USDA’s February Ag Outlook Forum projections provide a constructive but still fluid starting point for 2026/27, with total acreage slipping to 224 million acres as corn drops to 94 million and soybeans rebound to 85 million. Corn begins with a 183 BPA trend yield and 1.837 billion bushels of ending stocks, a workable but more sensitive balance sheet given that final yields and stocks have often come in below February assumptions. Soybeans are projected at 53 BPA with 355 million bushels of ending stocks, broadly steady but highly dependent on acreage realization and weather. Meanwhile, soybean oil stocks are forecast at 1.582 billion pounds alongside a sharp rise in biofuel demand, underscoring that policy-driven consumption will play a critical role in determining whether these early balance sheets ultimately tighten or remain comfortable.
According to a New York Times report, President Trump and senior advisors have indicated that the United States could scrap the United States–Mexico–Canada Agreement (USMCA) and instead pursue separate bilateral trade agreements with Canada and Mexico. U.S. officials are reportedly increasing pressure on Canada ahead of the 2026 review, while Canadian officials have suggested that the likelihood of a full trilateral renewal appears low. Some Canadian policymakers believe the strategy is designed to economically pressure Canada into rolling back certain protectionist policies. The article also notes that a similar tactic was used in 2018, when the U.S. negotiated a bilateral deal with Mexico and signaled that Canada would need to join on U.S. terms or risk being excluded. In response to rising uncertainty, Canada’s minister responsible for Canada–U.S. trade, François-Philippe LeBlanc, stated that Canadian firms from multiple provinces have signed 15 new commercial partnership agreements in Mexico, underscoring Ottawa’s effort to diversify trade relationships within North America.
U.S. ethanol stocks rose 1.4% on the week to 25.588 million barrels, slightly below expectations but up from 25.247 million the prior week, while remaining 2.4% below year-ago levels. Production increased to 1.118 million barrels per day, up 0.7% week-over-week and 3.1% higher year-over-year, though just under survey estimates. Regionally, the largest inventory build occurred on the Gulf Coast (+10.1%), while Midwest stocks declined 1.8%. Blender inputs climbed 3.0% to 0.866 million bpd, suggesting improved near-term demand. Overall, the report shows modest stock builds alongside steady production gains and stronger blending activity, indicating a balanced but slightly looser supply picture.
Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer sent a letter to Trump administration officials urging them to address foreign control over major U.S. food supply companies, calling it a strategic vulnerability and national security concern. He specifically cited JBS and National Beef, which are Brazilian-owned, along with Smithfield Foods and Syngenta Group, which are owned by Chinese parent companies. The letter, sent to the Agriculture Secretary, Treasury Secretary, and Attorney General, highlights growing political scrutiny over foreign ownership in key segments of the U.S. agricultural and protein supply chain.
China reported a $734.9 billion current account surplus in 2025, according to preliminary data from the State Administration of Foreign Exchange. However, this was offset by a $760.2 billion deficit in the capital and financial accounts (including net errors and omissions) for the year. In practical terms, that means while China generated a massive trade and income surplus, it simultaneously experienced significant net capital outflows — suggesting money left the country through portfolio flows, direct investment shifts, or other financial channels. The figures highlight continued structural trade strength but also persistent capital flow pressures within China’s financial system.
U.S. economic data showed a mixed but generally resilient picture. Initial jobless claims fell to 206K, well below both the prior week’s 229K and expectations of 225K, signaling continued labor market strength. The Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index rose to 16.3 from 12.6, sharply beating forecasts of 8.5 and marking the strongest reading since September, suggesting improving business activity in the manufacturing sector. However, the U.S. trade deficit widened significantly to $70.3 billion in December from $53 billion in November, reflecting a deterioration in the trade balance despite solid domestic economic momentum.
The latest U.S. trade data show the goods deficit widening more than expected in December, coming in at $98.5 billion versus estimates near $86 billion, contributing to a 2025 goods trade gap that has reached a new record. While the overall 2025 trade deficit sits at $901.5 billion — slightly narrower than 2024’s $903.5 billion — the bilateral goods deficit with China has narrowed significantly to $202.1 billion from $295.5 billion last year. Notably, U.S. goods exports to Canada fell to their lowest level since January 2022, highlighting softness in North American trade flows. The combination of a record goods deficit, weaker exports to Canada, and shifting China balances reinforces that trade dynamics remain fluid and politically sensitive, especially amid ongoing tariff discussions and USMCA uncertainty
Walmart reported fiscal fourth-quarter revenue of approximately $190.7 billion, up roughly 5–6% from a year ago, with adjusted earnings slightly above expectations. The company guided to fiscal 2027 sales growth of about 3.5% to 4.5% and offered earnings guidance that was somewhat cautious versus market forecasts, signaling a continued focus on value as consumers remain price sensitive. From an agriculture and livestock perspective, grocery sales continue to drive store traffic, supporting steady demand for meat, dairy, and staple food products. However, the tempered outlook suggests retailers expect ongoing competitive pricing pressure, which could keep margins tight throughout beef, poultry, and broader food supply chains.
Corn
S 1000 n 475 c vs b n 415 p 2 7/8 cr vs 444 3/4
B 1500 u 520 c vs s u 420 p 5 3/8 vs 446
B 1500 k 455 c 5 3/8 vs 434 3/4
S 450 u 370 p 2 1/4
B 1000 z 440p/480c strangles 41 1/8 to 41 7/8
S 500 nu -5 cso p 3 3/4
B 200 k 420 p 5 ½
S 200 sd z 460 straddles 37 to 36 1/2
B 200 sd m 460 p 14
B 1000 n 460 c 16 ¼ to 16 3/8
S 1000 sd n 460 c 17 1/4
B 500 u 475/480 cs 1
B 250 n 460/500 cs vs s 420 p ½ cr
B 250 u 460/510 cs vs s 420 p 1 ¾ cr
B 250 z 480/530 cs vs s 440 p 7 ¼ cr
B 200 u 610 c 2 5/8
S 2000 h 424 p 1 1/8 to 1
B 1000 u 530/580 cs 3
S 1000 h 427 c 1
B 400 n 450/480 cs vs s 420 p 5/8 to 3/8 cr
B 400 k 440 p 9 to 9 1/2
B 700 j 390 p 1/4
B 700 u 375 p 2 7/8
B 800 k 410 p 2 7/8 to 3 1/8
Beans
B 1500 x 1200/1300 cs vs s 1000 p 3 ½ db
B 250 j 1150p/1160c strangles 42 7/8 to 43 1/8
S 250 j 1070p/1240c strangles 5 5/8
S 250 j 1090p/1210c strangles 11
B 500 k 1170 c 26 1/2
B 250 j 1200/1250 cs 5 7/8
S 750 j 1150 c 24 to 23
B 800 j 1250 c 2 ¾ vs 1149 1/4
S 500 j 1150 c 23
B 1000 k 1200 c 16 ¾ to 17
B 300 n 1150 p 50 5/8 to 51 1/2
S 100 n 1350 c 6 1/2
S 500 n 1130 p vs b 1000 n 1080 p collecting 4
B 400 k 1180/1230 cs 11 3/8
S 300 j 1110 p 8 1/8 vs 1148 1/4
Soymeal
B 100 j 315 c 5.20 vs 309.0
S 200 n 300/270 ps 6.90 to 6.85 covered vs 311.9
Bean oil
B 2000 k 65/75 cs .920 vs 6000
S 2200 n 75 c 1.010 to 1.000
S 500 j 58/55 ps .910
B 1000 j 56 p vs s 1000 k 52 p .330 to .355
B 1500 k 56/52 ps and k 57/53 ps 2.110 to 2.130 vs 6000
B 1000 j 65 c .990 to 1.030
B 250 k 63/73 cs 1.725 to 1.730
S 250 n 60 c 4.405 to 4.390
B 100 k 63/68 cs vs s k 55 p .120 cr
B 100 k 64/74 cs 1.475
B 250 n 60/70 cs 2.685
S 250 k 58 p 2.400
B 500 n 50 p .755
S 300 n 60 c vs b 600 n 65 c 1.000 to 1.010 db
B 500 k 60 c 3.030 to 3.080
B 2000 k 51 p .475 to .520
S 100 j 57p/61c strangles 3.120 vs 5928
B 250 j 61/66 cs 1.170
B 200 w1 62 c .720
S 500 h 60 c .150
B 100 nz +3.00 cso c .550
S 600 nz +2.25 cso c vs b 1200 nz +4.50 cso c at even
On a block
B 2500 j 70 c .300
Wheat
B 2500 j 585 c 11 to 11 ½ vs 564 1/2
S 150 z 550p/630c strangles 61 ¾ vs 601
B 500 j 550 c 27 ½ to 27 3/4
B 250 j 570 c 16 3/8
B 1000 j 540 p 7 ¼ to 7 3/8
B 100 u 640 c 25 3/8
S 250 k 570/630 cs 14 3/8 vs 564
B 1000 w4 5 3/8 to 6 5/8
B 200 k 590 c 12 7/8
B 2000 j 590/640 cs 6 ¼ vs 560 1/2
B 300 j 575 c 14 5/8
B 200 k 575/595 cs vs s 525 p 1 cr
B 500 k 570/590 cs vs s 525 p 5/8 to ½ cr
S 500 j 540p/580c strangles 19 covered vs 560 1/2
B 2000 k 550/500 ps paying 15 ¼ covered vs 560
S 300 k 520 p vs b k 585 c collecting 7 ¼ vs 559
B 200 j 530/520 ps 2 1/8
Kc wheat
B 100 k 600 c 15
S 100 u 660 c 25 3/8
B 1500 j 565 p vs s 2000 j 545 p 17 ¾ db vs 571
B 100 k 520 p 5 1/4
S 100 k 540 p 11
B 500 n 510 p 7 1/4
B 250 j 550 p 8 ¾ vs 574
B 200 j 540/530 ps 2 3/8
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