President Trump indicated that the U.S. is actively assembling a multinational coalition to secure the Strait of Hormuz, with Secretary of State Marco Rubio expected to formally announce participating countries. He emphasized that deployment timing will vary, noting some nations are geographically closer and can respond more quickly. Trump signaled relatively strong support from France, stating President Macron has been “an 8 out of 10” in terms of cooperation and is likely to participate, while expressing frustration with the United Kingdom’s current stance but still expecting eventual involvement. Overall, the comments suggest coalition formation is progressing, though not yet fully finalized, with key allies still being brought into alignment.
President Trump said Iran is signaling a willingness to negotiate, but the U.S. lacks clarity on who is actually in charge, noting uncertainty around the status of senior leadership, including whether Ayatollah Khamenei is alive. He indicated there are individuals reaching out for talks, though their authority and legitimacy remain unclear. Trump framed recent U.S. actions as stabilizing, arguing they may have prevented a broader nuclear conflict, and called on countries like China, Japan, and South Korea to contribute more to the situation. He added that while he expects the conflict to conclude relatively soon, it will not be resolved within the current week. Meanwhile, U.S. intelligence assessments suggest Iran’s regime is likely to remain intact, though weakened and potentially more hard-line in its posture going forward.
The Trump administration is reportedly exploring the creation of a new “board of trade” with China as part of a broader effort to rebalance the U.S.–China economic relationship. The concept appears aimed at establishing a more structured, ongoing mechanism to manage trade flows, address imbalances, and potentially coordinate on disputes or market access issues, rather than relying solely on tariffs or ad hoc negotiations. This signals a shift toward a more institutional approach to trade management, though details remain limited and it is unclear how receptive China will be or what authority such a body would ultimately have.
Mexico’s Economy Ministry confirmed that its deputy minister is meeting with U.S. Trade Representative officials today to begin discussions tied to the USMCA review process. This signals an early step in what is expected to be a broader renegotiation or reassessment of the agreement, with focus likely on trade balances, rules of origin, and sector-specific issues such as agriculture, autos, and energy. The timing underscores that North American trade is moving into a more active negotiation phase alongside the wider U.S. push to reset global trade relationships.
The European Union is nearing completion of a long-delayed trade agreement with Australia, with reports that European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen could travel there as soon as this weekend to finalize and sign the deal. The agreement would strengthen economic ties by improving market access and reducing trade barriers across key sectors, including agriculture and industrial goods. Its timing highlights how other major economies are continuing to advance bilateral trade deals, potentially increasing competitive pressure on global exporters as trade relationships evolve.
The European Union is nearing completion of a long-delayed trade agreement with Australia, with reports that European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen could travel there as soon as this weekend to finalize and sign the deal. The agreement would strengthen economic ties by improving market access and reducing trade barriers across key sectors, including agriculture and industrial goods. Its timing highlights how other major economies are continuing to advance bilateral trade deals, potentially increasing competitive pressure on global exporters as trade relationships evolve.
China’s Ministry of Finance signaled that it will maintain a more proactive fiscal policy stance into 2026, with a clear focus on supporting domestic demand, strengthening technological self-reliance, and ensuring sufficient government spending to stabilize growth. The messaging reinforces Beijing’s commitment to using fiscal tools to offset external uncertainties and economic headwinds, while continuing to prioritize strategic sectors and internal consumption as key drivers of economic resilience.
Overnight options activity
Corn
S 500 j 450 p 5 1/8 to 5
S 500 k 465 p 20 1/8 to 20
B 1000 k 420 p 2 1/8 to 2 1/4
S 200 j 470 c 2 7/8
B 400 k 445 p 9 1/2
B 200 z 500 c vs s z 440 p 14 ¾ to 15 db
B 100 z 500/600 cs vs s 420 p 10 db
S 500 u 430 p 13 to 12 1/8
S 500 j 450 p 5 ½ to 4 1/2
B 400 k 415 p 1 1/2
B 500 k 530 p 3 ¾ to 3 7/8
Beans
B 500 n 1200 c 35 5/8 to 36 7/8
B 1200 k 1200 c 18 5/8 to 22
S 250 j 1120 p 6 ¾ to 6 1/2
S 500 j 1240/1330 cs 1 1/2
S 400 j 1120 p 7 to 6 1/2
S 900 n 1170 p 50 to 47
S 1000 k 1150 p 33
Soymeal
S 100 z 295p/330c strangles 22.65 vs 311.5
B 100 m 300p/330c strangles 11.25 vs 313.3
B 150 k 330p/330c strangles 7.95 vs 312.8
Open interest changes
Corn
July 550/600 cs sale and july 475/510 cs buys were rolling shorts....july 500 call sale and w3 465/485 cs buys were new....april 500 call sale, july 450 call buy, may 500 call buy and july 470 call sales were closing ....april 460/470 call spread buy and july 435/415 put spread buys were rolling longs
Beans
July nov 80/140 call spread sale, july nov 70/130 call spread sales and july 1050 put buys were closing...may 1170 put sale, april 1150 put buy, july 1200 call sale, aug 1240 call buy, short aug 1180 call sales and april 1180/1150 put spreads sales were new
Soymeal
April 330 call sale, april 350 call sale and april 310/305 put spread sales were closing
Bean oil
May 70/75 call spread sale and may 70 call sales were closing....july 67/77 call spread buy and july 62 put buys were new
Wheat
July 590/550 put spread buy and dec 550 puts sales were new
Kc wheat
Dec 560 put buys were new
Cvol
Ags 25.80% down .38%
Corn 28.42% up 1.03% (6 month high)
Beans 25.93% up .53% (1 year high)
Soymeal 26.85% down 1.44%
Bean oil 39.10% up .80%
Wheat 41.53% down 8.97%
Feeder cattle 20.70% down 1.48%
Live cattle 18.85% down 1.28%
Lean hogs 19.20% down .85%
Class 3 milk 22.09% up .43%
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