President Trump said the planned meeting with China is being rescheduled and is now expected to take place in about five weeks, signaling that dialogue between the two sides remains active. He emphasized a positive working relationship with President Xi and expressed optimism about the upcoming meeting, suggesting continued engagement on trade and broader economic issues despite recent tensions.
The U.S. is moving to ease Venezuela oil sanctions in an effort to boost global crude supply as the Iran conflict disrupts flows and drives energy prices higher. The policy shift would allow greater foreign participation in Venezuela’s oil sector and expand exports, including petrochemicals and fertilizers, to help offset supply shortages and ease inflation pressures. While Venezuela cannot rapidly increase production due to infrastructure constraints, the move signals a broader U.S. strategy of prioritizing global energy supply stability. For markets, this is modestly bearish for crude in the short term and could put downward pressure on fertilizer prices, with indirect implications for U.S. crop economics and biofuel-driven demand.
President Trump indicated he plans to discuss trade with Ireland’s Prime Minister Micheal Martin and expressed optimism about expanding the U.S.–Ireland relationship. The comments suggest a focus on deepening bilateral economic ties, potentially including trade, investment, and business cooperation, as part of broader efforts to strengthen transatlantic partnerships.
EU lawmakers are expected to vote this week on legislation to implement key elements of the EU–U.S. trade agreement, marking a critical step toward formalizing recently negotiated terms. The vote signals progress in transatlantic trade alignment, with a focus on reducing barriers, improving market access, and strengthening economic cooperation. If approved, it would begin translating the broader political agreement into actionable policy, with potential implications for trade flows, regulatory alignment, and competitiveness across key sectors, including agriculture, manufacturing, and energy.
The latest U.S. data presents a mixed economic picture. The NY Fed Services Business Activity index remained deeply negative at -22.6, signaling continued contraction in the services sector despite a slight improvement from the prior month. In contrast, housing showed some resilience, with pending home sales rising 1.8% in February after a prior decline, suggesting stabilization in demand. Meanwhile, labor market momentum appears to be softening at the margin, as ADP employment growth slowed to 9K from 15.5K, pointing to a cooling—but not collapsing—jobs environment.
Chinese state-owned oil companies have resumed purchasing Russian crude following a U.S. waiver, signaling a partial easing of enforcement pressure and a re-opening of trade flows between the two countries. The move highlights China’s continued willingness to secure discounted Russian barrels when policy conditions allow, while also underscoring how U.S. sanctions flexibility can quickly shift global energy trade dynamics. This development could increase Russian export volumes, stabilize supply chains, and weigh on global crude prices at the margin, while reinforcing the strategic energy alignment between China and Russia.
The U.S. and Japan are reportedly preparing to deepen strategic cooperation across critical supply chains and industrial capacity, with a formal agreement expected at next week’s summit. The deal centers on joint development of key minerals—including rare earths, copper, and lithium—aimed at reducing dependence on China and securing inputs essential for energy, defense, and advanced manufacturing. In parallel, the two countries are set to collaborate on AI-driven shipbuilding technology, with Japan targeting a doubling of shipbuilding output by 2035. Backed by a reported $100 billion investment, the initiative signals a major push to rebuild industrial capacity, strengthen supply chain security, and align technological leadership between the two economies.
The EU is moving to delay the implementation of stricter bank capital requirements under the Fundamental Review of the Trading Book (FRTB), reflecting growing concern that tighter rules could hurt the competitiveness of European banks relative to global peers. Brussels is expected to introduce legislation after Easter that effectively softens or neutralizes the near-term impact of these requirements, buying time for the sector while policymakers assess international alignment. The decision highlights the tension between strengthening financial system resilience and maintaining the global competitiveness of EU financial institutions, especially as other jurisdictions have been slower to fully implement similar rules.
Outside Markets
Price
Change
% Change
Dow
47,582
234.00
0.49
Crude
94.69
(1.52)
-1.58
US Dollar
99.3750
0.045
0.05
Gold
4,977.34
(28.270)
-0.56
US 2/10 Swap
50.5350
(1.3230)
-
VIX
21.56
(0.81)
-
CBOT Ags Volume & Open Interest
Previous Volume
Change in OI
Options Volume
Change in Options OI
Corn
435,806
(20,438)
102,152
(5,458)
SRW
128,310
254
20,263
4,914
HRW
85,177
6,492
-
1,153
Soybeans
539,864
(39,117)
135,378
4,091
Meal
224,724
793
11,515
1,480
Oil
296,838
8,053
22,980
5,925
Feeders
21,931
(1,196)
6,188
998
Live Cattle
57,911
472
17,935
228
Hogs
76,472
(6,556)
18,080
2,652
Overnight options activity
Corn
B 500 q 600 c 6 to 6 3/8
B 200 sd n 500/550 cs 10 3/8
B 500 w2 500 c 2 ¼ to 2 5/8
Beans
B 650 k 1140 p vs s j 1160 p 4 ¾ db
B 100 j 1200 c 2 1/4
S 1000 j 1160 p 20 ½ to 19 1/2
B 300 n 1200 c 32 to 33
Soymeal
B 500 k 325/330 cs 1.15 to 1.20
Bean oil
B 100 n 6450/5950 ps vs s n 70 c even
B 500 n 70 c 2.345 to 2.365
Wheat
B 300 k 650 c 9 ¾ to 10 1/2
Kc wheat
B 100 n 650/750 cs 18
Open interest changes
CME DATA HAS NOT BEEN UPDATED
Cvol
Ags 24.09% down 1.71%
Corn 27.77% down .65%
Beans 22.19% down 3.74%
Soymeal 23.65% down 3.20%
Bean oil 38.31% down .79%
Wheat 37.63% down 3.89%
Feeder cattle 19.51% down 1.19%
Live cattle 18.13% down .72%
Lean hogs 18.14% down 1.06%
Class 3 milk 21.71% down .38%
Corn
Beans
Soymeal
Bean oil
Wheat
Kc wheat
Miax wheat
Oats
Rough rice
Crush
Feeder cattle
Live cattle
Lean hogs
Grains & Oilseeds
This material should be construed as the solicitation of an account, order, and/or services and represents the opinions and viewpoints of the individual authors or presenters. It does not constitute an individualized recommendation or take into account the particular trading objectives, financial situations, or needs of individual customers.
The views are current only through the date stated and are subject to change at any time based upon market or other conditions, and StoneX Group Inc. (“SGI”) disclaims any responsibility to update such views. Actual results, performance, or achievements may differ materially from those expressed or implied. Information is based on data gathered from what we believe are reliable sources. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
The StoneX Group Inc. group of companies provides financial services worldwide through its subsidiaries, including physical commodities, securities, exchange-traded and over-the-counter derivatives, risk management, global payments and foreign exchange products in accordance with applicable law in the jurisdictions where services are provided.
References to certain OTC products or swaps are made on behalf of StoneX Markets, LLC (SXM), a member of the National Futures Association (NFA) and provisionally registered with the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as a swap dealer. SXM’s products are designed only for individuals or firms who qualify under CFTC rules as an ‘Eligible Contract Participant’ and who have been accepted as customers of SXM.
StoneX Financial Inc. (SFI) is a member of FINRA/NFA/SIPC and registered with the MSRB. SFI is registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) as a Broker-Dealer and with the CFTC as a Futures Commission Merchant and Commodity Trading Advisor. StoneX Financial (Canada) Inc. (SFCI) is registered in Canada and is a member of CIRO and CIPF. References to certain securities trading are made on behalf of the BD Division of SFI and are intended only for an audience of institutional clients as defined by FINRA Rule 4512(c). References to certain exchange-traded futures and options are made on behalf of the FCM Division of SFI. Wealth Management is offered through SA Stone Wealth Management Inc., member FINRA/SIPC, and SA Stone Investment Advisors Inc., an SEC-registered investment advisor, both wholly owned subsidiaries of SGI.
R.J. O’Brien & Associates, LLC (RJO) is registered with the CFTC as a Futures Commission Merchant and is a member of NFA.
StoneX Financial Ltd (SFL) is registered in England and Wales, company no. 5616586. SFL is authorized and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) (registration number FRN:446717) to provide services to professional and eligible customers including: arrangement, execution and, where required, clearing derivative transactions in exchange traded futures and options. SFL is also authorized to engage in the arrangement and execution of transactions in certain OTC products, certain securities trading, precious metals trading and payment services to eligible customers. SFL is authorized and regulated by the FCA under the Payment Services Regulations 2017 for the provision of payment services. SFL is a category 1 ring-dealing member of the London Metal Exchange. In addition SFL also engages in other physically delivered commodities business and other general business activities which are unregulated and not required to be authorized by the FCA.
This communication is issued in the European Economic Area by StoneX Financial Europe GmbH (SFEG). StoneX is the trade name used by STONEX GROUP INC. and all its associated entities and subsidiaries. StoneX Financial Europe GmbH (“SFEG”) is a securities trading firm registered in Germany under Company No. HRB 80844.
StoneX Financial Pte Ltd (Co. Reg. No 201130598R) (“SFP”) is regulated by the Monetary Authority of Singapore and is a Capital Markets Service Licence holder (for dealing in capital market products), an Exempt Financial Adviser (for advising on investment products and issuing or promulgating analyses/ reports on investment products) and a Major Payment Institution (for domestic and cross-border money transfer services).
SFP may distribute analysis/report produced by its respective foreign affiliates within the StoneX Group of companies pursuant to an arrangement under Regulation 32C of the Financial Advisers Regulations Recipients should contact SFP at (65) 6309 1000 for any matters arising from, or in connection with, this webinar.
StoneX APAC Pte. Ltd. (“SAP”) (Co. Reg. No 200616676W) is regulated as a Dealer (PS20190001002) under the Precious Stones and Precious Metals (Prevention of Money Laundering and Terrorism Financing) Act 2019 for purposes of anti-money laundering and countering the financing of terrorism.
StoneX Financial (HK) Limited (CE No.: BCQ152) (“SHK”) is regulated by the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission for Dealing in Securities and Dealing in Futures Contracts.
StoneX Financial Pty Ltd (ACN 141 774 727) holds an Australian Financial Service License (AFSL: 345646) for Dealing in Securities, Exchange-Traded Derivatives Contracts, OTC Derivatives Contracts and Foreign Exchange Contracts, and is regulated by the Australian Securities and Investments Commission.
StoneX Securities Co., Ltd. (“SSJ”) (Co. Reg. No 010401047199) is regulated by the Japanese Financial Services Agency as a Type-I Financial Instruments Business Operator (Kanto Local Finance Bureau (FIBO)No.291’), is a member of the Financial Futures Association of Japan for dealing and broking FX and FX Option transactions, and is a member of the Japan Securities Dealers Association for dealing and broking stock indices and option transactions.
Trading swaps and over-the-counter derivatives, exchange-traded derivatives and options and securities involves substantial risk and is not suitable for all investors. Past performance of any futures or option is not indicative of future success. Indicators are not a trading system and are not published as a specific trade recommendation. The information herein is not a recommendation to trade nor investment research or an offer to buy or sell any derivative or security. It does not take into account your particular investment objectives, financial situation or needs and does not create a binding obligation on any of the StoneX group of companies to enter into any transaction with you. You are advised to perform an independent investigation of any transaction to determine whether any transaction is suitable for you. No part of this material may be copied, photocopied or duplicated in any form by any means or redistributed without the prior written consent of StoneX Group Inc.
The report/analysis herein is not directed to, or intended for distribution to or use by, any person or entity who is a citizen or resident of or located in any locality, state, country or other jurisdiction where such distribution, publication, availability or use would be contrary to law or regulation.
Our market expertise, advanced platforms, global reach, culture of full transparency and commitment to our clients’ success all set us apart in the financial marketplace.
Reach
With access to 40+ derivatives exchanges, 180+ foreign exchange markets, nearly every global securities marketplace and numerous bilateral liquidity venues, StoneX’s digital network and deep relationships can take clients anywhere they want to go.
Transparency
As a publicly traded company meeting the highest standards of regulatory compliance in the markets we serve, our financials and track record are matters of public record. StoneX’s commitment to “doing the right thing over the easy thing” sets us apart in the industry and helps us build respect, client trust and new partnerships.
Expertise
From our proprietary Market Intelligence platform to “boots-on-the-ground” expertise from award-winning traders and professionals, we connect our clients directly to actionable insights they can use to make more informed decisions and achieve their goals in the global markets.
