Today was the first day of the Goldman Roll.
Brazil’s March export data from Bloomberg shows a subtle but important shift in trade flows, with soybean exports essentially flat year-over-year despite a notable 10% drop in shipments to China—the first decline since mid-2025—offset by stronger demand from secondary markets like Europe and Turkey. This suggests China demand is softening at the margin while Brazil is successfully redistributing supply. On the corn side, exports rose nearly 13% year-over-year, driven heavily by a surge in shipments to Egypt and Malaysia, indicating opportunistic demand rather than broad-based strength. Overall, the data points to stable but evolving demand patterns, with diversification in soybean buyers and more concentrated, destination-specific strength in corn exports.
Bloomberg survey points to steady but unspectacular demand ahead of the USDA export sales report, with corn expected around 1.19 MMT, slightly below last week but still strong versus last year, keeping exports as a key support in the balance sheet. Soybean sales near 388k tons suggest stabilization rather than strength during Brazil’s peak export window, while soybean meal remains firm enough to reinforce solid global protein demand and ongoing crush support, and soybean oil exports stay minimal. Wheat sales are modestly improved year-over-year but still not indicative of the U.S. gaining significant global share. Overall, the data reinforces a market structure defined by steady corn demand, rangebound soybeans under seasonal pressure, and strength driven more by products and crush economics than outright export surges.
U.S. ethanol stocks rose modestly to 26.053 million barrels, coming in slightly below expectations, while production jumped to 1.116 million barrels per day—well above survey estimates and continuing to run ahead of the pace needed to meet USDA targets. At the same time, blender demand softened slightly on the week, allowing inventories to build despite still running below year-ago levels. Overall, the report leans mildly bearish in the near term, as strong production paired with weaker blending suggests a gradually loosening balance unless demand improves.
Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf has declared that three clauses of the US-Iran ceasefire proposal have already been violated. He posted on X that a bilateral ceasefire or negotiations is “unreasonable” and that the foundational basis for negotiations had been openly violated even before talks began. This comes alongside a separate report confirming that US-Iran peace talks are set to take place in Pakistan.
Chris Phelan, a Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis adviser and University of Minnesota professor with a University of Chicago Ph.D., is reportedly the leading candidate to become Trump’s chief economist and chair the Council of Economic Advisers. He would replace Stephen Miran, who stepped down in February. The potential nomination comes amid falling approval ratings for Trump on economic issues, driven by rising gas prices and cost-of-living concerns. The White House dismissed the report as speculation, and Phelan did not comment.
Corn
B 1000 z 450/475 cs 11 1/2
B 1500 z 570 c 10 ¾ to 10 7/8
B 1000 n 510 c vs s n 435 p 3 ¼ cr vs 456 1/4
S 800 n 455 straddles 36 ½ to 35 3/8
B 2000 u 520 c vs s u 425 p 5/8 db vs 460
B 4000 u 480/500 cs 5 1/8 vs 458 1/2
S 2000 sd m 465p/490c strangles 16 3/8 to 15 1/2
B 500 m 435/420 ps 2 3/4
S 1000 z 510 c 21 vs 476 3/4
S 1000 n 480 c 9 5/8 vs 455
S 200 u 470 c 23 vs 458 1/2
B 1500 k 450/440 ps 4 ¾ vs 447 1/4
B 500 k 455 p 12 to 13
S 500 k 445 p 5 3/4
S 2000 sd n 460 p 10 7/8 to 10 1/4
S 2000 n 450 p 15 1/8 to 15
B 200 n 790 c 1/4
S 1000 z 600 c 7 3/4
S 500 u 550 c 7 1/4
S 800 m 550 c 5/8
S 2000 z 550 c vs 471 against b 2000 n 500 c vs 454 collecting 6 1/8
B 1300 z 450p/490c strangles 48 covered vs 471 1/2
B 500 k 455 p 13
B 1000 k 460 p 17
S 700 u 550/650 cs 5
B 300 u 550 c 7 3/8
B 125 u 480 c vs s 250 u 500 c 9 ¾ cr
B 500 k 450 c 4 3/8
B 900 k 455 c vs s 1800 k 470 c 1 ¼ db
B 600 u 460/480/560/580 call condors 5 ½ db
B 200 z 580 c 8 7/8
On a block
S 1000 n 470 c 13 ¼ vs 457 1/2
S 1000 sd k 500 c 5/8
Beans
B 500 m 1230 c 10
B 300 k 1160 straddles 28 1/2
S 600 q 1200 c 33
B 1000 w2 1060 p vs s 2000 w2 1050 p 1 to 1 1/8 db
B 1000 n 1360 c 3 5/8 vs 1176 1/4
B 100 n 1200 c 26 ¼ vs 1176
S 400 nx +30 cso p 16
B 250 m 1130 p 10
B 300 k 1150 p 11 3/8
B 200 m 1240 c 7 ¾
B 500 m 1250 c 6 3/8
B 2500 w2 1150/1140 ps 2 3/8 to 2 1/2
S 100 n 1200 c 25 ¾
Soymeal
B 250 z 330 c 10.85 to 11.05
S 500 k 340 c .40 to .30
B 1000 k 310 vs s 2000 k 300 p 1.80 to 1.85
B 200 k 320/330 cs 1.90
B 100 q 340/400 cs vs s 305 p collecting 5.60
B 500 k 310 p vs s 1000 k 300 p 1.85 db
Bean oil
B 500 k 71/7250 cs .210
B 1000 m 72 c 1.00 to 1.110
S 500 k 66 p .810 to .805
B 2000 k 6550 p .710 to .730
B 500 k 66 p .850 vs 6730
B 150 k 65/62 ps .485 vs 6732
B 300 k 71 c .460 vs 6740
B 150 v 76 c 1.400 vs 6372
S 4000 n 70/75 cs 1.230 to 1.200
S 1000 n 65 p 2.285 to 2.230
B 300 m 68 c 2.350 vs 6738
B 500 z 65/70 cs vs s 56 p collecting .300
B 200 u 65 p 4.240
B 500 k 68 p vs s 1000 k 6550 p .300 db vs 6745
B 200 n 67/62 ps 2.100
On a block
S 1100 k 5650 c 11.140 vs 6765
Wheat
S 250 k 580 straddles 28 1/4
B 500 k 580 put 14 ½ vs 579 1/2
B 100 u 640;750 cs 20 3/4
B 100 u 570/750 cs 48 7/8
S 250 n 600 c 29 ½ vs 589
B 500 k 600/650 cs 7 vs 582 1/2
S 100 n 590 p 33 1/4
S 500 w2 580 p 4 1/2
S 200 k 650 c 1 1/2
S 1000 q 500/480 ps 1 3/4
On a block
S 650 n 595 p 34 5/8 vs 594 3/4
Kc wheat
S 1000 k 700 c 7/8
B 2000 k 600/630 cs 8 5/8 vs 596
S 250 k 560/540 ps 1 ½
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