Today was day 2 of 5 for the Goldman roll.
Brazil is considering increasing its ethanol blend mandate in gasoline from 30% to 32% in the first half of 2026, a move aimed at easing consumer fuel costs amid rising global energy prices while simultaneously supporting its sugarcane ethanol industry. The policy shift comes as the country faces a surplus of biofuel supply, and higher blending would help absorb excess ethanol, reduce stockpiles, and improve margins for mills. The accelerated timeline signals a more aggressive response than expected, driven in part by pressure from elevated crude prices tied to geopolitical tensions, and suggests stronger near-term domestic ethanol demand alongside improved pricing dynamics for producers.
The WASDE is largely a status quo report across all three markets, but the subtle shifts lean slightly bearish overall. In corn, U.S. ending stocks hold at 2.127 billion bushels with no change to yield or production, while world stocks increase to roughly 295 MMT, reinforcing the idea of comfortable global supply and limiting upside unless demand improves or weather becomes a factor. Soybeans are similarly steady domestically, with U.S. ending stocks unchanged at 350 million bushels and production held at 4.262 billion, but slightly lower world stocks near 125 MMT offer mild support, especially as the market continues to pivot toward stronger crush demand versus exports. Wheat stands out as the most bearish component, with both U.S. and global ending stocks increasing, including world stocks rising to 283 MMT, highlighting ample supply and continued pressure on prices. Overall, the report lacks a bullish catalyst, with corn and wheat weighed down by burdensome global stocks, while soybeans remain relatively better supported due to tightening global balances and improving biofuel-driven demand.
Export sales this week reinforced a clear split across the grain complex, with corn demand continuing to exceed expectations while soybeans lag and wheat remains steady. Corn sales of 1.37 MMT were well above the needed pace, underscoring strong and consistent export demand that is increasingly supporting the balance sheet and pointing toward potential USDA revisions higher. In contrast, soybean sales at 295k MT were seasonally soft and entirely old crop, highlighting the market’s reliance on domestic crush rather than export demand during Brazil’s peak shipping window. Wheat sales at 254k MT were modest but stable, with weather—particularly ongoing Plains dryness—remaining the primary driver. Overall, the data confirms corn as the demand leader, soybeans as crush-dependent, and wheat as weather-driven.
China’s Commerce Ministry struck a constructive tone toward the EU, signaling openness to advancing and finalizing trade agreements, which points to a mutual effort to deepen ties and diversify away from the U.S. amid ongoing trade uncertainty. While both sides have been hedging and exploring alternative partnerships, the broader reality is that each maintains significant trade surpluses with the U.S.—and China with the rest of the world—meaning the status quo remains economically favorable. As a result, any shift is likely to be incremental rather than a wholesale realignment of global trade flows.
Geopolitical signals remain mixed and fluid, with U.S. and Iranian delegations set to begin direct talks Saturday, while reports suggest the U.S. has urged Israel to scale back strikes in Lebanon. Despite that, messaging out of Israel remains firm on continuing pressure against Hezbollah, and there is conflicting information on whether Israel-Lebanon talks will even take place, especially as Hezbollah has rejected any direct negotiations. Meanwhile, tensions across the Gulf continue to disrupt energy markets, with strikes impacting Saudi facilities and reducing oil output, and Iran’s IRGC outlining alternative shipping routes amid concerns over sea mines. Under the reported ceasefire framework, vessel traffic through the Strait of Hormuz would also be restricted to 15 ships per day, highlighting ongoing constraints and elevated risk to global energy flows.
Recent data shows a steady labor market alongside persistent inflation pressures. Initial jobless claims rose modestly to 219k, but continuing claims declined, indicating no clear signs of labor market weakening or impact from geopolitical tensions. February PCE inflation met expectations, with both headline and core rising 0.4% month-over-month and core at 3.0% year-over-year, still above the Fed’s target. Strength in goods inflation drove much of the increase, while personal income declined and spending came in softer than expected, suggesting demand was already slowing before the recent surge in energy prices, which is likely to push inflation higher in the near term.
Corn
S 3000 k 440 p 4 to 3 1/4
B 250 sd q 490 c 18
B 1000 n 455 c 17
B 100 u 450 p 22 1/4
B 200 z 500 c 23 5/8 to 23 7/8
B 750 sd m 480/520 cs 6 1/2
B 300 n 510 calls vs selling the 470 puts collecting 18 7/8 to 18 1/2
S 750 n 480/520 cs 6 3/4
B 1000 u 500/550 cs 8 1/8
B 250 z 580 c 9 ¾
S 1000 u 500 c 14 ¼ to 14 1/8
B 1000 u 550 c 6 7/8 to 7
B 1000 z 480/530 cs 10 1/4
B 200 z 400 p 5
S 400 m 550 c 5/8
B 500 sd u 660 c 2 ¼ to 2 1/2
B 500 kn -11 cso c 1 1/4
S 500 u 500 c 15 1/8 covered vs 460 1/2
B 150 n 410 p 2 3/8
B 100 q 690 c 1 1/8
S 1000 sd n 510/520 cs 3/4
B 300 q 600 c 2 5/8
B 500 n 455 p 16 ¾ to 16 7/8
S 3000 k 500 c 1/4
S 500 n 570 c 1 3/8
On a block
S 650 n 490 c 8 1/8 vs 459
S 800 z 475 straddles 66 1/8
Beans
B 700 n 1240/1440 cs 14 vs 1179 1/2
S 3000 k 1170 p 17 ½ to 16
B 500 k 1150/1140 ps 2 7/8
B 1000 n 1250 c 13 to 13 1/8
B 500 k 1200 c 2 ½
B 1000 k 1150 p 7 to 7 1/2
B 800 n 1360 c 3 1/2
S 200 sd n 1200 c 14 1/2
S 350 k 1160 straddles 26 1/4
S 1000 n 1200/1270 cs 17 to 16 7/8 vs 1182 1/2
B 5750 july 1320/1360/1400 call trees from 1/8 credit to even
S 300 n 1250 c 13 7/8 vs 1182 1/4
B 1000 k 1150 p 7
S 3000 k 1170 p 17 to 16
B 200 x 1200/1400 cs vs s n 1220/1370 cs 13 db
S 650 k 1180 c vs b 975 k 1200 c 5 5/8 cr vs 1165
B 500 k 1150/1140 ps 2 7/8
Soymeal
B 250 k 325 p 10.50
B 500 n 320/330 cs 3.10
S 250 k 315 p 3.85 to 3.80
S 500 k 340 c .65 vs 317.8
B 500 k 315 c vs s k 315 p 2.80 db
B 500 q 320 c vs s k 315 c 5.30 to 5.35 db
B 125 q 320 c 10.60
B 500 k 330 c 1.30
B 1000 k 345 c .30
B 3000 k 330 c 1.25 to 1.95
B 200 n 315 p vs s 400 n 300 p 2.20 db
S 200 k 315 p 4.20 to 4.10
B 1500 n 320 c 9.85
S 500 k 320 p 7.30 to 6.90
Bean oil
B 3000 k 65 p .610 to .655
B 100 z 65/75 cs vs s 55 p 1.100
S 300 k 70 c .780 to .740
S 500 n 6550 p 2.500
B 100 k 67 p 1.100
B 1000 n 6550 p 2.165 vs 6335
B 200 k 63 c vs s 400 k 70 c 3.845 vs 6855
B 500 k 70/74 cs .640
B 100 n 70/75 cs vs s 65 p .785 db
Wheat
B 150 m 650 c 5 7/8
S 200 n 620 c 19 1/2
S 300 k 580 straddles 26 5/8
B 1000 m 630/680/730 call flies 5 1/2
B 200 k 580 c vs s 400 k 600 collecting 1
S 300 k 600 c 10 to 9 7/8
B 200 n 930 c ¾
B 200 k 640/660 cs 1
B 200 m 570 p 12 ¼ vs 598
B 300 k 585/610 cs 7 to 7 1/8
B 250 k 550 p 3 3/8
B 750 k 600/630 cs 2 ½ to 2 5/8
S 200 n 670 c 5 3/4
B 200 m 590 p 24
On a block
B 450 n 655 c 15 ¾ vs 593
Kc wheat
S 500 n 550 p 8
S 2000 k 580 p 8 ¼ to 7
B 150 k 700 c 7/8
B 800 n 610 c 32 5/8
S 500 n 670 c 13 7/8
S 750 n 690 c 10 to 9 ¾
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