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CBOT Grains Daily Options Report

By: PJ Quaid, Senior VP, Agricultural Commodities

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USDA report today at 11:00 am and today is day 2 of 5 for the Goldman roll. 

 

The ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran remains highly fragile, with conflicting demands and continued military activity undermining stability. Donald Trump signaled a hardline stance, keeping U.S. forces in place and warning of significant escalation if terms are violated, while negotiations remain unclear with multiple competing proposals, as noted by JD Vance ahead of talks in Islamabad. Tensions are being driven by a key disagreement over Lebanon, where Iran is demanding a ceasefire extension while Benjamin Netanyahu has indicated operations will continue, leading to renewed strikes, Hezbollah retaliation, and threats of further Iranian response. With ongoing attacks across the region, rising casualties, and warnings from the UN, the situation remains unstable, suggesting the ceasefire is more of a temporary pause than a lasting resolution.

 

Energy secretary Chris Wright warned that California’s ongoing energy challenges under Gavin Newsom could pose broader national security risks, highlighting concerns that instability in one of the country’s largest energy markets may have ripple effects beyond the state, particularly as the U.S. navigates tighter global energy conditions.

 

U.S. crude exports are set to reach a record high in April, driven by strong demand from Asian buyers seeking to diversify away from Middle Eastern supply amid ongoing geopolitical tensions. This shift highlights how disruptions and uncertainty in the region are actively reshaping global energy flows, with U.S. barrels becoming a preferred alternative due to reliability and availability, reinforcing the U.S.’s growing role as a key swing supplier in the global oil market.

 

The latest FOMC minutes point to a broadly cautious and flexible policy stance, with officials largely united in holding rates steady at 3.50–3.75% while acknowledging significant uncertainty tied to Middle East developments. Policymakers indicated it is still too early to assess the economic impact of the conflict, but many expect rate cuts to become appropriate over time if inflation continues to ease. At the same time, several members emphasized a two-sided risk framework, noting that persistent inflation—potentially driven by higher oil prices—could justify renewed rate hikes, while a prolonged conflict that weakens the labor market could instead require additional easing. Overall, the Fed is signaling a data-dependent approach with balanced risks, rather than a clear directional bias.

 

Feds Mary Daly struck a broadly constructive tone on the U.S. economy, noting that underlying fundamentals remain solid with continued consumer spending and business investment. She characterized the labor market as stabilizing in a healthy position and emphasized that longer-term inflation expectations remain well anchored, suggesting the Fed still sees the current backdrop as stable rather than deteriorating.

 

image-20260409044207-1

 

 

 

Overnight options activity 

Corn

B 3800 m 520 c 1 3/8 to 1 1/2

B 100 n 460 p 18 3/4

S 100 n 455 straddles 35 5/8

B 150 n 435/425 ps 2 3/4

 

Beans

S 400 k 1180 c 6 7/8 to 6 3/4

S 500 k 1160 p 12 1/2

 

Bean oil

B 100 n 56 p .300

 

Open interest changes

Corn

Sept 550/600 call spread sale, sept 520 call buy, dec 550 call sale and july 500 call buys were closing....sept 425 put sale, short june 465p/480c strangle sale, short july 460 put sales and dec 450p/490c strangle buys were new.

 

Beans

July 1360 call buy was closing....w2 1150/1140 put spread buy was new

 

Soymeal

May 310/300 1x2 put spread buy was new

 

Bean oil

June 72 call buy and may 6550 put buys were new....july 70/75 call spread sale and may 5650 call sales were closing 

 

Wheat

Aug 500/480 put spread sale was new

 

Kc wheat

May 700 call sale was closing ....may 600/630 call spread buy was rolling a long 

 

Cvol

Ags 19.77% down 1.27%

Corn 20.00% down 2.75%

Beans 16.69% down .35%

Soymeal 21.19% down .34%

Bean oil 29.31% down 1.16%

Wheat 32.52% down 5.66%

Feeder cattle 18.32% down 1.16%

Live cattle 16.64% down .07%

Lean hogs 18.64% down .02%

Class 3 milk 21.40% down .50%

 

Corn

image-20260409044207-2

Beans

image-20260409044207-3

Soymeal

image-20260409044207-4

Bean oil

image-20260409044207-5

Wheat 

image-20260409044207-6

Kc wheat

image-20260409044207-7

Miax wheat 

image-20260409044207-8

Oats

image-20260409044207-9

Rough rice

image-20260409044207-10

Feeder cattle 

image-20260409044207-11

Live cattle 

image-20260409044207-12

Lean hogs

image-20260409044207-13

 

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