PJ Quaid
The April 20 crop progress report points to a smooth and slightly accelerated start for U.S. row crops, with corn planting at 11% (in line with last year but ahead of average) and emergence running notably strong, while soybeans at 12% planted are well ahead of both last year and normal pace, reinforcing early-season momentum. Other crops are mixed but largely uneventful, with cotton near normal and oats slightly lagging. The key shift is in wheat, where winter wheat conditions deteriorated week-over-week, with good/excellent dropping to 30% and poor/very poor rising to 33%, even as development runs ahead of normal, highlighting ongoing Plains stress. Overall, the report leans mildly bearish for corn and soybeans given favorable planting conditions, while wheat carries a more supportive tone due to declining crop health.
Brazil’s latest BCB economist poll points to a more hawkish rates outlook, with the 2026 Selic view rising to 13.00% from 12.5% and 2027 increasing to 11.0% from 10.5%, reinforcing a “higher-for-longer” policy path. The shift suggests inflation risks remain sticky enough to delay easing, keeping real rates elevated and supporting the Brazilian real through carry, while also tightening financial conditions and raising longer-term growth concerns.
Kalshi, a federally regulated prediction market platform, is expanding its commodities offerings to include corn, soybeans, and wheat, along with other markets like sugar, copper, coffee, and natural gas.
U.S. export inspections came in broadly firm this week, led by a sharp rebound in wheat and steady strength in corn and soybeans. Wheat inspections jumped to 518k tons, nearly doubling last week’s pace and signaling improved near-term demand after a soft stretch. Corn remained the anchor at 1.67 MMT, holding near recent elevated levels and continuing to reflect strong global competitiveness and shipment flow. Soybean inspections at 749k tons were modestly higher week-over-week and remain solid for this point in the marketing year, particularly given heavy South American competition. Overall, the data reinforces that U.S. corn exports are still doing the heavy lifting, wheat is showing signs of life, and soybeans are stable but not accelerating, keeping the broader export narrative constructive but still uneven across commodities.
A report from the U.S. Department of Justice, cited by The Wall Street Journal, indicates a criminal investigation into major U.S. beef companies, raising the stakes around potential antitrust or pricing practices within the packing sector. While the development does not immediately impact supply-demand fundamentals, it introduces a meaningful policy and regulatory overhang for the industry. Near term, markets are likely to treat this as headline risk, but if the probe advances, it could pressure packer margins and gradually shift leverage back toward cattle producers, adding longer-term uncertainty to the structure of the beef supply chain.
The U.S. is preparing to host additional G20 discussions focused on food and fertilizer security in the coming weeks, signaling growing concern over supply chain disruptions and rising input costs. The initiative, led by the U.S. Department of the Treasury, aims to coordinate international action to stabilize fertilizer availability and protect global food production. For markets, this underscores that fertilizer has become a strategic issue at the policy level, with potential implications for input costs, crop margins, and global production decisions if coordinated action either alleviates or fails to resolve current supply constraints.
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva is signaling support for the upcoming Mercosur–European Union trade agreement while pushing back on European criticism of Brazil’s agricultural and biofuel sectors. He emphasized Brazil’s relatively clean energy mix and called out what he described as “false claims” about its farming practices, framing EU environmental and sustainability standards as potential trade barriers. With the deal set to take effect May 1 and create a roughly 720 million-person market, the headline opportunity is meaningful expansion in trade flows, but ongoing friction around ESG rules and biofuel policy is likely to remain a key variable shaping how much of that access is actually realized for Brazilian agriculture.
Corn
B 4500 n 420 p 3 1/8
S 500 n 450 p 11 ½
B 2000 n 480/520 cs 6 5/8
B 1000 u 500/550 cs 8 3/8
B 350 m 460 straddles 20 ¾
B 100 h 500/570 cs vs s 440 p 5 3/8
B 100 u 710 c 1 5/8
B 500 sd n 490/510 cs vs s 465 p 1 ½ cr to even
B 100 u 410 p vs s 200 u 380 p 2 1/8 db
B 2000 u 530 c vs 461 against s 2000 z 560 c vs 477 collecting 2 1/4
B 300 sd n 450 p 4 3/8
B 500 m 460 c 10 ¼ to 10 3/8
B 300 m 495/520 cs 1 1/8
S 100 sd k 480 straddles 6 5/8
B 2000 n 480/520 cs 6 5/8
B 400 m 460 c vs s 800 m 470 c collecting 3
S 650 m 460 c 10
S 200 k 450 c 5
B 200 z 600 c 7 ½
S 1000 k 445 p 2 ¼ to 1 1/4
S 500 k 455 c 1 5/8 to 1 1/4
S 500 k 450 c 3
S 500 k 453 c 2 ¼ to 2
B 700 n 460 straddles 34 1/8 to 34 1/4
On a block
S 1000 z 490 straddles 69
B 500 n 450 c 22 ½ vs 461
B 1000 n 470 p 23
B 500 n 485 c vs s n 430 p 2 ¾ db vs 458
S 500 n 485 c 8 vs 457 3/4
Beans
S 900 k 1130 p 1/4
S 1000 k 1150 p 1 1/8
S 200 x 1160 c 52 vs 1158 ½
B 100 x 1280 c 19
B 500 u 1100 p 21
B 500 k 1180 c 1 5/8
B 500 m 1140 p 5 1/2
B 250 m 1150 c 38 7/8
Soymeal
S 500 n 340 c 5.55 to 5.30
S 100 n 320 c 12.45 to 12.25
S 500 k 325 p 2.45
B 250 n 305 p 4.65
B 100 u 300 p 8.35
B 300 u 320/330/390/400 call condors 2.85 db
S 1000 k 325 p 3.10 to 2.10
B 750 n 350 c 8.00 to 9.00
S 500 k 330/340 cs 2.10 to 1.50
S 600 n 320/315 ps 2.35
S 400 m 320 straddles 16.35
Bean oil
B 500 m 70/74 cs 1.150
S 500 n 65 p 1.510
S 100 m 70/80 cs 1.425 vs 6850
B 100 m 70 c 1.490 vs 6850
B 600 k 68 p .425 to .620
B 500 k 70 c .625 to .650
S 100 n 68 c vs b 200 n 72 c .290 cr vs 6875
S 500 k 6850 p .510
S 400 n 70 c 2.650 to 2.500
S 500 n 62/60 ps .270
B 500 n 66/65 ps .345
B 250 z 100 c .255
Wheat
B 250 z 630/570 ps vs s z 700 c 1 ½ cr vs 634
S 200 m 610 straddles 43 3/4
B 100 m 930 c 3/8
B 100 k 600 c 5 1/2
B 200 n 490 p 1 1/8
On a block
B 800 z 650 straddles 107
Kc wheat
S 500 k 630 p 5 ¾ to 5 5/8
B 2000 k 640/650 cs 3 1/4
B 2000 m 675/726 cs vs 657 against s 2000 k 620 c vs 644 ¾ collecting 15 ¼ to 14 ½
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