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CBOT Grains Daily Options Report

By: PJ Quaid, Senior VP, Agricultural Commodities

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Today is day 4 of 5 for the Goldman roll....World Cup starts tomorrow so expect lesser participation in our markets.

 

USTR Greer’s comments suggest U.S.-Mexico trade discussions are picking up pace, with a Mexican trade team expected in the U.S. next week and Washington continuing to push for more domestic and regional sourcing of critical minerals. The broader theme is a continued effort to strengthen North American supply chains and reduce dependence on China-linked inputs, especially in strategic sectors like autos, batteries, energy, and industrial equipment. For markets, this keeps trade policy front and center, with potential support for North American manufacturing and mining investment, but also the risk of higher input costs as companies adjust sourcing.

 

Mexico is pushing back on the idea that South Korea is receiving a more favorable trade outcome from Washington than Mexico, despite Mexico being the U.S.’s closest manufacturing partner under USMCA. South Korea secured tariff relief tied to a major U.S. investment package, while Mexico remains under continued review on labor, rules of origin, agriculture, and “level playing field” issues. For markets, this keeps North American trade uncertainty alive into the next round of U.S.–Mexico talks, especially for autos, manufacturing inputs, and agriculture. The key point is not that Mexico is outside the U.S. trade framework, but that Mexico wants USMCA compliance to carry more weight than side deals struck with countries like South Korea.

 

The May CPI report carries clear upside risk, with consensus looking for headline inflation to push back above 4% for the first time in roughly three years. The main driver is energy, as gasoline prices surged in May tied to Middle East supply risk, while food and transportation costs are also expected to remain firm. April CPI was already running at 3.8% year over year, and Reuters reported economists expect May to rise to 4.2%, with core CPI closer to 2.9%. That mix matters for markets because a hot headline number would keep pressure on consumers, support a higher-for-longer Fed stance, and likely keep bond yields firm, even if the Fed looks through some of the energy-driven move.  

 

China’s May inflation data was mixed but still points to a soft domestic demand backdrop with rising upstream cost pressure. CPI held at 1.2% year over year, slightly below expectations, suggesting consumer inflation remains contained and households are not driving a strong demand impulse. PPI, however, rose to 3.9% year over year versus 2.8% previously, showing producer-level inflation is accelerating faster than expected. The broader takeaway is that China is seeing more cost pressure through the industrial side while end-user demand remains muted, which could squeeze margins and complicate policy if Beijing is trying to support growth without reigniting inflation.

 

USDA’s latest comments on New World screwworm were somewhat reassuring, with Agriculture Secretary Rollins saying the first infected U.S. calf is healthy and recovering and that eradication efforts should begin in the next couple of months. The market takeaway is that USDA is still treating this as a manageable animal-health issue rather than a widespread outbreak, but the risk premium will not fully disappear until surveillance confirms the parasite has not spread. For cattle, it remains a headline risk tied to border flows, herd health, and confidence in containment, rather than an immediate supply shock.

 

image-20260610055737-1

 

Overnight option activity

Corn

B 100 z 900 c 5/8

S 400 z 480 c 14

S 400 z 490 c 11 ¾ to 11 1/2

S 500 z 510 c 8 ½ to 8 1/4

B 1250 w2 410 p 3/4

B 100 h 500/470 ps 20 1/8 

S 500 n 420 p 6 3/8 

 

Beans

B 150 x 1160/1210 cs vs s 1050 p 3/8 to 7/8 db

B 400 n 1170 c 1 3/4

 

Soymeal

B 200 n 310/320 cs 1.60

 

Bean oil

B 300 q 9750 c .055

 

Wheat

S 100 q 650 c 10 3/8 

 

Kc wheat

B 250 n 685 c 2 7/8 to 3 3/8 

S 250 n 685/680 cs 3/4

 

Open interest changes

Corn

Dec 425 straddle sale, dec 490/530 call spread buy, dec 490/535 call spread buy and dec 500 call buys were new....sept 480/500 call spread buy was rolling a long.

 

Beans

Nov 1240 call buy vs sale of july27 1280 calls was new.

 

Soymeal

Aug 305 call buy and aug 300 put buys were new.

 

Wheat

Aug 650 call buy vs sale of july 580 puts was new

 

Live cattle

Oct and dec 240 put sales were closing 

 

Cvol

Ags 21.35% down .44%

Corn 26.99% down .51%

Beans 16.93% down .09%

Soymeal 20.07% down 1.61%

Bean oil 26.58% down 1.29%

Wheat 28.30% down .03%

Feeder cattle 17.26% down .11%

Live cattle 16.81% down .52%

Lean hogs 25.00% up .03% (6 month high)

Class 3 milk 18.63% down .88% (3 month low)

 

Corn

image-20260610055737-2

Beans

image-20260610055737-3

Soymeal

image-20260610055737-4

Bean oil

image-20260610055737-5

Wheat

image-20260610055737-6

Kc wheat

image-20260610055737-7

Miax wheat 

image-20260610055737-8

Oats

image-20260610055737-9

Rough rice

image-20260610055737-10

Cotton

image-20260610055737-11

Canola

image-20260610055737-12

Feeder cattle

image-20260610055737-13

Live cattle 

image-20260610055737-14

Lean hogs

image-20260610055737-15

 

 

 

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