Grain markets will be closed Thursday night and Friday for Juneteenth. Will open Sunday night. COT will be Monday.
Citadel Securities’ call raises the risk that the Fed’s next move may be a hike rather than a cut if inflation keeps proving sticky and broad-based. That would be a hawkish shift for markets, supporting the dollar, pressuring bonds, and creating a tougher backdrop for commodities and risk assets. For agriculture, the direct impact is less about demand today and more about tighter financial conditions, higher carry costs, and a stronger dollar hurting U.S. export competitiveness. The key market message is that “higher for longer” may be turning into “higher again” if inflation does not cool.
Warsh potentially withholding his “dot” would be a major communications signal, not a direct policy move. The Fed is still expected to hold rates steady this week, but the dot plot could become more hawkish as some officials pencil in hikes instead of cuts. If Warsh does not submit a dot, it would let him avoid publicly showing whether he leans dovish like the White House wants or more hawkish like inflation data may require. Markets would likely read that as less forward guidance and more uncertainty, meaning bigger reactions to CPI, jobs, oil, and Fed comments going forward. For commodities, the risk is a firmer dollar and tighter financial conditions if the market decides the Fed is moving away from cuts and toward possible hikes.
U.S. screwworm cases are rising, with the outbreak reportedly spreading beyond the initial contamination zones and 12 animal cases confirmed so far. The increase is raising concern across the livestock sector because screwworm can cause serious animal-health problems and could trigger tighter movement controls, added surveillance, and higher biosecurity costs if it spreads further. For the cattle market, the story is supportive because it adds another risk premium to an already tight beef supply situation, even though the immediate impact is more about containment risk than current beef production losses.
Exchange stocks sold off after the CFTC chair defended the approval of regulated crypto perpetual futures, a product that never expires and could create a new 24/7 leveraged trading venue on U.S. exchanges. Cboe was hit hardest because investors worry perpetual-style contracts could eventually compete with the index options activity that drives a major part of its revenue. The broader takeaway is that regulators are becoming more open to crypto-linked market structure, which could shift speculative volume away from traditional futures and options products over time.
Corn
S 250 h 475p/510c strangles 52 to 51 7/8 vs 458
B 1800 z 480/500 cs vs s 1200 z 550 c paying 1 7/8
B 500 u 400 p 7 7/8 vs 423 1/2
B 1000 u 465 c 6 1/8 to 6 5/8
B 1000 q 470 c 3 1/2
B 1500 sd n 440 p 5 to 5 3/8
B 1500 sd n 455 c 2 1/4
B 1000 z 400 p 7 1/8 to 7 3/8
S 500 z 460/510 cs 10 7/8
B 200 sd f 590 c 1 7/8
B 2000 z 430 p 18 ¾ to 19 1/4
S 500 z 490 c 11 1/2
B 800 v 450 c 18 ¾ to 19 1/8
B 1000 sd n 445 p 8 1/8
B 1000 n 425 c 2 ½ to 3 1/4
S 900 x 400 p 5 5/8
B 500 z 450 c vs s z 415 p 11 ½ to 13 ½ db
B 1000 z 450 c 24 ¼ to 25
B 900 u 385 p 3 7/8 vs 426
B 1000 q 500 c 1 3/4
B 250 sd q 460/480 cs 4 1/2
S 600 n 415 straddles 12
S 500 q 430 c 12 5/8
B 2400 nu -12 cso p 5/8
B 1000 q 450 c 8
B 500 n27 580 c 12 to 12 1/8
B 1000 n 420 p 9 1/2
B 1000 n 415 p 6 3/8
B 1300 n 455 p 38 7/8 vs 416 1/2
S 2400 u 460 p vs b sd u 475 p 3 ½ cr
B 1600 n 400 p 1
B 1000 n 410 p 2 3/4
S 150 n 410 straddles 12 7/8
B 300 new crop w3 440 c 6 3/4
B 500 n 420 c 5
B 1000 zn -25/-15 cs vs s -30 p 2 ¼ cr
On a block
B 500 u 460/500 cs 5 1/8
Beans
B 1000 h 1250 c 30 ½ to 31
S 500 sd q 1170 c 19 5/8
B 300 v 1200/1300 cs 16 1/4
S 200 n 1140 p 19 7/8
B 100 u 950 p 7/8
B 1250 n 1160/1400 cs 3 vs 1128
S 1000 x 1220/1200 ps 14 7/8
B 800 x 1200/1220 cs 4 7/8
S 1500 x 1180/1220 cs 15 ½ to 15
B 500 u 1160/1180 cs 5 ½ to 5 7/8
S 1000 x 1180/1240 cs 14 ¾ vs 1147
S 1000 u 1060 p 8 ½ to 8
S 600 n 1130 c 10
B 500 x 1220 c 26 1/4
B 1100 u 1160 c 25 7/8 to 26 5/8 vs 1133
B 500 n 1150 c 4
B 500 sd q 1200 c 13 1/2
B 1000 n 1150 c 7 7/8 to 8 1/8
B 500 x 1400/1600 cs 4 1/2
S 600 n 1130 c 10
B 500 x 1200 c 33 1/4
B 125 q 1220/1180 ps 11 5/8
B 1250 n 1150 c 6 to 6 1/4
B 1300 h 1250/1350 cs vs s x 1000 p 11 to 11 5/8
S 600 n 1140 c 8 3/8 vs 1130 1/4
B 500 n 1110 p 5
B 500 n 1120 p 17
B 500 x 1070 p 19
B 500 x 1110 p 35 3/4
B 50 0x 1100 p 30 7/8
S 3000 x 1160/1220 cs 18 ½ to 17
B 300 q 1150 c 16 1/8
S 200 n27 1220 c 50 5/8
B 1000 x 1200/1300 cs 19 3/4
B 1000 u 1170/1250 cs 16 3/8 to 16 1/2
On a block
B 700 u 1200 c 15 ¼ vs 1134 1/4
Soymeal
B 500 z 350 c 4.60 to 5.10
B 300 q 350 c .90 vs 304.5
B 400 q 305 c 2.80 to 2.90
B 200 n 315 c 1.55 to 1.60
S 750 h 295/285 ps 3.45 vs 311.5
S 1000 q 310/300 ps 5.60
B 125 q 310/330 cs vs s 290 p 1.25 db
B 150 n 340 c .20
On a block
B 300 n 295 p 1.10 vs 303.7
Bean oil
B 1000 q 81 c .240
B 500 v 7950 c .820
B 100 u 75 c 1.280
S 500 v 64 p 1.600 vs 6873
S 400 n 74 c .665
S 100 q 71p/7150c strangles 4.385
B 100 z 90/100 cs .240
S 600 n 7450 c .610
B 1000 q 82 c .215 to .280
B 400 n 76 c vs s 600 n 78 c .300 db
S 200 z 6550 p 3.030
B 1000 n 72 p .700 to .740
S 300 n 76 c .330 to .320
B 200 n 73 c 1.400
S 1000 n 72/70 ps .6215 to .210
S 600 n 7150/70 ps .260 vs 7328
On a block
B 500 q 72/77 cs 1.330
Wheat
B 500 n 620 c 3 5/8
B 500 n 620/630 cs 1 3/8
B 150 q 650 c 9 to 10
B 500 n 620 c 4 1/8
S 1000 n 580 p 3 ½ to 2 3/4
B 600 q 640 c 12
S 500 u 630/580/530 put flies 15 3/8
B 400 u 560 p 7 7/8 vs 610
B 300 n 630 c 1 7/8 to 3
B 2000 u 650/700 cs 8 3/4
Kc wheat
B 200 q 650 c 19 7/8 vs 644
B 100 n 585 p 5 3/8
B 500 n 650/680 cs 3 3/8
S 200 q 660 c 16 ¼ vs 644
B 200 z 600 p 14 3/4
B 400 n 650/680 cs 5 3/8 vs 640
Rough rice
S 100 q 1180 p 15
Nonfat milk
B 500 u 140/130 ps 2.00 to 2.40
Hogs
Bought 800 Aug 110 calls paid .25
Bought 500 Oct 76 puts paid 2.625 up to 2.65
Bought 150 July 95/97/99 call fly paid .375
Bought 800 Oct 74/90 strangles paid 3.40 On a Block
Sold 400 Dec 90 calls @ .70
Bought 700 Dec 74 puts paid 5.10 up to 5.125
Bought 200 Aug 1008/105 call spread paid 1.025 On a Block
Bought 350 April 72/92 strangle paid 4.00
Bought 250 July 110/102 puts spread paid 7.80
Bought 300 July 108/102 put spread paid 5.825
Bought 200 Aug 100 calls paid 1.625 up to 1.65
Sold 400 Oct 100 calls @ .40
Sold 400 Oct 98 calls @ .50
Live Cattle
Sold 1500 Aug 250/244 put spread @ 2.65 down to 2.55
Bought 800 Feb 246 calls paid 7.675 up to 7.95
Sold 225 July 242/247 call spread @ 3.775 down to 3.75
Sold 200 Aug 250 puts @ 6.15 down to 6.125 covered 248.25
Sold 100 dec 240 straddles 18.550
Bought 500 oct 300 calls .075
Bought 600 oct 304 calls .075
Bought 400 July 244 calls paid 3.05 up to 4.40
Sold 200 July 239/244 call spread @ 3.25
Bought 150 Oct 220 puts paid 2.175
Bought 250 July 245/238 put spread paid 2.10 up to 2.225
Feeder Cattle
Sold 800 Nov 390 puts @ 8.00 down to 7.45
Sold 800 oct 334/300/290 broken put flies 3.500 to 3.175
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