U.S. ethanol data was modestly supportive for corn demand, but not outright bullish because inventories also built. Weekly ethanol production jumped to 1.117 million barrels per day, up 27,000 barrels per day from last week and above the top end of analyst expectations, which implies strong corn grind and solid plant run rates. The offset is that ethanol stocks also rose to 24.69 million barrels, above expectations, while blender inputs slipped slightly, suggesting supply is building faster than end-user demand. For corn, the takeaway is positive on usage but capped by inventory growth: ethanol plants are pulling corn, especially in the Midwest, but the market will want to see stronger blending demand or exports to keep ethanol stocks from becoming a drag.
USDA’s $500 million fertilizer investment is a longer-term attempt to reduce U.S. reliance on imported fertilizer and bring more production capacity back home. For farmers, it is a positive headline because fertilizer costs have stayed elevated from tariffs, geopolitical risk, and global supply disruptions, all while crop prices have been under pressure. It will not likely lower input costs immediately, because new or expanded plants take time to permit, finance, and build. But strategically, this is supportive for U.S. agriculture: more domestic fertilizer production could improve supply security, reduce exposure to foreign disruptions, and eventually help margins, especially for fertilizer-heavy crops like corn.
Gasoline prices remain elevated even though WTI crude has moved back near the same 69/barrel area seen in February. Back then, the national average for regular gasoline was roughly 2.90–3.00/gal, while today it is closer to 3.85/gal. The gap is being driven by more than crude alone: wholesale gasoline values and refinery margins remain firm, inventories are still tight, summer-grade gasoline is more expensive to produce, and retail prices tend to rise faster than they fall. In other words, crude has come back down, but the finished gasoline market has not fully normalized, leaving pump prices roughly 85–90 cents above where they were the last time WTI traded near this level.
U.S. manufacturing remained in expansion for a sixth straight month in June, with the ISM index at 53.3, still near a four-year high despite a modest pullback from May. The more important market signal was the sharp drop in the prices-paid gauge, which fell to 73 as the earlier war-driven surge in input costs eased and oil prices declined. For markets, this is a mixed but generally constructive report: demand is still growing, new orders remain solid, and cost pressures are cooling, which supports the idea of a resilient economy with less immediate inflation pressure. For commodities, steady manufacturing demand is supportive, but lower input-cost inflation and weaker energy prices can limit upside momentum.
Fed Chair Kevin Warsh struck a somewhat calmer tone on inflation, saying price risks and inflation expectations have come down in recent weeks, but he also made clear the Fed remains focused on bringing inflation back to its 2% target. The market takeaway is that policy may become less predictable, as Warsh emphasized Fed independence and said the central bank will avoid giving clear “forward guidance” on future rate moves. For commodities, that means markets could become more sensitive to each inflation, jobs, and growth report, with bigger swings in the dollar, Treasury yields, and risk appetite as traders adjust expectations meeting by meeting.
Corn
B 1000 sd q 460 c 4 5/8
B 200 n7u7 +5/+25 cso cs 6
S 600 z 320 p 1/4
S 750 u 450 c 6 ½ vs 421
B 2750 u 380 p 1 7/8 vs 421 1/4
B 1000 z 420 p 12
S 200 u 475 c 3 1/8 vs 421
S 1000 q 370 p 1/4
B 2300 h 475/550 cs 13 3/8 to 13 1/2
B 1600 v 475/500 cs 3 7/8
B 200 z 450/500 cs 12
S 1000 u 455 straddles 45 ½ vs 420
S 1000 u 430 c 11 5/8 to 11 1/2
B 500 sd 450 c 7
S 150 h 460/410 ps 21 5/8
S 2000 sd u 460 c 5 to 4 1/2
B 1500 q 405 p 3 7/8 to 4 5/8
S 1000 u 420 c 15 ¼ to 15
S 1000 n 555 c 12 ¾ to 12 1/8
B 1000 u 560 c 5/8
B 250 n 420 p 11 1/8
B 1000 n 425 p 12 5/8 to 13
B 500 sd u 480/500 cs 2
B 2000 u 400 p 6 vs 421 1/4
S 1500 u 400 p 6 ¼ vs 419 3/4
S 1000 z 425/350 ps and 1000 z 450/550 cs 29 1/8 cr
S 750 u 450 c 6 ½ vs 421
On a block
B 1000 u 395 p vs s u 445 c 3 db vs 421
B 2000 v 450/500 cs 10 3/8 vs 440
S 2500 z 425/450 ps and 2500 z 450/550 cs 29 1/8 cr
Beans
B 2000 x 1300 c 8 5/8 to 8 7/8
B 1500 u 1100 p 11 7/8 vs 1139 3/4
S 1500 q 1100 p 5 ¾ to 5 3/8
B 500 u 1200 c 9 5/8
B 2000 q 1150/1190 cs 6 ¼ to 8 5/8
S 1000 x 1210 c 20 1/4
S 1000 q 1170 c 5 1/8
B 1000 q 1140 c 14 1/8 vs 1132
S 1000 sd q 1100 p 2 vs 1149 1/2
B 800 q 1140/1160 cs 6 1/8
B 150 u 1120 p 20 1/4
S 500 u 1180 p vs b sd u 1190 p 3 ¼ cr
B 300 sd u 1150/1200 cs 16 3/8
Soymeal
S 500 u 300 p vs 303.8 against b 500 q 300 p vs 305.3 collecting 3.40
B 500 u 320 c vs s q 315 c 6.05 db vs q 305.2
B 200 z 310/320 cs 3.10
S 500 q 300 p 3.00 to 2.70
B 250 q 300 p 2.90
Bean oil
B 500 q 75 c .120
B 150 z 75 c 1.140
B 150 u 75 c vs s 300 u 80 c .050 db
B 1000 u 70 c .990 to 1.120
S 750 u 75 c .385 to .380 vs 6596
S 500 q 66 c 1.610 vs 6606
S 500 u 72 c .600 vs 6550
S 2500 q 65 p 1.175 to .795
B 500 u 75 c .380 to .385
B 250 q 62 p .370
B 500 z 55 p .590 to .620
B 1000 q 7250 c .185
On a block
B 200 h 68 c 3.370 vs 6482
S 1000 h 6350/50 ps and 68/90 cs 6.400 cr
B 100 n 68 c 4.060 vs 6425
S 1750 u 65p/67c strangles 3.945
Wheat
B 1500 q 650 c 4 ¾ vs 604
S 500 q 590 p 10 5/8
B 1400 q 650 c 4 3/8 to 5
B 400 u 560p 5 3/4
S 400 z 660 c 21 7/8 to 21 ½ vs 614 1/4
S 750 q 590 p 10 5/8
B 500 w2 580 p 3 1/8
Kc wheat
B 1000 u 650/700 cs 10 5/8 to 11 3/4
Hogs
Sold 300 Aug 96 puts @ 1.375 down to 1.275
Sold 100 Dec 64/84 strangle @ 2.35 down to 2.325
Bought 150 Dec 78/86 call spread v 66 puts paid .30 up to .325
Sold 1000 Aug 88 puts @ .1750 down to .15
Sold 300 Aug 96 puts @ 1.05 covered 98.850 On a Block
Sold 150 Oct 92 calls @ 1.0750 down to .9750
Bought 150 Oct 96 calls paid .50
Bought 100 Oct 76 puts paid 1.525
Sold 1500 Feb 76/82 strangle @ 6.85 down to 6.70
Sold 2000 Aug 90/96/99/105 Iron Condors @ 2.425 down to 2.35
Sold 250 April 74/92 strangle @ 3.825 down to 3.80
Sold 400 Feb 94 calls @ .65 down to .525
Bought 400 Dec 90 calls paid .4750 up to .55
Live Cattle
Bought 100 Aug 244/252 call spread paid 2.65 up to 2.70
Bought 200 Aug 250 calls paid 1.325 up to 1.75
Sold 150 Aug 235/225 put spreads v. July 240 puts @ 1.00 down to .95
Sold 100 July 239/243 call spread @ 2.125
Bought 325 July 242/241/240 put fly paid .15 covered 241.825
Feeder Cattle
Bought 150 Nov 300 puts paid 1.70 up to 1.75
Bought 150 Oct 300 puts paid 1.15
Class IV Milk
Bought 125 Aug 18.50/16.00 combo paid .30 Buying the call
This material should be construed as the solicitation of an account, order, and/or services and represents the opinions and viewpoints of the individual authors or presenters. It does not constitute an individualized recommendation or take into account the particular trading objectives, financial situations, or needs of individual customers.
The views are current only through the date stated and are subject to change at any time based upon market or other conditions, and StoneX Group Inc. (“SGI”) disclaims any responsibility to update such views. Actual results, performance, or achievements may differ materially from those expressed or implied. Information is based on data gathered from what we believe are reliable sources. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
The StoneX Group Inc. group of companies provides financial services worldwide through its subsidiaries, including physical commodities, securities, exchange-traded and over-the-counter derivatives, risk management, global payments and foreign exchange products in accordance with applicable law in the jurisdictions where services are provided.
References to certain OTC products or swaps are made on behalf of StoneX Markets, LLC (SXM), a member of the National Futures Association (NFA) and provisionally registered with the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as a swap dealer. SXM’s products are designed only for individuals or firms who qualify under CFTC rules as an ‘Eligible Contract Participant’ and who have been accepted as customers of SXM.
StoneX Financial Inc. (SFI) is a member of FINRA/NFA/SIPC and registered with the MSRB. SFI is registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) as a Broker-Dealer and with the CFTC as a Futures Commission Merchant and Commodity Trading Advisor. StoneX Financial (Canada) Inc. (SFCI) is registered in Canada and is a member of CIRO and CIPF. References to certain securities trading are made on behalf of the BD Division of SFI and are intended only for an audience of institutional clients as defined by FINRA Rule 4512(c). References to certain exchange-traded futures and options are made on behalf of the FCM Division of SFI. Wealth Management is offered through SA Stone Wealth Management Inc., member FINRA/SIPC, and SA Stone Investment Advisors Inc., an SEC-registered investment advisor, both wholly owned subsidiaries of SGI.
R.J. O’Brien & Associates, LLC (RJO) is registered with the CFTC as a Futures Commission Merchant and is a member of NFA.
StoneX Financial Ltd (SFL) is registered in England and Wales, company no. 5616586. SFL is authorized and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) (registration number FRN:446717) to provide services to professional and eligible customers including: arrangement, execution and, where required, clearing derivative transactions in exchange traded futures and options. SFL is also authorized to engage in the arrangement and execution of transactions in certain OTC products, certain securities trading, precious metals trading and payment services to eligible customers. SFL is authorized and regulated by the FCA under the Payment Services Regulations 2017 for the provision of payment services. SFL is a category 1 ring-dealing member of the London Metal Exchange. In addition SFL also engages in other physically delivered commodities business and other general business activities which are unregulated and not required to be authorized by the FCA.
This communication is issued in the European Economic Area by StoneX Financial Europe GmbH (SFEG). StoneX is the trade name used by STONEX GROUP INC. and all its associated entities and subsidiaries. StoneX Financial Europe GmbH (“SFEG”) is a securities trading firm registered in Germany under Company No. HRB 80844.
StoneX Financial Pte Ltd (Co. Reg. No 201130598R) (“SFP”) is regulated by the Monetary Authority of Singapore and is a Capital Markets Service Licence holder (for dealing in capital market products), an Exempt Financial Adviser (for advising on investment products and issuing or promulgating analyses/ reports on investment products) and a Major Payment Institution (for domestic and cross-border money transfer services).
SFP may distribute analysis/report produced by its respective foreign affiliates within the StoneX Group of companies pursuant to an arrangement under Regulation 32C of the Financial Advisers Regulations Recipients should contact SFP at (65) 6309 1000 for any matters arising from, or in connection with, this webinar.
StoneX APAC Pte. Ltd. (“SAP”) (Co. Reg. No 200616676W) is regulated as a Dealer (PS20190001002) under the Precious Stones and Precious Metals (Prevention of Money Laundering and Terrorism Financing) Act 2019 for purposes of anti-money laundering and countering the financing of terrorism.
StoneX Financial (HK) Limited (CE No.: BCQ152) (“SHK”) is regulated by the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission for Dealing in Securities and Dealing in Futures Contracts.
StoneX Financial Pty Ltd (ACN 141 774 727) holds an Australian Financial Service License (AFSL: 345646) for Dealing in Securities, Exchange-Traded Derivatives Contracts, OTC Derivatives Contracts and Foreign Exchange Contracts, and is regulated by the Australian Securities and Investments Commission.
StoneX Securities Co., Ltd. (“SSJ”) (Co. Reg. No 010401047199) is regulated by the Japanese Financial Services Agency as a Type-I Financial Instruments Business Operator (Kanto Local Finance Bureau (FIBO)No.291’), is a member of the Financial Futures Association of Japan for dealing and broking FX and FX Option transactions, and is a member of the Japan Securities Dealers Association for dealing and broking stock indices and option transactions.
Trading swaps and over-the-counter derivatives, exchange-traded derivatives and options and securities involves substantial risk and is not suitable for all investors. Past performance of any futures or option is not indicative of future success. Indicators are not a trading system and are not published as a specific trade recommendation. The information herein is not a recommendation to trade nor investment research or an offer to buy or sell any derivative or security. It does not take into account your particular investment objectives, financial situation or needs and does not create a binding obligation on any of the StoneX group of companies to enter into any transaction with you. You are advised to perform an independent investigation of any transaction to determine whether any transaction is suitable for you. No part of this material may be copied, photocopied or duplicated in any form by any means or redistributed without the prior written consent of StoneX Group Inc.
The report/analysis herein is not directed to, or intended for distribution to or use by, any person or entity who is a citizen or resident of or located in any locality, state, country or other jurisdiction where such distribution, publication, availability or use would be contrary to law or regulation.
© 2026 StoneX Group Inc. All Rights Reserved.
