The U.S. military said it has started a new wave of strikes against Iran after reported Iranian attacks on three commercial vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz. CENTCOM described the action as a response to Iran targeting commercial shipping crews in an international waterway and said the strikes are meant to impose costs for those attacks. The headline marks a clear escalation and tests the fragile U.S.-Iran ceasefire, with immediate market attention likely shifting back to Hormuz shipping risk, crude oil, LNG, freight, and broader geopolitical risk premiums.
The U.S. Treasury revoked Iran General License X effective July 7, ending a waiver that had allowed the production, delivery, and sale of Iranian-origin crude oil and petrochemical products. The move adds sanctions pressure back onto Iranian energy flows at the same time tensions are rising around the Strait of Hormuz, where recent attacks on commercial vessels have already increased shipping and supply risk. For markets, the headline is supportive to crude oil risk premium and keeps energy, freight, LNG, and broader commodity markets sensitive to any further escalation.
An EU livestock protein-feed strategy aimed at reducing Europe’s dependence on imported soybeans, soybean meal, and other oilseed/protein crops from major suppliers like Brazil and the U.S. The European Commission wants 35% of oilseeds and protein crops used in animal feed to be EU-grown by 2035, up from 25% last year. The goal is to make Europe less vulnerable to supply disruptions, diversify away from the Americas, and support domestic agriculture while using food-safety and sustainability standards as leverage in trade talks. For markets, this is not an immediate demand shock, but it is a longer-term headwind for soybean and meal exporters into the EU and could be supportive for European-grown rapeseed, peas, beans, sunflower, and other protein crops.
Purdue’s June Ag Economy Barometer fell to 113, down from 119 in May, with both Current Conditions slipping to 102 from 107 and Future Expectations falling to 118 from 125. The Farm Capital Investment Index edged down to 40 from 41, showing producers remain cautious on equipment and expansion spending. The bigger takeaway is that farmer sentiment is not matching the recent strength in corn and soybean prices; confidence is still pressured by tight margins, input-cost concerns, and uncertainty around farm profitability. Compared with June 2025, the headline index is down sharply from 146, and capital investment is down from 60, so the tone remains defensive even with weather premium and China buying helping futures.
The U.S. trade deficit widened sharply in May to 77.6 billion from 54.6 billion in April, though it came in slightly better than the 78.4 billion estimate. The weakness came from both sides of the ledger: imports rose 3.3% to 395.3 billion, while exports fell 3.2% to 317.7 billion. For markets, the report is mildly negative for Q2 GDP because a wider trade gap subtracts from growth, but the rise in imports also suggests U.S. demand remains firm. For agriculture and commodities, the softer export number is the bigger concern, as it reinforces the need for stronger foreign buying to support U.S. balance sheets.
Corn
S 1000 uz -20 cso p 1 1/2
B 500 u 460 c 8 3/4
B 2300 sd u 470 c 11 ¾ vs 457 3/4
S 1500 z 415 p vs b 1000 z 410 p 9 5/8 cr
B 1000 u 375 p 3/4
B 1000 w2 new crop 455 p vs s 2000 w2 new crop 445 p 1 ¾ db
B 3000 z 500/550 cs 6 ¾ to 7 3/4
B 1500 w2 435 p vs s 3000 w2 420 p and 1500 w2 455 c 1 ¼ to 1 ¾ db
B 500 u 450 p 22 7/8
S 1000 z27 510 c 29 ½ vs 483 ½
S 500 q 420/440 cs 11 1/2
S 200 u 470/420 ps 31 3/8 vs 436
B 500 q 410 p 1 1/2
B 750 q 460/510 cs 2 1/2
B 250 q 480/530 cs 3/4
B 1000 z 500/550 cs 7
B 1000 u 385 p 1 3/4
B 1300 u 390/370 ps 1 1/2
B 1000 w2 435/420 ps vs s 455 c 1 ¼ db
B 300 u 385/370/360 put trees 5/8
B 2000 z 500/550 cs vs s u 500/550 cs 4 7/8 db
S 500 q 440 c 10 1/2
B 250 v 460 c 21 3/8 vs 460 1/4
B 2000 u 480 c vs s 1000 u 420 p 2 to 3 ¾ db
B 200 h 550 c 10 vs 472
S 1000 sd q 450 c 16 to 15 1/2
On a block
B 1600 z27 450/550 cs 36 1/8
B 2000 u 460 c 8 ¾ vs 438
Beans
B 200 x 1190 straddles 91 ¾ to 93
B 500 v 1120 p 10 ¾ to 11 1/4
B 1500 k 1380 c 20 1/8 to 22 3/8
S 1000 x 1140 p 21 1/4
B 400 w3 1200 c 9 7/8
B 700 u 1130 p 10 ½ vs 1118 1/4
S 500 q 1250 c 3 7/8
S 500 q 1160/1220 cs 27 3/8
B 500 q 1250 c 3 7/8
B 200 sd q 1200 c 14
S 250 q 1140 c 50 ½ vs 1186 3/4
S 500 q 1170 p 13 to 12 1/4
B 100 x 1180 straddles 92 3/4
Soymeal
S 100 w3 305 p 1.30
S 200 q 315 c 5.20 vs 314.5
S 250 u 310/360 cs 8.95 to 8.70
B 2000 z 350 c 5.40 to 6.15
B 300 q 320 c 3.50 to 4.00
S 100 u 310 p 7.75
B 200 u 290 p 1.35
S 500 u 310/350 cs 8.50 to 7.95
On a block
S 300 z 350 c vs b z 295 p .95 cr vs 313.0
Bean oil
B 2000 v 74 c .960 vs 6725
B 1000 u 65 p 1.030
B 150 z 75 c 1.550
S 3000 q 70 c .740 to .730 vs 6830
B 300 q 72/77 cs .265
B 150 u 62 p .375
B 250 z 60 p 1.215
B 200 f 75/85 cs 1.135
B 1000 g 6250/62 ps .030
B 500 q 70/64 ps 2.560
B 400 u 70 c 1.330 vs 6748
Wheat
B 300 z 700 c 29 1/4
B 1000 q 590 p 4 3/4
B 200 q 650 c 6 1/4
S 450 u 630/650 cs 5 1/2
S 100 z 600 p 23 7/8 vs 628 1/2
B 1000 q 570 p 1 1/2
B 200 u 555/520 ps 2 5/8
B 750 q 560 p 1 1/8 to 1 1/4
B 150 u 570 p vs s q 570 p 4 7/8 db
S 250 u 600 p 17 3/8
Kc wheat
B 1000 u 700 c 10 1/8 to 10 1/4
Hogs
Sold 100 Aug 95 puts @ 1.00
Sold 500 Aug 96 calls @ 2.15 down to 2.05
Bought 500 Aug 98/100 call spread paid .550 up to .575
Sold 200 Oct 84/92 call spread v. 77 puts @ .375 down to .35
Live Cattle
Sold 600 Dec 234/236 strangles @ 15.85
Bought 250 Aug 230 puts paid 1.20 up to 1.20 covered 237.95
Bought 350 Aug/Feb 240/230 put spread Diag. Paid 3.475 up to 3.50
Sold 400 Aug 240 calls @ 2.80 down to 2.50
Bought 400 Oct 238 puts paid 8.95 up to 9.25
Bought 250 Oct 230/215 put spread paid 3.40 covered 234.475
Sold 150 Oct 240 calls @ 3.825
Bought 400 Aug 236 puts paid 2.75 covered 238.50
Bought 300 Dec 234 puts paid 8.375 up to 8.675
Sold 100 Oct 220 puts @ 2.15 down to 2.10
Bought 200 Aug 235 puts paid 2.05 up to 2.10
Bought 200 Aug 234 puts paid 1.85
Feeder Cattle
Sold 100 Aug 362/376 call spreads @ 4.95 down to 4.90
Sold 100 Aug 360 calls @ 8.125 down to 8.00
Corn
Month
Futures
Change
Strike
Implied Vol
Change in IV
Futures Range
Implied BE
Realized BE
20D Historic Vol
Days to Exp
C Q6
443.75
5.50
445
28.1
-1.00
8.75
7.85
6.64
23.76
17
C U6
443.75
5.50
445
27.5
-0.50
8.75
7.69
6.64
23.76
45
C V6
464.25
6.50
465
24.9
-0.20
9.75
7.28
6.68
22.85
80
C X6
464.25
6.50
460
24.2
0.00
9.75
7.08
6.68
22.85
108
C Z6
464.25
6.50
465
23.3
-0.10
9.75
6.81
6.68
22.85
136
C H7
479.00
6.50
480
20.5
0.00
9.75
6.19
6.65
22.05
227
Beans
Month
Futures
Change
Strike
Implied Vol
Change in IV
Futures Range
Implied BE
Realized BE
20D Historic Vol
Days to Exp
S Q6
1193.75
9.75
1190
19.9
-0.20
16.50
14.96
14.44
19.20
17
S U6
1187.00
6.00
1190
19.6
0.00
13.00
14.66
13.66
18.27
45
S V6
1197.75
5.50
1200
18.3
-0.30
12.00
13.81
13.45
17.83
80
S X6
1197.75
5.50
1200
18.1
-0.30
12.00
13.66
13.45
17.83
108
S F7
1210.75
5.25
1210
16.8
-0.80
11.25
12.81
13.11
17.19
170
SRW Wheat
Month
Futures
Change
Strike
Implied Vol
Change in IV
Futures Range
Implied BE
Realized BE
20D Historic Vol
Days to Exp
W Q6
618.50
4.50
620
30.5
-0.40
9.75
11.88
8.57
22.00
17
W U6
618.50
4.50
620
29.2
0.20
9.75
11.38
8.57
22.00
45
W V6
633.75
5.25
635
26.8
0.30
10.00
10.70
8.16
20.45
80
W X6
633.75
5.25
635
26.7
0.30
10.00
10.66
8.16
20.45
109
W Z6
633.75
5.25
635
26.3
0.30
10.00
10.50
8.16
20.45
136
HRW Wheat
Month
Futures
Change
Strike
Implied Vol
Change in IV
Futures Range
Implied BE
Realized BE
20D Historic Vol
Days to Exp
KWQ6
652.75
3.00
655
30.8
-0.30
10.75
12.66
8.88
21.60
17
KWU6
652.75
3.00
655
29.3
0.20
10.75
12.05
8.88
21.60
45
KWV6
667.25
3.00
670
27.1
0.00
10.75
11.39
8.74
20.78
80
KWZ6
667.25
3.00
665
25.9
0.10
10.75
10.89
8.74
20.78
136
KWH7
679.25
2.75
680
24.6
0.10
10.00
10.53
8.65
20.21
227
Bean Oil
Month
Futures
Change
Strike
Implied Vol
Change in IV
Futures Range
Implied BE
Realized BE
20D Historic Vol
Days to Exp
BOQ6
68.59
0.83
68.5
22.9
-0.50
1.03
0.99
0.96
22.17
17
BOU6
68.16
0.77
68
23.0
-0.70
1.01
0.99
0.88
20.60
45
BOV6
67.62
0.68
67.5
23.5
-0.30
0.97
1.00
0.86
20.13
80
BOZ6
67.27
0.64
67.5
23.9
0.00
0.98
1.01
0.85
20.15
136
Meal
Month
Futures
Change
Strike
Implied Vol
Change in IV
Futures Range
Implied BE
Realized BE
20D Historic Vol
Days to Exp
SMQ6
316.20
3.30
315
20.9
0.60
6.40
4.16
2.55
12.81
17
SMU6
314.50
3.30
315
20.6
0.30
6.60
4.08
2.66
13.43
45
SMV6
313.10
3.00
315
19.9
0.30
6.50
3.92
2.85
14.44
80
SMZ6
316.50
3.00
315
19.7
0.50
6.90
3.93
2.95
14.82
136
Lean Hogs
Month
Futures
Change
Strike
Implied Vol
Change in IV
Futures Range
Implied BE
Realized BE
20D Historic Vol
Days to Last Trade
LHN6
93.450
0.100
94
6.9
-0.60
0.60
0.41
0.76
12.92
8
LHQ6
96.925
-1.600
96
14.2
0.20
2.08
0.87
0.92
15.07
38
LHU6
81.650
-0.925
82
22.2
-0.10
1.50
1.14
0.71
13.90
70
LHV6
81.650
-0.925
82
21.1
0.00
1.50
1.09
0.71
13.90
99
LHZ6
73.575
-0.750
74
21.5
0.00
1.08
1.00
0.68
14.72
160
Live Cattle
Month
Futures
Change
Strike
Implied Vol
Change in IV
Futures Range
Implied BE
Realized BE
20D Historic Vol
Days to Exp
LCQ6
238.425
-0.675
238
12.7
-0.40
2.78
1.91
2.09
13.89
31
LCU6
234.025
-0.625
234
14.0
-0.40
2.40
2.06
1.97
13.36
59
LCV6
234.025
-0.625
234
14.2
-0.40
2.40
2.09
1.97
13.36
87
LCX6
234.000
-0.475
234
14.0
-0.40
2.15
2.06
1.80
12.22
122
LCZ6
234.000
-0.475
234
14.1
-0.40
2.15
2.08
1.80
12.22
150
Feeder Cattle
Month
Futures
Change
Strike
Implied Vol
Change in IV
Futures Range
Implied BE
Realized BE
20D Historic Vol
Days to Last Trade
FCQ6
360.650
0.150
360
14.1
-0.40
3.48
3.20
3.07
13.50
51
FCU6
357.400
-0.475
358
15.1
-0.40
3.60
3.40
3.10
13.77
79
FCV6
353.775
-1.025
354
16.0
-0.30
3.88
3.57
3.13
14.04
114
FCX6
350.275
-1.450
350
16.2
-0.30
4.00
3.57
3.15
14.30
135
FCF7
344.100
-1.600
344
16.5
-0.10
3.65
3.58
3.10
14.31
205
Grains & Oilseeds
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