Middle East tensions escalated sharply over the weekend as the United States launched multiple waves of strikes against Iranian military targets while Iran retaliated against U.S. bases, regional allies and energy infrastructure across the Gulf. President Trump warned Iran against any attempt to assassinate him, saying the U.S. military would completely destroy the areas responsible. U.S. forces reported striking roughly 140 Iranian targets on Saturday, followed by additional attacks Sunday near Qeshm, Jask, Bandar Abbas and Sirik aimed at reducing Iran’s ability to threaten commercial shipping. Iran announced that the Strait of Hormuz was closed until further notice, although vessels continued to transit along the Omani coastline and through an Iran-designated route, with about 20 commercial ships reportedly passing under U.S. military coordination during the latest 24-hour period. Iran also claimed attacks on U.S. and allied facilities in Qatar, Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman and Jordan, while Kuwait confirmed strikes on border posts and a Kuwait Oil Company drilling platform. CENTCOM denied Iranian claims that U.S. personnel were killed and said all forces were accounted for and safe. Despite the escalation, Iran signaled that it may prefer to manage future Strait access in coordination with regional countries, particularly Oman. Iran also denied reports that the Bushehr nuclear power plant had been attacked, stating that the facility remains safe and operating normally. For markets, the immediate focus remains whether Hormuz traffic continues, whether attacks expand to major Gulf energy facilities and whether the conflict begins to materially disrupt crude oil, refined-product and LNG exports.
The European Union is developing a new “solidarity instrument” designed to help European companies reduce their dependence on China for critical materials and components. The proposed mechanism could provide financial or policy support to businesses shifting supply chains toward alternative suppliers, while also cushioning companies and member states from potential Chinese export restrictions or other retaliation. The initiative reflects growing concern in Brussels over China’s dominance in rare earths and other strategic inputs and signals that Europe is preparing for the possibility of a broader trade confrontation. For markets, the policy could accelerate investment in non-Chinese mining, processing and manufacturing capacity, but it may also raise costs for European industries during the transition.
U.S. Senator Lindsey Graham of South Carolina died Saturday, July 11, at age 71 following what his office described as a brief and sudden illness. Graham had served in the Senate since 2003 and was a prominent Republican voice on national security, foreign policy and defense issues, as well as a close ally of President Trump. His death reduces the Republican Senate majority to 52 seats and creates a vacancy that will be filled under South Carolina law.
China has instructed several major refiners to maintain elevated fuel production as the conflict with Iran threatens regional energy supplies and shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. The move is intended to protect Chinese consumers from potential shortages and price spikes by keeping domestic gasoline and diesel inventories well supplied. It also signals that Beijing is preparing for a prolonged disruption rather than assuming the conflict will be resolved quickly. For energy markets, sustained Chinese refinery output could increase near-term crude demand while helping limit refined-product shortages inside China.
China announced several measures and developments pointing to stronger financial-market integration, heavy energy demand and tighter credit oversight. Beijing increased the annual Southbound Bond Connect quota by 60%, from 500 billion yuan to 800 billion yuan, or roughly USD 118 billion, giving mainland investors greater access to bonds issued in Hong Kong and reinforcing the city’s role as an offshore financial center. China’s nationwide electricity load also reached a record 1.518 billion kilowatts on Friday, driven by hot weather and strong industrial demand. At the same time, regulators are pressuring credit-rating agencies to reduce inflated AAA designations, particularly for borrowers paying unusually high interest rates, in an effort to make corporate bond ratings more accurately reflect risk. Separately, Zhipu founder Tang Jie argued that advanced AI technology should remain broadly accessible rather than being controlled by a small number of companies or individuals, highlighting the growing debate inside China over open access versus tighter controls on frontier models.
Overnight option activity
Corn
S 300 q 460 c 4 3/8
S 675 z 440/400 ps 12 1/8
B 2500 sd u 440/430 ps 2 1/2
S 600 z 660/900 cs 13 3/4
S 300 h 500 c 23 1/8 to 23
S 200 z 465 p 23 1/8
S 300 z 450 c 34 1/8 to 33 1/8
B 500 z 500 c 14 1/2
B 400 w3 450/465 cs 3 1/8 vs 444 1/2
Beans
B 500 x 1140 p 14 ¼ vs 1200
B 175 x 1660 c 1 1/8
S 3000 x 1200 p 44 to 41 1/2
B 250 f 1140/1120 ps 5
B 500 sd u 1160/1140 ps 5
B 700 x 1140/1120 ps 5
Wheat
B 300 u 690 c 16 7/8 to 17
S 200 u 700 c 14 to 12 5/8
S 1000 u 680 c 19 ½ to 17 1/8
B 400 u 660 c 20 ¾ to 21
Open interest changes
Corn
Aug 440 put sale, dec 510 call sale, aug 427 put sale and dec 425 put sales were new. Short aug 450 put buy buy, dec 500 call sale, sept 430 straddle buy, short aug 440 put buy and dec 460 straddle sales were new.
Beans
W3 1220/1230 call spread buy was new. W3 1210/1220 call spread buy was rolling a long. Nov 1130 put buy was closing.
Soymeal
Dec 340 call call sale was closing.
Bean oil
Dec 65 put buy was new.
Wheat
Aug 650 call sale and aug 580 put sales were closing. Aug 600 put buy, sept 670/760 call spread buy, sept 670/720 call spread and sept 700 call buys were new. Sept 620/670 call spread sale was rolling a long.
Kc wheat
Sept 650/680/700/750 call condor sale had the 650/680 call spread sale rolling a long and the sept 700/750 call spread buy rolling a short.
Lean hogs
Aug 96/90 put spread buy was closing.
Live cattle
Aug 250/240 put spread buy was rolling a short. Aug 225 put sale was closing
Cvol
Ags 22.16% up .70%
Corn 28.06% up .86%
Beans 18.10% up .07%
Soymeal 23.27% up .43%
Bean oil 24.80% up .48%
Wheat 36.55% up 4.49%
Feeder cattle 16.74% up .86%
Live cattle 16.33% up .49%
Lean hogs 23.53% up .77%
Class 3 milk 21.79% down 1.05%
Corn
Beans
Soymeal
Bean oil
Wheat
Kc wheat
Miax wheat
Oats
Rough rice
Cotton
Canola
Feeder cattle
Live cattle
Lean hogs
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