ag options recap
USDA report tomorrow
Brazil is set to quickly resume and even accelerate beef shipments to the United States now that the Trump administration has removed the extra 50% surcharge on Brazilian beef. All 50 processors authorized to export to the U.S. have already restarted production and begun receiving new orders, with demand strong enough that exporters are willing to pay the remaining 26.4% tariff. November exports—after only ten tariff-free days—reached 12,600 tonnes, and shipments are expected to climb toward 35,000 tonnes in December. According to the Brazilian Beef Exporters Association, processors had already been preparing for a policy shift and are now poised to supply significant volumes, recovering sales lost earlier in the year and meeting robust U.S. demand.
China’s trade surplus surpassed $1 trillion for the first time after November exports rebounded sharply, rising 5.9% year-over-year to $330.4 billion and reversing the prior month’s decline, according to China’s customs administration. The November performance exceeded economists’ expectations for 3.8% growth and cemented the record surplus even with one month left in 2025. However, exports to the U.S. remain a major weak spot, with shipments to America falling for an eighth straight month—down 28.7% year-over-year to $33.8 billion—despite improving bilateral tensions and easing of tariffs on Chinese goods.
PepsiCo is reportedly preparing to review its supply chains and overall operations following the conclusion of discussions with activist investor Elliott Management. The company is expected to focus on developing new products, revising pricing and packaging strategies, and reassessing capital allocation. Elliott, which disclosed a roughly $4 billion stake in PepsiCo in September, has been pushing for structural changes—arguing that PepsiCo’s portfolio has become overly complex and that its beverage segment has been losing market share.
U.S. grain inspections were solid for the week ending December 4, with corn leading the board at 1.453 MMT—down 11% from last week but still 36% above last year—reflecting continued heavy Gulf and PNW movement. Soybean inspections hit 1.018 MMT, a 9% week-over-week increase but still sharply below last year’s 1.739 MMT as the U.S.–China export program remains thin. Wheat posted 393k MT, essentially flat on the week and up nearly 59% from last year, while sorghum slumped to just 1k MT amid a stronger Brazilian export pipeline and lack of Chinese demand. Year-to-date, corn inspections are running nearly 70% ahead of last year, wheat up 21%, but soybeans remain 45% behind, underscoring the structural weakness in U.S. bean exports even as seasonal volumes improve. Overall, the data confirm corn continues to outperform, wheat is stable, and soybeans remain burdened by China’s slow pace and competitive pressure from Brazil.
The Trump administration is set to unveil a $12 billion farm aid package today, including up to $11 billion in one-time payments to crop producers through a new Farmer Bridge Assistance program, with the remainder directed to specialty crops not covered under FBA. The announcement comes amid intensifying farmer frustration over sluggish Chinese soybean buying and lingering trade-war fallout. Despite a late-October Trump–Xi thaw and China’s recent 2.25 MMT in purchases—still far short of the administration’s touted 12 MMT by February—exports remain well below what farmers need. Treasury Secretary Bessent maintains China is “on track,” while USTR Greer says Beijing is roughly one-third of the way through its season target. The program, funded via the Commodity Credit Corporation and administered by FSA, echoes Trump’s 2018–19 trade-aid packages and arrives as crop prices hover near multi-year lows and fertilizer costs rise. Since March, more than $9 billion has already been distributed under earlier 2024–25 assistance programs, the bulk going to corn and soybean producers.
Chinese President Xi, in an economic meeting with non-party members reported by Xinhua, said China will work to stabilize jobs and markets and reaffirmed that 2025 has been an “unusual” year but that the country will still smoothly meet its main economic targets. Xi emphasized the need to reinforce growth momentum, maintain reasonable economic expansion, and ensure that China’s annual economic goals are fully achieved, underscoring continued confidence in policy support heading into 2026.
Corn
S 1000 k 425 p vs b k 470 c 3 7/8 cr vs 450 1/2
B 100 n 410 p vs s 470 c 12 ¾ cr
B 650 f 440/435 ps 1 3/4
S 200 h 440 p 10 vs 443 1/2
B 150 k 470 c vs s 410 p 7 ½ db
S 800 g 445p/455c strangles 15 1/8 vs 444
B 1600 z 460/410 ps 21 to 21 1/4
B 500 w3 460 c 3/4
B 200 z 500 c 20 1/2
Beans
B 1000 f 1130 c vs s 2000 f 1150 c ¾ db
S 3000 f 1040 p 1 vs 1093 1/4
S 2000 f 1050 p 1 3/4
S 300 h 1160 c 11 3/8
B 100 x 1100 straddle 112 7/8
B 200 u 1060p/1160c strangles 67 ¼
S 100 w3 1090 straddles 22 7/8
S 2000 h 1080 p 17 ½ to 16 7/8
B 1500 n 1100/1000 ps vs s 1250 c 13 ½ to 14 1/2
B 4500 f 1120/1160 cs 4 ¼ to 4 3/8 vs 1096 1/4
S 100 nx +50 cso c 10 1/2
S 200 nx +40 cso c 16 1/2
S 1000 f 1100 p 17 5/8 to 15 7/8
S 600 h 1100/1040 ps 19 1/8
B 100 nx even cso p 5 3/4
B 400 fh -10/even cs vs s -15 p 1 db
S 500 h 1080/1020 ps 12 7/8 vs 1109
B 1500 g 1070 p vs s g 1160 c 1 1/8 db vs 1108 1/2
S 2000 f 1120 c 5 ½ to 4 7/8
B 400 f 1140 c 2 1/8
B 500 f 1020 p 1/2
B 2000 f 1060 p 2 to 2 5/8
B 1000 w2 1080/1070 ps 1
B 500 f 1200 c 1/2
B 1000 f 1040 p 7/8 to 1 1/8
S 200 nx +15 cso p 10 ½ covered vs 29 1/2
B 1000 f 1110 c 5 ¼ to 5 1/2
S 100 n 1100p/1200c strangles 61
On a block
S 500 h 1110 p 30 ½ vs 1107
Soymeal
S 200 z 320 p 19.15 vs 325.6
B 600 f 600/280 ps 2.25 vs 305.8
B 500 n 310 p 12.25
B 200 n 370 c vs s 100 n 345 p 23.75 cr vs 320.3
B 200 h 315/335 cs vs s 295 p .80 db
B 400 h 310/305 ps 2.20 to 2.45
B 200 k 320 c 12.30
S 200 k 310 p 12.00
B 200 n 360 c vs s 100 n 325 p 7.50 cr
B 300 q 365 c vs s 150 q 335 p 14.25 to 14.00 cr
B 500 f 300 p 2.90 to 3.15
S 200 h 320 p 14.70
B 300 f 320 c 1.25 to 1.35
On a block
S 750 k 335 c 7.50
B 550 k 340 c 6.35
Bean oil
S 100f 5050p/53c strangle .955 vs 5116
S 100 h 50/45 ps and h 5450/62 cs 2.305 cr
S 400 h 55/60 cs .790
S 750 h 54 c 1.685 to 1.640
S 100 h 48 p .750
B 150 f 4750 p .070
B 200 f 55 c .145
S 500 h 49 p 1.035
Wheat
S 100 f 535 straddles 22 7/8
S 200 g 520 p 8 1/4
b 350 h 575 c 8 3/4
B 300 h 550 c 15 ½
B 100 h 440 p 1/2
B 750 h 600 c 5
B 100 h 645/665 cs 1 3/4
S 300 h 540 c 21 3/8 vs 539 1/2
B 200 f 520 p 5 3/8 to 5 3/4
sources
news bloomberg
options data globex
vols bloomberg
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