CME Livestock Daily Options Report

By: PJ Quaid, Senior VP, Agricultural Commodities

Thu, 08 Jan 2026, 15:47

The Trump administration rolled out new U.S. dietary guidelines alongside an updated federal food pyramid, signaling a clear shift in nutrition policy toward higher protein consumption and stricter limits on added sugar. The guidance emphasizes whole foods and higher-quality protein sources while identifying sugar as a key driver of obesity and chronic disease, reinforcing a broader push to curb sugar intake across American diets. The White House promoted the new pyramid publicly as part of this messaging reset, aligning with policy priorities championed by Robert F. Kennedy Jr. The changes are expected to influence school meals, federal nutrition programs, and food labeling and formulation, with potential ripple effects across agriculture, food manufacturing, and public health debates.

Cal-Maine Foods, the largest egg producer in the United States, said bird flu remains an “extremely strong” threat, underscoring ongoing risks to poultry supply both domestically and globally. Nearly 500 outbreaks were reported across 26 countries in October and November, highlighting the broad global presence of the virus. In the U.S., the outbreak that began in 2022 has affected more than 185 million birds across over 900 commercial operations, with new detections continuing in commercial flocks. Despite reporting earnings that topped expectations, Cal-Maine’s shares fell, reflecting investor’s concern that persistent bird flu disruptions will continue to pressure supply, keep egg prices elevated, and create uncertainty for producers.

Mexico announced a zero-tariff import quota for Brazilian meat, a move that could increase Brazilian exports into the Mexican market and heighten competition for other suppliers. The decision comes amid broader efforts by Mexico to manage food prices and diversify sourcing while navigating ongoing global tariff pressures. By allowing a set volume of Brazilian meat to enter duty-free, the policy may put near-term pressure on regional meat markets and trade flows, particularly for U.S. exporters that have traditionally supplied Mexico, while reinforcing Brazil’s growing role as a low-cost protein supplier in global trade.

U.S. economic data showed a notably stronger tone in December, led by the ISM services sector. The services PMI rose to 54.4, beating all estimates and marking the fastest pace of expansion in over a year, with gains in new orders, employment, and business activity. The ISM new orders index jumped to 57.9 from 52.9, while the employment index rebounded to 52.0 from 48.9, signaling improving labor demand. Price pressures eased modestly, with the ISM prices index slipping to 64.3, a nine-month low but still elevated. In manufacturing-linked data, October factory orders declined 1.3% month over month, though durable goods excluding transportation edged up 0.1%. Canada’s December Ivey PMI came in at 51.9, indicating modest expansion. Overall, the data point to reaccelerating U.S. services activity with firm demand and employment, even as price pressures cool slightly and manufacturing remains mixed.

Cal-Maine Foods reported a sharp year-over-year decline in fiscal second-quarter results due to significantly lower egg prices. Net income fell 52% from a year earlier to $2.13 per share for the quarter ended Nov. 29, while sales declined 19% to $769.5 million, missing analyst expectations. Shell egg sales, which account for about 84% of total revenue, dropped 28%, driven by a 41% plunge in conventional egg sales, though specialty eggs were relatively resilient. Management said diversification efforts and a favorable product mix helped support performance despite pricing pressure, and prepared foods revenue rose from a year earlier, even as it slipped sequentially due to short-term production issues. Shares edged higher in premarket trading, reflecting investor confidence in longer-term earnings durability as the business mix continues to evolve.

Hogs

Sold 100 June 106/114 call spread v. 96 puts @ .55

Sold 250 Oct 88 puts @ 5.475 down to 5.45

Bought 150 Feb 86 calls paid 1.475

Bought 150 Feb 76 puts paid .1750

Bought 200 June 108 calls paid 2.80 covered 2.80

Live Cattle

Bought 200 April 252 calls paid 1.65

Sold 200 June 220 puts @ 5.60 down to 5.50

Sold 300 Feb 238/246 call spreads @ 1.825 down to 1.775

Sold 250 June 238 calls @ 5.85

Sold 250 June 240 calls @ 5.10

Sold 250 Feb 236 calls @ 3.50

Bought 250 April 232/222 put spread paid 2.85

Sold 225 April 241 calls @ 4.375 down to 4.325

Sold 250 April 240 calls @ 4.750

Bought 3000 June 220/210 put spread paid 2.45

Bought 100 Feb 224/219 put spread paid .525

Sold 300 April 218 puts @ 2.225 down to 2.15

Sold 150 Feb 228 puts @ 1.75 covered 234.575

Feeder cattle

Bought 100 may 352/322 put spreads paying 9.100

sources
news bloomberg
options data globex

Meats & Livestock

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Perspective: Morning Commentary for August 7

August 7 – The U.S. economy unexpectedly lost 23k jobs in July, dramatically below market expectations of an 80k increase and marking the worst Non-Farm Payrolls print since February. Furthermore, May and June were both revised sharply downward, with combined revisions showing 103k fewer jobs than previously reported. Outside of the healthcare sector, which added 22k jobs in July, the losses were very broad-based. Government payrolls saw the largest decline, shedding 53k jobs in July, the largest seen since October 2025, while June was revised down to show a loss of 10k jobs as well. The private sector at least saw growth, adding 30k jobs in July, now matching the month prior after it was revised down from the 49k initially reported, and substantially missing forecasts of 78k jobs being added. This is a sharp reversal in course from the largely better than expected U.S. labor data seen earlier this week.

Mike CastleFri, 07 Aug 2026, 13:26

Grains & Oilseeds
Energy
Dairy
Renewable Fuels
Cocoa
Coffee
Cotton
Sugar
Meats & Livestock
Forest Products

Perspective: Morning Commentary for August 6

August 6 – This morning’s stronger-than-expected U.S. labor data offered markets some relief, reinforcing confidence in the economy while giving the Fed greater flexibility to raise rates should inflationary pressures reaccelerate in next week’s July data. Stock futures are pointing to a mixed open to start the day, with the tech-heavy Nasdaq showing the most weakness. The VIX has fallen notably from yesterday’s spike above 18.4 as it starts the day hovering just below the 16-mark. The dollar is quietly higher as it trades just above 99.8, holding in the tight range seen thus far this week as traders continue to digest data to shape expectations for the Fed’s next move, which we’ll dive into in more depth below. Long-term treasury yields have relaxed slightly from their recent spike, with 30-year yields starting the day trading just above 5.19%, while 10-year yields trade above 4.64%, and 2-year yields sit below 4.22%. Crude oil is modestly higher to start the session after sharp declines earlier in the week, with nearby WTI up 1.8% to trade at $76.40 and nearby Brent up 2.4% to trade at $81.40. Meanwhile, the ags are quietly mixed to start the day.

Mike CastleThu, 06 Aug 2026, 13:24

Grains & Oilseeds
Energy
Dairy
Renewable Fuels
Cocoa
Coffee
Cotton
Sugar
Meats & Livestock
Forest Products

Perspective: Morning Commentary for August 5

August 5 – U.S. equities markets are on fire this week, with both the Dow Jones and S&P 500 setting new all-time highs yesterday with futures indicating further gains again today; the marketplace remains optimistic over a deal with Iran despite no evidence of such as of yet. Crude oil is working on a lower high and low today but remains slightly on the high side on the session, while the dollar is retreating back towards Monday’s nearly two-month low. The ten-year note is steady-to-lower this morning (though solidly lower so far this month) at 4.605%, while the VIX index continues to rebound into mid-week at almost a 17-point reading this morning.

Matt ZellerWed, 05 Aug 2026, 12:39

Grains & Oilseeds
Energy
Dairy
Renewable Fuels
Cocoa
Coffee
Cotton
Sugar
Meats & Livestock
Forest Products

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