The most recent funding package fully funded the U.S. Department of Agriculture for the current fiscal year, meaning USDA operations and reporting are not expected to be disrupted even if a broader government shutdown occurs. As a result, key USDA agricultural reports and data releases should continue as scheduled, providing ongoing transparency for grain, oilseed, and livestock markets. Any risk to USDA reporting would only arise if future funding deadlines are not addressed.
After more than two decades of negotiations, the European Union and India have reached a trade agreement that reflects shifting global trade dynamics rather than a sudden breakthrough in bilateral relations. Both blocs run structural trade surpluses with the United States, and both have strong incentives to preserve the current global trade order while insulating themselves from rising U.S. protectionism. The deal is less about dramatically expanding EU-India trade in the near term and more about strategic alignment—locking in rules, reducing uncertainty, and strengthening leverage as Washington pushes reciprocal tariffs and tougher market-access demands. In that sense, the agreement is as much a geopolitical hedge against U.S. trade pressure as it is a traditional free-trade pact, allowing both sides to diversify partnerships without fundamentally disrupting the status quo that has benefited their export-led sectors.
The latest Bloomberg Farm Brief suggests that year-round E15 remains an active and constructive policy issue for the grain markets, even if the path forward is gradual. Farm-state House Democrats are pushing to be included in the E15 Rural Domestic Energy Council, signaling continued political focus on protecting and expanding ethanol demand, while President Trump has publicly backed permanent E15 and put the onus on Congress to deliver legislation. For customers, the key takeaway is that U.S. ethanol demand is unlikely to be rolled back and instead retains a durable policy floor, which helps stabilize corn demand into 2026 and limits downside risk during periods of macro or energy market volatility.
Canada’s widening November trade deficit shows how risky its “elbows up” posture toward the U.S. really is, as falling exports to its largest customer quickly translated into weaker trade performance. Despite talk of diversification, Canada has no near-term alternative market that can replace U.S. demand, especially for energy and agriculture. Pushing a confrontational stance risks self-inflicted damage through softer growth, a weaker currency, and reduced leverage rather than real economic gains.
Roger’s Roll begins today in the grain markets, bringing mechanical index-style flows that shift exposure from nearby to deferred contracts. The impact is primarily felt in spreads rather than outright prices, with nearby contracts facing pressure and deferred months finding support, often widening carry structures. Corn typically sees the cleanest effect through weaker front months and firmer back months, wheat spreads can move sharply due to thinner liquidity, and soybeans may show noisier behavior as meal and export flows partially offset the roll. These moves are flow-driven rather than fundamental, often distorting price signals during the window and stabilizing once the roll is complete.
The U.S. trade deficit widened sharply in November to $56.8 billion as imports rebounded and exports declined, reversing what had been the smallest trade gap since 2009. Exports fell 3.6% on the month, while imports rose 5%, driven largely by capital goods and a surge in inbound pharmaceutical shipments. Although the deficit remains smaller than in recent years, the size and speed of the widening highlight volatile trade flows tied to shifting tariff policy considerations and will factor into economists’ estimates for fourth-quarter GDP growth.
President Donald Trump said he spoke with Mexico’s President Claudia Sheinbaum, signaling renewed high-level engagement between the two governments. While no details were provided, the timing suggests discussions around border security, migration, and trade coordination, all of which have potential implications for U.S.–Mexico relations and cross-border agricultural trade under USMCA.
Darling Ingredients reported improving fourth-quarter earnings alongside a constructive outlook for agriculture-linked markets, with its Diamond Green Diesel joint venture earning $55 million in net income in Q4 and shipping about 285 million gallons, as margins rebounded to roughly $0.41 per gallon. Management emphasized that demand for agricultural byproducts—particularly animal fats and other feedstocks used in renewable fuels—is strengthening, supporting both the biofuels segment and the core ingredients business. The company also pointed to a more favorable policy backdrop, citing progress on 45Z clean fuel credits and evolving EPA RVO rules, which are expected to further support domestic, ag-derived products and improve earnings power heading into 2026.
Hogs
Sold 100 Oct 100/80 combo @ .20 down to .175 covered 90.55
Bought 500 March 94 puts paid 1.85 up to 1.90
Sold 150 Feb 89/86 combo @ .075 down to .05 selling the call
Bought 150 Feb 90 calls paid 3.00
Bought 250 June 114 calls paid 2.60 up to 2.625 covered 108.55
Sold 500 March 97 calls @ 2.00 down to 1.70
Sold 600 April 90 puts @ 1.25 down to 1.1750
Bought 150 May 102 puts paid 5.60
Sold 100 Aug 112/116 call spread @ 1.30
Live Cattle
Sold 1500 April 242 calls @ 3.65 down to 3.40
Bought 300 Feb 238 calls paid 1.25
Bought 200 April230 puts paid 2.775 covered 237.775
Bought 450 Oct 202 puts paid 2.675 up to 2.825
Bought 400 Oct 226/214 put spread v. 250 calls paid .30 up to .35
Sold 100 Aug 178 puts @ .6250
Bought 500 Feb 235/230 put spreads paid 1.00 up to 1.10
Bought 300 June 242/240 put spreads paid 1.15
Bought 100 April 238/230 put spread paid 2.525 up to 2.575
Bought 300 April 239/234 put spread paid 1.825 up to 1.850
Bought 200 April 239/235 put spread paid 1.575
Sold 300 April 240 puts @ 5.825 down to 5.80
Feeder Cattle
Bought 100 March 360/350 put spreads paid 2.775 up to 2.80
Sold 100 March 350/340 put spreads @ 1.52 down to 1.50
Bought 250 April 235 puts paid 4.25 up to 4.30 covered 238.05
Bought 250 April 242 calls paid 3.5750 covered 238.05
Bought 100 March 390 calls paid 1.50
Bought 100 April 358/344 puts paid 4.30
Sold 100 April 363/353 combo @ 4.60 down to 4.575 Selling the Call
Sold 100 March 370 calls @ 6.90 down to 6.775
Bought 250 March 350 puts paid 3.50 covered 366.50
Sold 100 April 363 calls @ 11.95 down to 11.85
sources
news bloomberg
options data globex
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