The April Cattle on Feed report was largely in line with expectations, with on-feed numbers at 99.5% and March placements near estimates, signaling no surprise shifts in supply. The key nuance was slightly higher-than-expected marketings at 94.5%, indicating steady packer demand and good throughput. Overall, the report reinforces a stable but tight supply environment, with no evidence of herd expansion and enough marketings to keep cattle moving, supporting the broader constructive outlook for cattle prices.
Equity markets continue to push higher, with both the S&P 500 and NASDAQ Composite closing at fresh all-time highs, underscoring strong risk appetite and sustained momentum in growth and large-cap stocks. At the same time, the VIX slipping below 17.50 reflects subdued volatility expectations and a market that is increasingly comfortable with the current macro backdrop, reinforcing the bullish tone across equities.
Lean hog futures have now declined for nine consecutive sessions, reflecting a sustained wave of selling pressure tied to softening demand signals and a lack of bullish catalysts. The move suggests the market is actively repricing near-term fundamentals, with weaker export demand, ample product availability, and cautious wholesale activity weighing on sentiment. At the same time, the absence of strong packer margin support or aggressive end-user buying has left the market vulnerable to continued liquidation, reinforcing a negative technical tone as momentum-driven selling compounds the fundamental weakness.
Central bank commentary is turning more cautious as policymakers flag rising risks tied to energy markets and slowing labor force growth. Christopher Waller emphasized that while the Fed could look through inflation if oil supply disruptions ease quickly, a prolonged shock could lead to persistent price pressures that markets may be underestimating, particularly if inflation expectations begin to shift. He also noted emerging softness in the labor market, leaving the economy more vulnerable to external shocks. Meanwhile, Tiff Macklem signaled a potentially large upcoming CPI print, reinforcing near-term inflation uncertainty. Taken together, the message suggests policymakers remain data-dependent but increasingly focused on supply-driven inflation risks rather than demand alone.
The U.S. is pushing for coordinated global action to safeguard fertilizer access, with officials urging G20 members, along with the International Monetary Fund and World Bank, to work together to prevent disruptions in agricultural supply chains. According to Reuters and Bloomberg reporting, Scott Bessent is leading the effort, emphasizing multilateral cooperation amid rising concerns that fertilizer shortages could threaten global food production and stability.
A sharp weather shift is set to hit the Eastern U.S., as a “bulging lobe” of the tropospheric polar vortex moves through this weekend into early next week, bringing a strong cold front and abruptly ending recent summer-like warmth. Temperatures in the Mid-Atlantic, including Washington, D.C., are expected to swing dramatically, with highs dropping roughly 40°F from the low 90s to the low 50s by Monday. The move highlights continued volatility in spring weather patterns, with rapid transitions from unseasonable heat back to more typical or below-normal temperatures.
Live Cattle
Bought 6000 June 270 calls paid .350 up to .50
Sold 6502 May/June 230/215 put spread @ .10
Sold 150 June 245 puts @ 5.835 covered 245.325 On a Block
Sold 150 June 244/254 call spread @ 4.20
Bought 220/215 put spread paid .20
Bought 250 Aug 260/280 call spread paid 1.575 up to 1.750
Bought 100 May 246/240 put spread paid 1.90 up to 1.95
Sold 100 May 250/254 call spread @ 1.15
Sold 600 May 250/254 call spreads @ 1.225 down to 1.10
Bought 150 June 230/210 put spread paid .85
Sold 250 June 252/260 call spread @ 2.20 down to 2.00
Hogs
Bought 1500 July 110 calls paid 1.4750 up to 1.60
Sold 350 July 110/120 call spread 1x2 @ .925 down to .825
Sold 500 June 102 calls @ 2.40 down to 2.3250
Sold 400 June 100 put @ 2.25 down to 2.225
Bought 100 June 104/110/116 call fly paid .85
Bought 350 Aug 110/116 call spread paid 1.25 up to 1.325
Bought 150 Aug 92 puts paid .9250
Bought 200 July 104 straddle paid 7.650
Bought 1500 June 105 calls paid 1.2750 up to 1.45
Sold 500 June 102/112 call spread 1x3 @ 1.475 down to 1.45
Bought 500 May 96 calls paid .40 up to .70
Bought 300 Aug 98 puts paid 1.95 up to 2.125
Bought 100 Aug 120 calls paid .6750
Sold 200 Aug 112 calls @ 1.925
Sold 100 Oct 82 puts @ 1.925
Bought 200 June 108 puts paid 7.750 up to 8.00
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