Wasde tomorrow.
Trump’s comments injected new uncertainty into the USMCA renewal process, as he said he may not renew the trade agreement with Canada and Mexico despite its importance to North American trade. The remarks come as U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer has begun talks with Mexico, with Mexican officials expected in Washington next week and Canada preparing its own technical discussions. While USMCA remains a key framework supporting roughly $2 trillion in regional trade and more than $900 billion in U.S. imports from Canada and Mexico, Trump’s criticism signals that the renewal process could become more contentious, with the administration likely using the talks to push for tougher terms and greater U.S. leverage across autos, energy, agriculture, and broader supply chains.
The weekly ethanol report was mildly supportive for corn, but not a major bullish surprise. Ethanol stocks fell 0.6% on the week to 24.452 million barrels, showing some improvement in the supply picture, although inventories were still above the trade estimate and remain 3% above last year. Production held steady at 1.108 million barrels per day, slightly below expectations but still running at a healthy pace, with the 4-week average above year-ago levels. Blender inputs improved modestly, which points to steady demand, but not a breakout. Overall, ethanol continues to provide a reliable demand base for corn, while the higher year-over-year stock level keeps the market from treating this as a strongly bullish report.
May CPI came in mostly in line on the headline but a touch cooler at the core level. Core CPI rose 0.2% month over month versus +0.3% expected, while the year-over-year core reading matched expectations at 2.9%. Headline CPI rose 0.5% month over month and 4.2% year over year, both in line with estimates. The initial read is mildly constructive for rates and risk sentiment because the core monthly print was softer than expected, but the elevated headline year-over-year number keeps inflation pressure from being fully dismissed. For commodities, this likely leans slightly dollar/rates negative at the margin, but not enough by itself to change the broader Fed/inflation narrative.
Mexico is pushing back in USMCA talks because its auto sector appears to be facing a worse effective tariff position than competitors in Japan and South Korea. According to the Bloomberg summary, Mexican auto exports are seeing an average tariff near 19%, above the 15% tariff applied to some vehicles from South Korea and Japan. The issue stems from complicated USMCA rules-of-origin requirements, which can raise compliance costs for Mexican producers and leave them at a disadvantage despite Mexico being inside the North American trade bloc. USTR Jamieson Greer has reportedly acknowledged that Mexican autos should be in a better position and said the US is exploring alternatives, but any solution still runs through the broader political goal of reshoring auto production and keeping Chinese or Vietnamese content out of North American supply chains. For markets, this keeps trade uncertainty elevated around autos, Mexico, and USMCA as the July review deadline approaches.
Corn
S 3000 n 415 p 5 ¾ to 4 7/8 vs 419 1/4
S 500 u 480 c 5 7/8
S 1000 n 425 c 5 1/8 to 4 1/2
B 1500 n 440 c 1 ¾ to 2
S 500 n 440 c 2
S 500 sd n 455 c 4 1/4
B 1000 sd n 465 c 2 3/8
S 250 sd u 500 c 5 7/8
B 1500 sd n 470 c 1 7/8
B 1400 n 440 c 1 ¾ vs 420 1/2
B 100 z27 510 c 27 vs 478
S 1300 u 425 straddles 38 ½ to 37
B 1000 sd n 468 c 2
B 100 sd f 590 c 2 1/2
S 450 z 460 c 21 ¼ vs 448
B 750 sd u 460 c 15 7/8
B 1500 u 480/500 cs 2 1/8
B 2000 z 530 c 6 ¾ to 7
S 500 sd n 450 c 6 3/4
B 1000 u 580 c 1 1/4
B 250 n27 475 c 38 ¼ vs 477 3/4
B 500 h 500/550 cs vs s 420 p 5/8 cr
B 800 u 465 c 8 ¾ vs 429
S 150 h 475/460/410 skinny put flies 15 3/4
S 150 sd q 470 c 9 1/2
B 900 n 430 c vs 421 against s 900 q 410 p vs 429 collecting 3 3/4
S 600 u 425 straddles 38 ½ to 38 3/8
On a block
B 32,000 z 490/530 cs 6 3/8
Beans
B 1000 u 1170/1250 cs 14 1/8
B 500 x 1200/1250 cs 9 1/2
S 800 n 1140 c 7 ¾
S 1000 n 1130 c 11 5/8 to 11
B 500 n 1150 c 5 1/4
B 100 q 1100 p vs s 200 q 1050 p 6 ½ db
B 800 x 1200/1300 cs 16 1/2
B 1000 x 1300 c 12
B 500 x 1230/1350 cs 13 ½
B 500 n 1150 c vs s 1000 n 1180 c 2 ½ db
B 1000 sd q 1160 c vs s 2000 sd q 1200 c ¾ db
B 750 x 1250/1350 cs vs s 1000 p 4 7/8 db
Soymeal
S 200 n 305 p 5.60
B 500 z 340/380 cs 3.70
B 150 u 320 c 4.70'
S 200 q 295 p 3.75
S 200 q 300 p 5.95
S 200 z 300 p 10.95 vs 306.6
B 1900 z 300p/315c strangles 22.70 to 23.00 vs 306.6
S 600 q 310 c 5.30 vs 303.5
Bean oil
S 100 n 7850 c .500
S 100 z 76 p 5.650
B 100 z 71/80 cs vs s 61 p 1.600 db
S 200 q 74 c 2.605 vs 7389
B 500 n 75 p 1.280 vs 7551
B 500 q 73p/76c strangles 4.070
B 350 n 7350 p .690
B 100 n 80 c .295
Wheat
B 100 z 1050 c 1 7/8
S 100 n 590/580 ps 4 3/4
B 600 w2 580 p 3
B 100 q 870 c 3/8
B 100 u 560/540 ps 5 1/8
S 600 q 590 straddles 45 ½ to 44 1/2
B 100 u 625 c 21 3/8
Kc wheat
B 100 z 1300 c 1
B 600 w2 630 p 5 1/4
S 600 q 635 straddles 47 ¼ to 46 1/2
S 600 n 660 c 5 1/4
Crush
B 100 z 270/250 ps 6 1/2
Rough rice
On a block
B 100 n 1260 c vs s 1220 p paying even
Lean hogs
B 850 z 72p/80c strangles 6.775
B 500 q 105 c 1.025 to 1.050
S 200 q 96 straddles 7.550
B 100 n 106 c .250
B 300 v 84 p 8.300
B 1000 z 80 c 2.700 to 2.9750
B 100 v 94 c 1.200
B 1500 v 50 p .150
S 100 q 102 c 1.350
B 500 j 74 p 2.625
B 200 q 96 c 3.750
Live cattle
S 200 q 254 c 1.525
B 500 v 210 c 1.900
B 500 q 242 c vs s 232 p 2.850 db
B 300 q 238 p 5.300
B 1000 q 262 c .700 to .750
S 500 v 214 p 2.050 to 2.025
