Coffee, Cocoa Regions at Center of Colombia’s Security Debate Ahead of First Round of Presidential Elections

Coffee, Cocoa Regions at Center of Colombia’s Security Debate Ahead of First Round of Presidential Elections

Coffee Network (Bogotá) — Security has emerged as a defining issue ahead of Colombia’s May 31 presidential election, with conservative candidates pledging to regain territorial control in rural areas where violence, extortion and armed group activity have intensified under President Gustavo Petro’s “Total Peace” policy.

The debate has become particularly relevant in agricultural regions such as Colombia’s coffee- and cocoa-producing departments, where growers report increasing pressure from dissident armed groups seeking territorial and financial control.

An AtlasIntel poll released Saturday showed far-right candidate Abelardo de la Espriella surging in voter intention and virtually tied with far-left candidate Iván Cepeda. Cepeda, widely viewed as representing continuity with Petro’s administration, led with 38.7% support, while De la Espriella followed closely with 37.3%.

As no candidate is expected to secure the 50% plus one vote required to win outright in the first round, Colombia is widely expected to head to a runoff election on June 21. According to the poll, De la Espriella would defeat Cepeda in a second round with 50% support against 41.3%.

Center-right candidate Paloma Valencia polled at 14.3%, though the survey projected she would also defeat Cepeda in a runoff, by 44.6% to 41.5%.

The survey was based on 4,531 interviews conducted between May 18-21.

Petro, elected in 2022, became Colombia’s first leftist president.

Security and “Total Peace” Under Scrutiny

Enrique Gómez, Senate leader of the Salvación Nacional party, controlled by De la Espriella, said Colombia’s main challenge is restoring operational control across the country and strengthening public order through a more robust security strategy.

According to Gómez, security conditions have deteriorated under Petro’s “Total Peace” framework, which seeks negotiated settlements with armed groups.

Crime figures have reinforced concerns over public safety. Homicides totaled 6,642 cases between January and June 2025, up 3% from 6,442 during the same period a year earlier, according to Defense Ministry data cited by Insight Crime.

Kidnappings also increased, with authorities reporting 121 cases in the first half of 2025 compared with 108 in the same period of 2024. While the number of incidents rose 12%, the number of victims climbed 53%, from 129 to 198.

Insight Crime said the data reflect growing instability in rural regions and highlight the challenges facing Petro’s strategy in curbing violence and organized crime.

Violence in Coffee- and Cocoa-Producing Regions

Huila, Colombia’s largest coffee-producing department, is facing mounting extortion pressure from dissident factions of the former Farc guerrilla group, which are allegedly charging coffee growers fees based on the number of coffee trees planted on their farms, according to local reports and testimony from a grower who requested anonymity.

Several dissident groups, including factions linked to aliases Calarcá and Iván Mordisco, are reportedly demanding payments of up to COP300 ($0.07) per coffee tree, while other groups charge lower rates, the grower told Coffee Network.

According to the source, two brothers who sold coffee to the cooperative Coopcentral were killed after refusing to comply with extortion demands imposed by one of the armed groups.

Violence linked to extortion and territorial control has increasingly affected Colombia’s coffee sector in recent years. One of the most high-profile cases occurred in August 2023 in Algeciras, Huila, where brothers José Dilmer Toro Álvarez, 20, and Alexander Toro Álvarez, 17, were killed inside their home in the village of Las Brisas. Authorities attributed the attack to armed groups targeting residents who refused to pay extortion fees.

Another widely reported incident took place in April 2024 in La Plata, Huila, when siblings Luisa Fernanda and Sergio Trujillo Peña were killed after an explosive device detonated at a service station. Authorities linked the attack to reprisals by dissident groups associated with alias Iván Mordisco over the non-payment of so-called vacunas, or extortion payments.

More recently, dissident factions have reportedly summoned presidents of local community action boards (Juntas de Acción Comunal) and informed them that all coffee growers in their jurisdictions must pay fees per coffee tree, according to the grower.

“The situation is very serious,” the source said.

The alleged extortion schemes are affecting municipalities including Acevedo, Garzón, Algeciras, Hobo and La Plata, the grower added.

Elections and Armed Group Influence

The grower also alleged that illegal armed groups are “carnetizando” residents — issuing identification cards or permits allegedly required to move through certain areas. In Colombia, carnetizar generally refers to providing identification documents, but in conflict zones the term can also describe coercive systems of territorial and social control imposed by armed groups.

The source further claimed that dissident factions are pressuring residents to support left-wing presidential candidate Iván Cepeda ahead of the upcoming elections.

A coffee grower in Antioquia — Colombia’s second-largest coffee-producing department — said he has also been forced to pay extortion fees to guerrilla groups operating near his farm close to the Ituango hydroelectric project in order to transport coffee beans to ports.

Coffee Sector Proposals

De la Espriella’s Security Agenda

De la Espriella has proposed building 10 large-scale prisons across Colombia, modeled after the prison system implemented by Salvadoran President Nayib Bukele. The proposed mega-prisons are intended to prevent criminals from being released because of prison overcrowding or failures in the judicial system, while also stopping criminal organizations from operating inside detention centers.

The candidate has linked the initiative to what he describes as a “temporary” legal framework that would allow authorities to arrest, prosecute and keep offenders in prison without release.

“We need a special temporary legal framework that allows us to attack this criminal pandemic in the best possible way,” De la Espriella said. “Colombia’s situation is not normal — it is completely abnormal. This is a criminal pandemic.”

The proposal mirrors security policies adopted by right-wing governments that De la Espriella has publicly praised, although similar measures have faced criticism from international organizations, including the Organization of American States (OAS), over alleged human rights violations.

De la Espriella has also pledged to regain territorial control and end all peace negotiations with armed groups. To achieve that, he proposes a type of “Plan Colombia II” focused on aggressive military operations against illegal armed organizations.

“We have to retake the territories with the resources we currently have because I will inherit a demoralized and underfunded security force,” he said. “We also need to renew a strategic alliance with the United States and Israel.”

The candidate has promised to reduce violence by 50% and restore full territorial control nationwide.

His strategy also includes resuming aerial bombings against armed groups. “We have to bomb narco-guerrilla camps,” he said, arguing such actions are necessary in regions including Cauca. To support these operations, he proposes reactivating and strengthening military intelligence capabilities.

As part of his broader security platform, De la Espriella also proposes creating a “first line of security” composed of retired military personnel and reservists working alongside citizens and law enforcement to combat crimes such as cellphone, bicycle and bag theft.

He says the initiative would help reclaim neighborhood parks and public spaces from microtrafficking gangs. The proposal resembles a similar initiative promoted by Rodrigo Lara Restrepo during his 2023 campaign for mayor of Bogotá.

De la Espriella has also proposed reducing the size of the state by 40%.

The candidate is perceived as having strong support among coffee growers. Former senator Alejandro Corrales, a long-time advocate for Colombia’s coffee sector, is currently coordinating political efforts for De la Espriella in his home department.

Cepeda’s Agrarian Reform Proposals

Cepeda has pledged to add 1 million hectares to Colombia’s agrarian reform program. According to government figures, more than 700,000 hectares had been incorporated into the Land Fund as of December, although only about 270,000 hectares had been formally distributed to farmers and ethnic communities.

The Petro administration achieved those figures with record funding for the National Land Agency (ANT), though Cepeda’s proposal would require significant fiscal resources at a time when Colombia faces mounting budget pressures.

The senator also proposes expanding subsidies for agricultural production, including the delivery of machinery and other support programs.

One of the main criticisms of Petro’s land reform strategy has been the lack of productive projects capable of making redistributed land economically viable for farmers.

Cepeda also wants to reform Colombia’s public procurement framework to make it easier for community organizations, community kitchens and farmers’ markets to access public contracts and tenders. He has additionally pledged to deepen left-wing reforms and expand services and benefits for victims of the armed conflict.

Valencia’s Security and Energy Platform

Valencia has pledged to add 30,000 soldiers and 30,000 police officers, arguing that security must be restored before civilian institutions can effectively operate in conflict zones.

She has proposed militarizing roads and municipalities affected by criminal governance, while deploying military engineering battalions and a civic police force to support territorial consolidation efforts, similar to policies implemented during former president Álvaro Uribe’s administration.

To finance the strategy, Valencia proposes increasing security and defense spending by about COP20 trillion ($5bn) during her four-year term, raising military investment to around 4% of GDP from the current 3.4%.

Valencia has also pledged to revive Colombia’s oil, gas, coal and fracking industries, arguing that economic growth is impossible without affordable energy.

Her platform includes restarting fracking projects suspended under Petro, expanding onshore and offshore gas exploration, strengthening Ecopetrol’s governance and increasing oil production to 1mn b/d.

She also argues that prior consultation with local communities should not function as a veto over extractive projects. Instead, she proposes allowing communities to become stakeholders in mining, energy and infrastructure developments to reshape relations between companies, the state and local populations.

By Diana Delgado

Published polls and speeches of the candidates