Daily Coffee Report 6/12/26
Daily coffee report
StoneX Coffee Team
- Coffee
Coffee Markets Enter Transition Phase as Brazil Harvest Advances and Supply Signals Shift
By: Alexis Rubinstein, Managing Editor - Coffee Network
CoffeeNetwork (New York) - The global coffee market is entering a decisive transition period in mid‑May 2026, as bearish supply expectations increasingly collide with lingering structural tightness, creating a complex and often contradictory price environment.
Arabica futures have continued to trend lower in recent sessions, with prices hovering near 278 US cents per pound as of May 12, marking a sharp decline of more than 25% from year-ago levels. The primary driver behind this sustained weakness is the growing consensus around a significantly larger Brazilian crop for the 2026/27 cycle. Forecasts across the market suggest output could reach between 70 and 75 million bags, supported by favorable weather, an “on-year” in the biennial cycle, and expanded producer investment following the high-price environment of recent years.
Harvest conditions in Brazil have thus far reinforced these expectations. Dry weather across key producing regions has facilitated early picking and improved the outlook for both yield and quality, further embedding a bearish tone into futures markets. Yet despite this seemingly heavy supply picture, the downturn in prices has been comparatively orderly rather than disorderly, highlighting the persistence of underlying market tightness.
A critical factor moderating price declines is the continued reluctance of Brazilian farmers to aggressively sell into the market. A stronger Brazilian real has reduced incentives for exports, while many producers are strategically holding back stocks in anticipation of more favorable pricing later in the cycle. This dynamic has created what market participants increasingly describe as a “value trap,” in which ample supply exists on paper but flows into the physical market remain constrained, preventing a sharper correction.
At the same time, the robusta market is telling a different story. While arabica prices have faced downward pressure, robusta futures have shown renewed firmness, supported by tightening nearby availability. Inventories monitored by exchanges have fallen to multi-month lows, creating short-term supply stress in the physical market and prompting buyers to compete more aggressively for prompt shipments. Recent sessions have even seen a recovery in prices across both major exchanges, underscoring the continued volatility and divergence within the coffee complex.
Beyond Brazil, Vietnam is playing an increasingly influential role in shaping market sentiment. Export data for the first four months of 2026 indicates shipments of roughly 810,000 tonnes, up 15.8% year-on-year, signaling a return of robusta supply to global markets. However, this increase in volume stands in stark contrast to export value, which has declined due to falling prices. In fact, robusta prices have dropped sharply from the elevated levels seen in 2025, in some cases down by more than 30% year-on-year, reflecting the market’s adjustment to improved supply conditions.
This divergence between volume and value has become one of the defining features of the current market environment. While physical flows are increasing, particularly from Asia, the price structure is softening as traders and roasters begin to factor in a more balanced global supply outlook. The combination of Brazil’s large crop prospects and Vietnam’s strong export performance is reinforcing the narrative that the market is gradually shifting away from the acute tightness that characterized the previous two years.
Even so, the global supply picture remains more fragile than headline figures might suggest. Although production is expected to exceed consumption on paper in the coming cycle, inventories remain historically low and unevenly distributed across importing regions. This structural tightness continues to limit downside risk and ensures that the market remains highly sensitive to disruptions in key origins or logistical bottlenecks.
Macroeconomic and geopolitical factors are also exerting a growing influence. Currency movements, particularly the strength of the Brazilian real, are shaping producer behavior and export competitiveness. Meanwhile, ongoing tensions in key shipping corridors have contributed to elevated freight and insurance costs, adding another layer of complexity to global trade flows. Any easing of these geopolitical pressures could quickly translate into lower logistics costs and further downward pressure on prices, illustrating how closely coffee markets are now intertwined with broader global developments. [
On the regulatory front, the European Union’s deforestation regulation (EUDR) is evolving in ways that could reshape trade dynamics. A newly proposed extension would bring soluble coffee fully within the scope of the regulation, closing a loophole that had previously allowed certain products to bypass stringent traceability requirements. For exporters and roasters, this move signals rising compliance costs and underscores the growing importance of supply chain transparency across all segments of the market.
Looking ahead, weather remains a critical wildcard. Current forecasts suggest that ENSO conditions are transitioning from neutral toward a potential El Niño phase later in 2026, with probabilities exceeding 60% in the coming months. While the immediate impact on crops is limited, the timing of any shift in weather patterns could have significant implications for the next production cycle, particularly across Brazil, Southeast Asia, and parts of Africa.
Taken together, these developments highlight a market in transition. The extreme tightness and price spikes of the past two years are giving way to a more balanced supply outlook, led primarily by Brazil’s anticipated record harvest and renewed export momentum from Vietnam. At the same time, structural constraints—including low inventories, producer behavior, regulatory changes, and weather risks—continue to limit the extent of any price correction.
For now, the coffee market appears to be moving into a phase defined less by outright scarcity and more by negotiation between competing forces. Supply is improving, but not evenly. Prices are easing, but not collapsing. And volatility remains a defining feature, as the industry adjusts to a new equilibrium that is still very much in formation.
Alexis Rubinstein
- Coffee
This material should be construed as market commentary and represents the opinions and viewpoints of the author, and does not reflect tailored advice associated with any specific account.
The views are current only through the date stated and are subject to change at any time based upon market or other conditions, and StoneX Group Inc. (“SGI”) disclaims any responsibility to update such views. Actual results, performance, or achievements may differ materially from those expressed or implied. Information is based on data gathered from what we believe are reliable sources. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
The StoneX Group Inc. group of companies provides financial services worldwide through its subsidiaries, including physical commodities, securities, exchange-traded and over-the-counter derivatives, risk management, global payments and foreign exchange products in accordance with applicable law in the jurisdictions where services are provided.
References to certain OTC products or swaps are made on behalf of StoneX Markets, LLC (SXM), a member of the National Futures Association (NFA) and provisionally registered with the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as a swap dealer. SXM’s products are designed only for individuals or firms who qualify under CFTC rules as an ‘Eligible Contract Participant’ and who have been accepted as customers of SXM.
StoneX Financial Inc. (SFI) is a member of FINRA/NFA/SIPC and registered with the MSRB. SFI is registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) as a Broker-Dealer and with the CFTC as a Futures Commission Merchant and Commodity Trading Advisor. StoneX Financial (Canada) Inc. (SFCI) is registered in Canada and is a member of CIRO and CIPF. References to certain securities trading are made on behalf of the BD Division of SFI and are intended only for an audience of institutional clients as defined by FINRA Rule 4512(c). References to certain exchange-traded futures and options are made on behalf of the FCM Division of SFI. Wealth Management is offered through SA Stone Wealth Management Inc., member FINRA/SIPC, and SA Stone Investment Advisors Inc., an SEC-registered investment advisor, both wholly owned subsidiaries of SGI.
R.J. O’Brien & Associates, LLC (RJO) is registered with the CFTC as a Futures Commission Merchant and is a member of NFA.
StoneX Financial Ltd (SFL) is registered in England and Wales, company no. 5616586. SFL is authorized and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) (registration number FRN:446717) to provide services to professional and eligible customers including: arrangement, execution and, where required, clearing derivative transactions in exchange traded futures and options. SFL is also authorized to engage in the arrangement and execution of transactions in certain OTC products, certain securities trading, precious metals trading and payment services to eligible customers. SFL is authorized and regulated by the FCA under the Payment Services Regulations 2017 for the provision of payment services. SFL is a category 1 ring-dealing member of the London Metal Exchange. In addition SFL also engages in other physically delivered commodities business and other general business activities which are unregulated and not required to be authorized by the FCA.
This communication is issued in the European Economic Area by StoneX Financial Europe GmbH (SFEG). StoneX is the trade name used by STONEX GROUP INC. and all its associated entities and subsidiaries. StoneX Financial Europe GmbH (“SFEG”) is a securities trading firm registered in Germany under Company No. HRB 80844.
StoneX APAC Pte. Ltd. (“SAP”) (Co. Reg. No 200616676W) is regulated as a Dealer (PS20190001002) under the Precious Stones and Precious Metals (Prevention of Money Laundering and Terrorism Financing) Act 2019 for purposes of anti-money laundering and countering the financing of terrorism. SAP is an “Approved International Trading Company” authorized to act as a “Spot Commodity Broker” under the Commodity Trading Act.
StoneX Financial Pte Ltd (Co. Reg. No 201130598R) (“SFP”) is regulated by the Monetary Authority of Singapore and is a Capital Markets Service Licence holder (for dealing in capital market products), an Exempt Financial Adviser (for advising on investment products and issuing or promulgating analyses/ reports on investment products) and a Major Payment Institution (for domestic and cross-border money transfer services).
SFP may distribute analysis/report produced by its respective foreign affiliates within the StoneX Group of companies pursuant to an arrangement under Regulation 32C of the Financial Advisers Regulations Recipients should contact SFP at (65) 6309 1000 for any matters arising from, or in connection with, this webinar.
StoneX APAC Pte. Ltd. (“SAP”) (Co. Reg. No 200616676W) is regulated as a Dealer (PS20190001002) under the Precious Stones and Precious Metals (Prevention of Money Laundering and Terrorism Financing) Act 2019 for purposes of anti-money laundering and countering the financing of terrorism.
StoneX Financial (HK) Limited (CE No.: BCQ152) (“SHK”) is regulated by the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission for Dealing in Securities and Dealing in Futures Contracts.
StoneX Financial Pty Ltd (ACN 141 774 727) holds an Australian Financial Service License (AFSL: 345646) for Dealing in Securities, Exchange-Traded Derivatives Contracts, OTC Derivatives Contracts and Foreign Exchange Contracts, and is regulated by the Australian Securities and Investments Commission.
StoneX Securities Co., Ltd. (“SSJ”) (Co. Reg. No 010401047199) is regulated by the Japanese Financial Services Agency as a Type-I Financial Instruments Business Operator (Kanto Local Finance Bureau (FIBO)No.291’), is a member of the Financial Futures Association of Japan for dealing and broking FX and FX Option transactions, and is a member of the Japan Securities Dealers Association for dealing and broking stock indices and option transactions.
Trading swaps and over-the-counter derivatives, exchange-traded derivatives and options and securities involves substantial risk and is not suitable for all investors. Past performance of any futures or option is not indicative of future success. Indicators are not a trading system and are not published as a specific trade recommendation. The information herein is not a recommendation to trade nor investment research or an offer to buy or sell any derivative or security. It does not take into account your particular investment objectives, financial situation or needs and does not create a binding obligation on any of the StoneX group of companies to enter into any transaction with you. You are advised to perform an independent investigation of any transaction to determine whether any transaction is suitable for you. No part of this material may be copied, photocopied or duplicated in any form by any means or redistributed without the prior written consent of StoneX Group Inc.
The report/analysis herein is not directed to, or intended for distribution to or use by, any person or entity who is a citizen or resident of or located in any locality, state, country or other jurisdiction where such distribution, publication, availability or use would be contrary to law or regulation.
© 2026 StoneX Group Inc. All Rights Reserved.
Discover more insights
Our subscribers have access to comprehensive market analysis from StoneX spanning commodities, equities, currencies and more.
Related articles for Coffee
Perspective: Morning Commentary for June 12
June 12 – The ebb and flow of whether we have a deal with Iran or not continues, while Wall Street demonstrates that it wants to believe the positive at a time when earnings reports and much of the economic data point upward, despite some risks. Stock futures pushed higher on that optimism over a possible end to the war with Iran, along with enthusiasm over today’s highly anticipated SpaceX IPO. The VIX slipped lower to trade near 19, while the dollar index traded near 99.8. Yields on 10-year Treasuries are trading near 4.48%, while yields on 2-year Treasuries are trading near 4.08%. Money generally flowed out of both the energy and food-based commodities overnight on Iran peace prospects. WTI crude oil prices fell to an eight-week low overnight and are now trading near $85 per barrel, while Brent trades near $88 per barrel. The grain and oilseed markets were mostly lower as well.
Arlan Suderman
- Grains & Oilseeds
- Energy
- Dairy
- Renewable Fuels
- Cocoa
- Coffee
- Cotton
- Sugar
- Meats & Livestock
- Forest Products
Daily Coffee Report 6/11/26
Daily coffee report
StoneX Coffee Team
- Coffee
StoneX: We open markets
Our market expertise, advanced platforms, global reach, culture of full transparency and commitment to our clients’ success all set us apart in the financial marketplace.
Reach
With access to 40+ derivatives exchanges, 180+ foreign exchange markets, nearly every global securities marketplace and numerous bilateral liquidity venues, StoneX’s digital network and deep relationships can take clients anywhere they want to go.
Transparency
As a publicly traded company meeting the highest standards of regulatory compliance in the markets we serve, our financials and track record are matters of public record. StoneX’s commitment to “doing the right thing over the easy thing” sets us apart in the industry and helps us build respect, client trust and new partnerships.
Expertise
From our proprietary Market Intelligence platform to “boots-on-the-ground” expertise from award-winning traders and professionals, we connect our clients directly to actionable insights they can use to make more informed decisions and achieve their goals in the global markets.