Coffee Shipments Slow from Vietnam and Brazil Amid Tet and Carnival Disruptions

By: Alexis Rubinstein, Managing Editor - Coffee Network

Wed, 18 Feb 2026, 14:49

CoffeeNetwork (New York) - Global coffee supply chains are facing early‑year bottlenecks as major producing countries Vietnam and Brazil enter their respective holiday seasons—Tet in Vietnam and Carnival in Brazil—both of which are slowing exports and tightening short‑term supply for key buyers.

Vietnam—accounting for roughly 17–18% of global coffee production and the world’s largest robusta exporter—enters a predictable yet impactful shipment slowdown each year around Tet, the country’s most significant national holiday.

The Tet holiday period in 2026 officially spans February 17–21, but production and logistics disruptions stretch well beyond these dates. Most factories begin shutting down as early as February 12, and many do not return to full strength until early March, according to manufacturing and logistics analyses. During this window, factories stop accepting new purchase order approvals in early February, staffing levels drop significantly, especially in the week leading up to Tet and ports experience congestion, reduced vessel options, and slower customs processing, resulting in delayed shipments and rolled bookings.

The slowdown comes amid strong production expectations. Vietnam’s 2025/26 crop is projected to rise modestly, but logistical bottlenecks during Tet limit how much of that crop reaches export channels during February. This seasonal constraint is predictable, but for international buyers relying on steady robusta flows, Tet remains one of the tightest periods of the year for Vietnamese shipments.

Brazil, the world’s largest coffee producer, enters its own annual slowdown during Carnival—yet this year, exports were already sharply lower before the festivities began.

Brazil exported 2.78 million 60‑kg bags in January 2026, down 30.8% from the previous year, according to data from Cecafé. Revenue fell 11.7% amid weaker international prices and expectations of a strong 2026/27 crop, which cooled interest from buyers and encouraged producers to hold stocks.

Although not explicitly cited in the export data, Brazil’s Carnival period traditionally slows trucking, port staffing, and container movements—conditions that exacerbate any existing declines. This year’s Carnival hits at a time when Arabica stocks remain limited in the off‑season, producers are well‑capitalized and disincentivized to sell at current prices and domestic demand for robusta/conilon is absorbing more beans, reducing export availability.

The combined effect is a tighter-than-usual supply environment during February, especially for Arabica shipments.

Together, Tet and Carnival squeeze coffee flows from the two largest producing nations—Vietnam for robusta and Brazil for arabica—effectively constraining both ends of the global market simultaneously.

Vietnam’s shipment pace typically normalizes by early March, once factories and port operations return to full capacity.

Brazil’s export volumes are expected to recover starting May for robusta and July for arabica, as the 2026/27 harvest arrives.

These upcoming harvest improvements are likely to ease supply tightness later in the year, but for February and early March, importers—particularly in Europe and the U.S.—may see stretched lead times, reduced availability, and firmer differentials.

Tet and Carnival are recurring seasonal disruptors, but in 2026 the impact is magnified by pre-existing pressures: high volatility, lower Brazilian shipments, and port congestion in both countries. For roasters and traders, February remains a critical month to pre‑book shipments, diversify origins, and anticipate logistics delays—especially for Vietnamese robusta and Brazilian arabica.

Alexis Rubinstein

Coffee

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