Coffee Weekly Report

By: StoneX Intelligence Brazil, StoneX Intelligence Brazil

Mon, 27 May 2024, 21:00

Coffee futures prices rise again

Fernando Maximiliano

A scenario of reduced supplies of Robusta coffee and the resumption of fund activity supported coffee prices last week

Highlights

•   Arabica coffee rose 5.6% on the week in New York, closing at US₵ 218.25/lb
•   On the London exchange, Robusta coffee prices climbed 10.6% to USD 3892/t
•   Dollar up 1.2% to USDBRL 5.17 for the week
•   Cepea indicator for Arabica coffee rises 6.8% to BRL 1234.07/bag
•   Cepea indicator for Robusta coffee up 10% to BRL 1075.79/bag
•   Return of funds supported the advance in prices
•   Industry company projects Vietnamese production at 24 million bags
•   Logistics costs continue to rise amid conflict in the Middle East
•   Conab adjusts its estimate by 1.3% to 58.8 million bags
•   USDA releases report for Colombia, Honduras, Peru and Nicaragua

Last week, coffee futures rose again amid a scenario of reduced supplies of Robusta and the return of funds, which showed a greater appetite for coffee contracts. In addition, last week Volcafe released its projections for Vietnam's production in 2024/25, indicating that the country's production is expected to fall to 24 million bags. In addition, Coffee Network, a StoneX group company, reported in an article that logistics costs continue to rise amid the crisis in the Middle East, and that the increase in freight prices in the region has been one of the factors supporting quotes in London, given that this issue has an impact on the logistics of coffee originating in Asia.

In New York, the most active contract, for July, ended the week up 1165 points (+5.6%), closing Friday (24) at US₵ 218.25/lb. In London, the contract expiring in July rose USD 374/t (+10.6%), closing Friday at USD 3892/t. The USDBRL pair was up by 1.2% to 5.17 and the dollar index by 0.3% to 104.65 points.

Weekly intraday (most active contract) - May 20 to May 24

Source: CommodityNetwork Traders' Pro. Design: StoneX.

On the Brazilian domestic market, prices followed the trend seen abroad and ended the period with a big rise. The Cepea indicator for Arabica coffee rose by 6.8%, closing Friday (24) at BRL 1234.07/bag. For Robusta coffee, the indicator rose even more intensely by more than 10%, once again trading above a BRL 1000 and closing Friday at BRL 1075.79/bag.

While a few weeks ago coffee futures prices retreated amid liquidation by speculative agents, last week was marked by the return of these operators to the coffee market. The CFTC report showed that between May 14 and 21, funds in New York had increased their net long position by more than 1370 contracts. In London, the COT report showed that funds increased their long position by more than 1,700 contracts in the same period. In the aforementioned period, prices rose by 1640 points (+8.1%) in New York and by USD 240/t (+7%) in London.

From the point of view of fundamentals, the Robusta coffee market continues to be the protagonist in the international coffee market. The problems related to production and the limited supply of the variety in Asia continue to be the main bullish factors. As mentioned, Volcafe released its estimate for Vietnamese production in 2024/25 of 24 million bags, substantially lower than the 2023/24 season, estimated by the USDA at 27.5 million bags. The USDA has not yet released its attaché report for Vietnam this year, but as the estimates for several countries have already been made available, the Department's updates and projections should be released in the coming days or weeks. Further accentuating this scenario, the data indicates that logistics costs continue to rise amid the difficulties with transportation caused by the conflict in the Middle East.

In Brazil, Conab updated its estimate with a 1.3% increase in production compared to the previous estimate. According to Conab, Brazilian production is expected to total 58.8 million bags, an increase of 6.8% over last year's production. Brazilian Arabica production is estimated at 42.1 million bags (+8.2%) and Robusta output at 16.7 million bags (+3.3%). Conab's estimate is the lowest of all the projections for Brazilian coffee production. StoneX differs from Conab's projections, estimating Brazilian production at 67 million bags (4.2%), with 22.7 million being Robusta and 44.3 million Arabica.

Brazilian coffee production according to Conab (million bags)

image-20240527225441-2

Source: Conab. Design: StoneX.

USDA releases attaché reports for Colombia, Honduras, Peru and Nicaragua

For Colombia, the USDA increased its projection for the country's production in 2023/24 to 12.2 million bags (+6%). For 2024/25, the country's production should reach 12.4 million bags, representing an increase of 1.6% compared to the previous crop. For consumption, the agency projects an increase of 1.56% to 2.265 million bags. Total exports were estimated at 12 million bags, representing an increase of almost 1.9% in volume. On the other hand, the country's imports are expected to recover in 2024/25, rising 10.7% to 1.85 million bags. It is important to remember that among the producing countries, Colombia is an important importer of Brazilian coffee.

According to the USDA, Honduran coffee production is expected to remain stable in 2024/25, totaling 5.5 million bags. Domestic coffee consumption in the country should rise 7% to 410,000 bags and exports are expected to reach 5.3 million bags (+6%). As for Peru, the department projects a 6.8% increase in production, which should reach 4.22 million bags in 2024/25. According to the report, the increase is the result of high prices, which have encouraged producers to invest more in fertilizers. Consumption is expected to fall by 3.6% to 240,000 bags and the country's total exports are projected to reach 4.07 million bags (+6.4%).

In Nicaragua, the country's coffee production is expected to total 2.61 million bags in 2024/25, which represents an increase of 8.3% compared to the previous season. According to the report, coffee consumption in the country is set to remain unchanged at 160,000 bags. On the other hand, the country's total exports are estimated to rise by 9.3% to 2.46 million bags.

Considering the reports released so far (Colombia, Indonesia, Honduras, Guatemala, Peru, Mexico, Nicaragua, Costa Rica and El Salvador), the USDA reduced production in 2023/24 by 8.1% to 40.6 million bags. For 2024/25, the sum of these countries indicates an increase of 9.8% to 44.5 million bags. For exports, the department reduced the figure to 35.2 million bags (-9.5%) in 2023/24 and indicated an increase of 8.2% in 2024/25, to 38.1 million bags.

Table summarizing the USDA reports

image-20240527225739-3

Source: USDA. Design: StoneX.

INDICATORS

image-20240527225851-4

Sources: ICE/NY; ICE/EU; B3; Commodity Network Trader’s Pro.

Coffee

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