• Arabica coffee fell 2.1% on the New York exchange, quoted at US¢242.40/lb
• Robusta coffee prices fell 3.0% to USD 4,279/t on the London exchange
• The dollar rose 2.9% on the week, reaching USD/BRL 5.86
• On the domestic market, Arabica coffee rose by 1.1% and Robusta by 0.5%
• In October, prices fell 8.4% in New York and 16.4% in London
• On a monthly basis in Brazil, Arabica prices rose by 1.35%
• The Cepea indicator for Robusta fell by 4.07% in October
• Return of rains improves crop conditions in Brazil
• StoneX to release first estimate for 2025/26 crop
• ICO: world exports up 24.4% in September
• Luckin Coffee reported 41.4% increase in revenue in the last quarter
The onset of rains in Brazil, the start of the harvest in Vietnam and the release of robust export data put pressure on future coffee prices in New York and London during the week. The most active contract in New York, expiring in March/25, ended last Friday (01) with a weekly drop of 510 points (-2.1%), quoted at US¢242.40/lb. In London, the contract expiring in January fell by USD 132/t (-3.0%), closing Friday at USD 4279/t. In October, Arabica coffee prices fell by 2245 points (8.4%) and prices in London by USD 856/t (16.4%).
On the Brazilian domestic market, despite the decline on the international market, Arabica and Robusta coffee prices rose amid the 2.9% hike in the dollar during the week. The Cepea indicator for Arabica coffee rose by 1.1% and the indicator for Robusta by 0.5%. On a monthly basis, despite the significant falls on the international market, Arabica coffee prices rose by 1.35%. Robusta coffee fell by 4.07% in October, less than the 16.4% drop seen in London. The 6.2% rise in the dollar during the month helped maintain prices on the Brazilian domestic market.
According to the Weekly FX Outlook, “The Brazilian real weakened for the fifth week in a row, pressured by investors' high levels of pessimism and skepticism about the conduct of fiscal policy and the sustainability of public debt in Brazil, as well as by the global environment of risk aversion caused by the upcoming US presidential election, which remains fierce and unpredictable”.
Weekly intraday (most active contract) - Oct 28 to Nov 01

The recurrence of rains in Brazil has completely changed the condition of coffee plantations. The change in weather conditions has favored the flowering and development of the next crop in Brazil. However, the impact of the weather on part of the crops in August and September may have been irreversible, which calls for a thorough assessment of fruit set in the Arabica-growing regions. For Robusta coffee production, conditions were favorable for development in the states of Espírito Santo and Bahia. StoneX's field team has been visiting the plantations in recent months and a report describing the conditions of the plantations with the first estimate for 2025/26 will be released in the coming weeks.
The progress in world coffee exports has been bearish for future coffee prices. According to the International Coffee Organization (ICO), world coffee exports rose 24.4% in September, totaling 10.7 million bags exported in the month. A large part of this advance came from the almost 34% increase in Brazilian coffee exports, which exceeded 4.1 million bags (raw coffee). In addition to Brazil, exports increased in Indonesia - according to Indonesian government data, coffee exports from the island of Sumatra rose by more than 76% to over 269,000 bags in September. In the coming weeks, agents will focus on the release of export data from other countries, especially Brazil.
Last week, Chinese coffee chain Luckin Coffee released its results for the third quarter of 2024. According to the company's data, revenues rose 41.4% to over $1.4 billion year-on-year. The company opened 1382 new stores in the quarter, totaling 21343 stores in the country, with 13936 operated by the company and 7407 by partners. In addition, in the release the company stated that it is actively evaluating opportunities in the US and other markets. Starbucks is currently the largest coffee shop chain in the US, but reported in its latest earnings report that sales fell by 7% in the last quarter.
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