StoneX logo

Coffee Weekly Report

By: StoneX Intelligence Brazil, StoneX Intelligence Brazil

In addition to renewed rains, increased exports and a high dollar put pressure on prices
 
Fernando Maximiliano 
Coffee futures prices were impacted by the recurrence of rains in Brazil, the progress of the harvest in Vietnam, the increase in world coffee exports, and the significant rise in the dollar.
Highlights

•    Arabica coffee fell 2.1% on the New York exchange, quoted at US¢242.40/lb
•    Robusta coffee prices fell 3.0% to USD 4,279/t on the London exchange
•    The dollar rose 2.9% on the week, reaching USD/BRL 5.86
•    On the domestic market, Arabica coffee rose by 1.1% and Robusta by 0.5%
•    In October, prices fell 8.4% in New York and 16.4% in London
•    On a monthly basis in Brazil, Arabica prices rose by 1.35%
•    The Cepea indicator for Robusta fell by 4.07% in October
•    Return of rains improves crop conditions in Brazil
•   StoneX to release first estimate for 2025/26 crop
•    ICO: world exports up 24.4% in September
•    Luckin Coffee reported 41.4% increase in revenue in the last quarter

 

The onset of rains in Brazil, the start of the harvest in Vietnam and the release of robust export data put pressure on future coffee prices in New York and London during the week. The most active contract in New York, expiring in March/25, ended last Friday (01) with a weekly drop of 510 points (-2.1%), quoted at US¢242.40/lb. In London, the contract expiring in January fell by USD 132/t (-3.0%), closing Friday at USD 4279/t. In October, Arabica coffee prices fell by 2245 points (8.4%) and prices in London by USD 856/t (16.4%).

On the Brazilian domestic market, despite the decline on the international market, Arabica and Robusta coffee prices rose amid the 2.9% hike in the dollar during the week. The Cepea indicator for Arabica coffee rose by 1.1% and the indicator for Robusta by 0.5%. On a monthly basis, despite the significant falls on the international market, Arabica coffee prices rose by 1.35%. Robusta coffee fell by 4.07% in October, less than the 16.4% drop seen in London. The 6.2% rise in the dollar during the month helped maintain prices on the Brazilian domestic market.

According to the Weekly FX Outlook, “The Brazilian real weakened for the fifth week in a row, pressured by investors' high levels of pessimism and skepticism about the conduct of fiscal policy and the sustainability of public debt in Brazil, as well as by the global environment of risk aversion caused by the upcoming US presidential election, which remains fierce and unpredictable”.

Weekly intraday (most active contract) - Oct 28 to Nov 01

image-20241105111535-1
Source: CommodityNetwork Traders' Pro. Design: StoneX. 

The recurrence of rains in Brazil has completely changed the condition of coffee plantations. The change in weather conditions has favored the flowering and development of the next crop in Brazil. However, the impact of the weather on part of the crops in August and September may have been irreversible, which calls for a thorough assessment of fruit set in the Arabica-growing regions. For Robusta coffee production, conditions were favorable for development in the states of Espírito Santo and Bahia. StoneX's field team has been visiting the plantations in recent months and a report describing the conditions of the plantations with the first estimate for 2025/26 will be released in the coming weeks.  

The progress in world coffee exports has been bearish for future coffee prices. According to the International Coffee Organization (ICO), world coffee exports rose 24.4% in September, totaling 10.7 million bags exported in the month. A large part of this advance came from the almost 34% increase in Brazilian coffee exports, which exceeded 4.1 million bags (raw coffee). In addition to Brazil, exports increased in Indonesia - according to Indonesian government data, coffee exports from the island of Sumatra rose by more than 76% to over 269,000 bags in September. In the coming weeks, agents will focus on the release of export data from other countries, especially Brazil.  

Last week, Chinese coffee chain Luckin Coffee released its results for the third quarter of 2024. According to the company's data, revenues rose 41.4% to over $1.4 billion year-on-year. The company opened 1382 new stores in the quarter, totaling 21343 stores in the country, with 13936 operated by the company and 7407 by partners. In addition, in the release the company stated that it is actively evaluating opportunities in the US and other markets. Starbucks is currently the largest coffee shop chain in the US, but reported in its latest earnings report that sales fell by 7% in the last quarter.  
 

INDICATORS

image-20241105111140-2

Sources: ICE/NY; ICE/EU; B3; Commodity Network Trader’s Pro.

 

 

  • Coffee

The StoneX Group Inc. group of companies provides financial services worldwide through its subsidiaries, including physical commodities, securities, exchange-traded and over-the-counter derivatives, risk management, global payments and foreign exchange products in accordance with applicable law in the jurisdictions where services are provided. References to over-the-counter (“OTC”) products or swaps are made on behalf of StoneX Markets LLC (“SXM”), a member of the National Futures Association (“NFA”) and provisionally registered with the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (“CFTC”) as a swap dealer. SXM’s products are designed only for individuals or firms who qualify under CFTC rules as an ‘Eligible Contract Participant’ (“ECP”) and who have been accepted as customers of SXM. StoneX Financial Inc. (“SFI”) is a member of FINRA/NFA/SIPC and registered with the MSRB. SFI is registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (“SEC”) as a Broker-Dealer and with the CFTC as a Futures Commission Merchant and Commodity Trading Adviser. References to securities trading are made on behalf of the BD Division of SFI and are intended only for an audience of institutional clients as defined by FINRA Rule 4512(c). References to exchange-traded futures and options are made on behalf of the FCM Division of SFI . StoneX is a trading name of StoneX Financial Ltd (“SFL”). SFL is registered in England and Wales, Company No. 5616586. SFL is authorized and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority [FRN 446717] to provide to professional and eligible customers including: arrangement, execution and, where required, clearing derivative transactions in exchange traded futures and options. SFL is also authorised to engage in the arrangement and execution of transactions in certain OTC products, certain securities trading, precious metals trading and payment services to eligible customers. SFL is authorised & regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority under the Payment Services Regulations 2017 for the provision of payment services. SFL is a category 1 ring-dealing member of the London Metal Exchange. In addition SFL also engages in other physically delivered commodities business and other general business activities which are unregulated and not required to be authorised by the Financial Conduct Authority. StoneX Group Inc. acts as agent for SFL in New York with respect to its payments services business. StoneX APAC Pte. Ltd. acts as agent for SFL in Singapore with respect to its payments services business. ‘StoneX’ is the trade name used by StoneX Group Inc. and all its associated entities and subsidiaries.
 
Trading swaps and over-the-counter derivatives, exchange-traded derivatives and options and securities involves substantial risk and is not suitable for all investors. Past performance of any futures or option is not indicative of future success. Indicators are not a trading system and are not published as a specific trade recommendation. The information herein is not a recommendation to trade nor investment research or an offer to buy or sell any derivative or security. It does not take into account your particular investment objectives, financial situation or needs and does not create a binding obligation on any of the StoneX group of companies to enter into any transaction with you. You are advised to perform an independent investigation of any transaction to determine whether any transaction is suitable for you. No part of this material may be copied, photocopied or duplicated in any form by any means or redistributed without the prior written consent of StoneX Group Inc.
 
© 2026 StoneX Group Inc. All Rights Reserved.

Satellite view of Earth at night showing illuminated cities across Asia and the Middle East

Discover more insights

Our subscribers have access to comprehensive market analysis from StoneX spanning commodities, equities, currencies and more.

StoneX: We open markets

Our market expertise, advanced platforms, global reach, culture of full transparency and commitment to our clients’ success all set us apart in the financial marketplace.

Reach

With access to 40+ derivatives exchanges, 180+ foreign exchange markets, nearly every global securities marketplace and numerous bilateral liquidity venues, StoneX’s digital network and deep relationships can take clients anywhere they want to go.

Transparency

As a publicly traded company meeting the highest standards of regulatory compliance in the markets we serve, our financials and track record are matters of public record. StoneX’s commitment to “doing the right thing over the easy thing” sets us apart in the industry and helps us build respect, client trust and new partnerships.

Expertise

From our proprietary Market Intelligence platform to “boots-on-the-ground” expertise from award-winning traders and professionals, we connect our clients directly to actionable insights they can use to make more informed decisions and achieve their goals in the global markets.