Coffee Weekly Report

By: StoneX Intelligence Brazil, StoneX Intelligence Brazil

Fri, 22 Nov 2024, 19:38

Arabica Coffee Futures Surpass US¢ 300.00/lb, Reaching a 13-Year High

Fernando Maximiliano

Uncertainties regarding the EUDR, a 3.5-million bags cut in the USDA estimate for 2024/25, and expectations of a smaller harvest in 2025/26 supported the sharp price increase in New York

Summary

•   Arabica coffee rose 6.6%, reaching a 13-year high
•   Prices at this level were only seen in 1977, 1997, and 2011
•   Robusta coffee futures rose 4.4% to USD 4,985/ton
•   In Brazil, arabica and robusta coffee prices reached new record highs
•   The USDA reduced its production estimate for Brazil
•   The USDA estimate is close to StoneX's projection
•   The USDA updated its estimates for Colombia, Indonesia, and India
•   Coffee Network: The USDA is expected to lower its surplus projection for 2024/25

Futures prices for arabica and robusta coffee rose again this week, driven by concerns over the European Union's new deforestation law (EUDR), a 5% cut in the USDA production estimate for 2024/25, and the expectation of lower arabica production in Brazil in 2025/26, as presented in StoneX projections.

With a gain of 640 points (2.16%) on Friday (22), arabica coffee futures recorded an increase of 1,880 points (6.6%) for the week, surpassing the US¢ 300.00/lb level and closing at US¢ 302.10/lb, the highest in 13 years. Arabica coffee futures have only surpassed this level three times in the past 50 years: in 1977, 1997, and 2011. In the London terminal, prices also rose, ending the week up USD 212/ton (4.4%) at USD 4,985/ton.

Historic Arabica Coffee Prices in New York (US¢/lb)

Source: CommodityNetwork Traders’ Pro. Design: StoneX.

In the Brazilian domestic market, the scenario was similar. Additionally, the strong dollar helped boost prices locally. The Cepea indicator for arabica coffee recorded an 8.6% increase as of Thursday, reaching BRL 1,907.06/bag and setting a new all-time high. For robusta, the indicator also hit a record high but saw a more modest increase of 0.45% by Thursday, reaching BRL 1,595.89/bag.

From a fundamentals perspective, market participants remain focused on the development of the 2025/26 crop in Brazil, the harvest in Vietnam, Colombia, and Central America, and uncertainties related to the EUDR. Recently, the USDA's updated estimates for the 2024/25 Brazilian crop added upward pressure to prices.

The USDA's latest report cut its Brazilian production estimate by 3.5 million bags (-5%) for the 2024/25 season, from 69.9 to 66.4 million bags. With this adjustment, the USDA's estimate is closer to StoneX's forecast, which was revised in August. Initially, in February, StoneX projected production at 67 million bags but adjusted the figure to 65.9 million bags in early August after reducing its robusta production estimate by nearly 7% to 21.3 million bags.

USDA: Evolution of Brazilian Coffee Production (Million bags)

Source: USDA. Design: StoneX.

In addition to Brazil, the USDA updated its estimates for coffee production in Colombia, Indonesia, and India for 2024/25. According to the department, Colombian coffee production is expected to reach 12.9 million bags, 4% higher than the previous estimate and 1% higher than the previous season's output. In Indonesia, production is projected to grow by 30.7% to 10 million bags, though this is 8.3% lower than the previous estimate. In India, the USDA increased its estimate by 3.3% to 6.2 million bags, reflecting a 2.3% increase compared to the prior year.

Recently, Coffee Network published an analysis indicating that the USDA is likely to reduce the surplus in the global supply and demand balance, which will be released in December. Besides the estimates for the countries mentioned above, projections for Vietnam are still pending. Nevertheless, considering production cuts in Brazil and Indonesia, even with the increase in Colombia and India, the USDA is expected to lower its 2024/25 surplus projection, which was previously estimated at 5.6 million bags in June.

TABLE OF INDICATORS

Sources: ICE/NY; ICE/EU; B3; Commodity Network Trader’s Pro.

Coffee

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