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Coffee Weekly Report

By: StoneX Intelligence Brazil, StoneX Intelligence Brazil

Coffee futures prices rose again this week
 
Fernando Maximiliano
Coffee futures prices ended the week higher amid an unchanged scenario in terms of market fundamentals
Summary

•    Arabica futures rose 1.4% during the week, closing at US¢ 328.35/lb
•    In London, prices increased 0.8% to USD 5,006/ton
•    In the Brazilian domestic market, coffee prices also rose
•    The focus remains on weather conditions and crop estimates in Brazil
•    IBGE estimated the 2025/26 crop at 53.2 million bags
•    Brazil exported over 50.4 million bags of coffee in 2024
•    Export revenues totaled 67.47 billion BRL

 

Without changes in fundamentals, coffee futures prices ended the week higher, amidst a context of low liquidity due to high volatility and elevated price levels. In New York, the most active contract saw a gain of 450 points (1.4%), closing at US¢ 328.35/lb. In London, prices increased by USD 40/ton (0.8%) to USD 5,006/ton.

In the Brazilian domestic market, despite a 0.7% drop in the dollar, which was quoted at USDBRL 6.06 at the time this report was written, domestic prices ended the week higher. On Friday (17), arabica coffee prices were above BRL 2,300 per bag, while robusta offers exceeded BRL 2,000 per bag.

Weekly Intraday (most active contract) – 01/13 to 01/17

image 106851
Source: CommodityNetwork Traders’ Pro. Design: StoneX.

From a fundamental perspective, the scenario remains largely unchanged, with agents focusing on weather conditions and the productive potential of the next season in Brazil. Several companies and organizations are gathering information to develop their estimates. In the coming weeks, reports from these organizations will provide insights into production prospects for the 2025/26 crop. As mentioned in the previous edition of this report, inflation in coffee prices for consumers and its impact on consumption continue to be points of attention. Alongside the observed price increases, the industry is also expected to keep passing on these cost increases to end consumers.

Recently, IBGE released its latest estimate for the 2025/26 crop, projecting a 6.8% drop to 53.2 million bags. Arabica coffee production was estimated at 35.6 million bags (-5.1%) and robusta coffee production at 17.6 million bags (+0.4%). IBGE’s estimate falls at the lower end of the figures published so far. In November last year, StoneX estimated that Brazil’s arabica coffee production would decline by over 10% to 40 million bags, while robusta production would increase by almost 21% to 25.6 million bags. Like Conab, IBGE's projections have historically been underestimated when compared to the sum of exports and domestic consumption, which indicate a much higher production volume than the figures released by both government institutions.

Brazil exported more than 50.4 million bags of coffee in 2024

On Wednesday (15), Cecafé published its report on coffee exports for December, which totaled 3.8 million bags, representing an 8.1% drop compared to December 2023. Of these, 3.4 million bags were green coffee (-10.5%), including almost 563 thousand bags of robusta (+5.1%) and 2.84 million bags of arabica (-13.1%). Exports of processed coffee increased by over 19%, reaching 401.5 thousand bags. On the other hand, export revenues saw a 77% rise in the month, reaching 6.97 billion BRL.

Despite the December decline, Brazilian coffee exports hit a new record in 2024, rising 28.5% to over 50.44 million bags, a volume 12.8% higher than the previous record of 44.7 million bags in 2020. Exports of green coffee totaled 46.3 million bags (+30.2%), with 9.35 million robusta bags (+97.9%) and 36.94 million arabica bags (+19.8%).

Brazilian Coffee Exports Evolution (million bags)

image 106846

Source: Cecafé. Design: StoneX.

Processed coffee exports increased by 12.7%, reaching 4.14 million bags. Export revenues totaled 67.47 billion BRL, representing an almost 68% increase. The main destinations were the United States (+33.99%), Germany (+51.3%), Belgium (+96.4%), Italy (+24.9%), and Japan (-6.27%). Among producing countries, exports to Mexico (+141%) and Vietnam (+365%) were particularly noteworthy.

TABLE OF INDICATORSimage 106852

Sources: ICE/NY; ICE/EU; B3; Commodity Network Trader’s Pro.

 

 

  • Coffee

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