StoneX logo

Coffee Weekly Report

By: StoneX Intelligence Brazil, StoneX Intelligence Brazil

Coffee Futures Continue to Rise Amid Supply Concerns
 
Fernando Maximiliano
The market reacted to the prospect of a smaller harvest in Brazil in the next season and the decline in certified stocks of Arabica coffee
Summary

•    Arabica futures rose by 5.8% during the week, closing at US¢ 347.55/lb
•    In London, prices increased by 10.7% to USD 5544/ton
•    In the Brazilian domestic market, coffee prices also rose
•    Certified stocks of Arabica coffee declined over the week
•    A sharp drop in the dollar supported prices abroad
•    The outlook points to tight supply in Brazil in the first months of 2025

 

Futures prices for coffee continued to show significant increases, both in New York and London. In addition to concerns about supply for the upcoming season, market participants reacted to the decline in certified Arabica coffee stocks and the devaluation of the dollar, which tends to support price advances in the futures markets. Certified stocks of Arabica fell by more than 26,000 bags on Tuesday (21st) and by 7,500 bags on Thursday (23rd).

In New York, the March contract closed the week up by 1920 points (5.8%), ending Friday’s (21st) session at US¢ 347.55/lb. On the London exchange, robusta futures prices rose by USD 538/ton (10.7%), reaching USD 5544/ton. In Brazil, domestic prices also increased, with Arabica reaching nearly BRL 2,400.00/bag and robusta exceeding BRL 2,100.00/bag.

The dollar, which contributed to the appreciation of coffee prices abroad, experienced a sharp decline, reflecting a more favorable external environment. The market reacted to a softer-than-anticipated stance by Donald Trump regarding the imposition of tariff barriers, as he chose not to impose any import surcharges in his first week. This eased fears of a "tariff war" and supported the performance of risk assets, such as commodities and currencies from emerging economies. For more details, check out the Currencies section on StoneX's Market Intelligence portal.

Weekly Intraday (Most Active Contract) – January 20 to 24  

image 107157
Source: CommodityNetwork Traders’ Pro. 

Impacts on the Brazilian Domestic Market

In addition to movements abroad, the tight supply scenario is also impacting the Brazilian market, the world's second-largest coffee consumer, with nearly 22 million bags consumed annually. In recent years, the national industrial sector has operated with reduced stocks, adopting "Just in Time" management practices to minimize excess inventory. However, the industry will face challenges in sourcing coffee in 2025 due to reduced availability in the year's early months.

Lower production caused by climatic issues and the sharp increase in exports in 2024, which surpassed 50 million bags, have significantly reduced national stocks, worsening the situation. Robusta, in particular, raises greater concern, with 2024 production estimated by StoneX at 21.2 million bags (-1.6%). Additionally, exports of green robusta reached 9.35 million bags (+97.9%), while soluble coffee, primarily made from robusta, totaled 4.09 million bags (+13%).

Reflecting this scenario, robusta prices remain strong in the domestic market, surpassing BRL 2,100.00/bag. Furthermore, price differentials have advanced significantly, with prices paid to producers increasing from USD -40/ton at the start of the year to USD +500/ton last week, making Brazilian robusta substantially more expensive than prices on the London exchange.

This scenario is expected to stabilize with the arrival of the new crop, especially robusta, which promises significant growth. In November, StoneX estimated the robusta crop for the 2025/26 season at 25.6 million bags, an increase of nearly 21%. On the other hand, Arabica production is projected to fall by over 10%, with an estimate of 40 million bags. The next update on crop estimates is scheduled for March, following a new round of field data collection.  

TABLE OF INDICATORSimage 107158

Sources: ICE/NY; ICE/EU; B3; Commodity Network Trader’s Pro.

 

 

  • Coffee

The StoneX Group Inc. group of companies provides financial services worldwide through its subsidiaries, including physical commodities, securities, exchange-traded and over-the-counter derivatives, risk management, global payments and foreign exchange products in accordance with applicable law in the jurisdictions where services are provided. References to over-the-counter (“OTC”) products or swaps are made on behalf of StoneX Markets LLC (“SXM”), a member of the National Futures Association (“NFA”) and provisionally registered with the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (“CFTC”) as a swap dealer. SXM’s products are designed only for individuals or firms who qualify under CFTC rules as an ‘Eligible Contract Participant’ (“ECP”) and who have been accepted as customers of SXM. StoneX Financial Inc. (“SFI”) is a member of FINRA/NFA/SIPC and registered with the MSRB. SFI is registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (“SEC”) as a Broker-Dealer and with the CFTC as a Futures Commission Merchant and Commodity Trading Adviser. References to securities trading are made on behalf of the BD Division of SFI and are intended only for an audience of institutional clients as defined by FINRA Rule 4512(c). References to exchange-traded futures and options are made on behalf of the FCM Division of SFI . StoneX is a trading name of StoneX Financial Ltd (“SFL”). SFL is registered in England and Wales, Company No. 5616586. SFL is authorized and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority [FRN 446717] to provide to professional and eligible customers including: arrangement, execution and, where required, clearing derivative transactions in exchange traded futures and options. SFL is also authorised to engage in the arrangement and execution of transactions in certain OTC products, certain securities trading, precious metals trading and payment services to eligible customers. SFL is authorised & regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority under the Payment Services Regulations 2017 for the provision of payment services. SFL is a category 1 ring-dealing member of the London Metal Exchange. In addition SFL also engages in other physically delivered commodities business and other general business activities which are unregulated and not required to be authorised by the Financial Conduct Authority. StoneX Group Inc. acts as agent for SFL in New York with respect to its payments services business. StoneX APAC Pte. Ltd. acts as agent for SFL in Singapore with respect to its payments services business. ‘StoneX’ is the trade name used by StoneX Group Inc. and all its associated entities and subsidiaries.
 
Trading swaps and over-the-counter derivatives, exchange-traded derivatives and options and securities involves substantial risk and is not suitable for all investors. Past performance of any futures or option is not indicative of future success. Indicators are not a trading system and are not published as a specific trade recommendation. The information herein is not a recommendation to trade nor investment research or an offer to buy or sell any derivative or security. It does not take into account your particular investment objectives, financial situation or needs and does not create a binding obligation on any of the StoneX group of companies to enter into any transaction with you. You are advised to perform an independent investigation of any transaction to determine whether any transaction is suitable for you. No part of this material may be copied, photocopied or duplicated in any form by any means or redistributed without the prior written consent of StoneX Group Inc.
 
© 2026 StoneX Group Inc. All Rights Reserved.

Satellite view of Earth at night showing illuminated cities across Asia and the Middle East

Discover more insights

Our subscribers have access to comprehensive market analysis from StoneX spanning commodities, equities, currencies and more.

StoneX: We open markets

Our market expertise, advanced platforms, global reach, culture of full transparency and commitment to our clients’ success all set us apart in the financial marketplace.

Reach

With access to 40+ derivatives exchanges, 180+ foreign exchange markets, nearly every global securities marketplace and numerous bilateral liquidity venues, StoneX’s digital network and deep relationships can take clients anywhere they want to go.

Transparency

As a publicly traded company meeting the highest standards of regulatory compliance in the markets we serve, our financials and track record are matters of public record. StoneX’s commitment to “doing the right thing over the easy thing” sets us apart in the industry and helps us build respect, client trust and new partnerships.

Expertise

From our proprietary Market Intelligence platform to “boots-on-the-ground” expertise from award-winning traders and professionals, we connect our clients directly to actionable insights they can use to make more informed decisions and achieve their goals in the global markets.