• Arabica futures rose by 5.8% during the week, closing at US¢ 347.55/lb
• In London, prices increased by 10.7% to USD 5544/ton
• In the Brazilian domestic market, coffee prices also rose
• Certified stocks of Arabica coffee declined over the week
• A sharp drop in the dollar supported prices abroad
• The outlook points to tight supply in Brazil in the first months of 2025
Futures prices for coffee continued to show significant increases, both in New York and London. In addition to concerns about supply for the upcoming season, market participants reacted to the decline in certified Arabica coffee stocks and the devaluation of the dollar, which tends to support price advances in the futures markets. Certified stocks of Arabica fell by more than 26,000 bags on Tuesday (21st) and by 7,500 bags on Thursday (23rd).
In New York, the March contract closed the week up by 1920 points (5.8%), ending Friday’s (21st) session at US¢ 347.55/lb. On the London exchange, robusta futures prices rose by USD 538/ton (10.7%), reaching USD 5544/ton. In Brazil, domestic prices also increased, with Arabica reaching nearly BRL 2,400.00/bag and robusta exceeding BRL 2,100.00/bag.
The dollar, which contributed to the appreciation of coffee prices abroad, experienced a sharp decline, reflecting a more favorable external environment. The market reacted to a softer-than-anticipated stance by Donald Trump regarding the imposition of tariff barriers, as he chose not to impose any import surcharges in his first week. This eased fears of a "tariff war" and supported the performance of risk assets, such as commodities and currencies from emerging economies. For more details, check out the Currencies section on StoneX's Market Intelligence portal.
Weekly Intraday (Most Active Contract) – January 20 to 24

Impacts on the Brazilian Domestic Market
In addition to movements abroad, the tight supply scenario is also impacting the Brazilian market, the world's second-largest coffee consumer, with nearly 22 million bags consumed annually. In recent years, the national industrial sector has operated with reduced stocks, adopting "Just in Time" management practices to minimize excess inventory. However, the industry will face challenges in sourcing coffee in 2025 due to reduced availability in the year's early months.
Lower production caused by climatic issues and the sharp increase in exports in 2024, which surpassed 50 million bags, have significantly reduced national stocks, worsening the situation. Robusta, in particular, raises greater concern, with 2024 production estimated by StoneX at 21.2 million bags (-1.6%). Additionally, exports of green robusta reached 9.35 million bags (+97.9%), while soluble coffee, primarily made from robusta, totaled 4.09 million bags (+13%).
Reflecting this scenario, robusta prices remain strong in the domestic market, surpassing BRL 2,100.00/bag. Furthermore, price differentials have advanced significantly, with prices paid to producers increasing from USD -40/ton at the start of the year to USD +500/ton last week, making Brazilian robusta substantially more expensive than prices on the London exchange.
This scenario is expected to stabilize with the arrival of the new crop, especially robusta, which promises significant growth. In November, StoneX estimated the robusta crop for the 2025/26 season at 25.6 million bags, an increase of nearly 21%. On the other hand, Arabica production is projected to fall by over 10%, with an estimate of 40 million bags. The next update on crop estimates is scheduled for March, following a new round of field data collection.
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What we are reading:
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Colombian Local Coffee Prices Soar To Second Highest in History
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Conab Revises Down 2024 Coffee Crop Estimate to 54.2 Million Bags
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