By: StoneX Intelligence Brazil, StoneX Intelligence Brazil
• Arabica prices increased by 1510 points (9.75%) in NY, closing at US₵ 169,90/lb.
• Robusta prices advanced USD 109/t in London (5.6%) week to USD 2053/t.
• Cepea's Arabica indicator ended the week high by 5.9%, quoted at BRL 1,061.83/bag.
• Cepea's Robusta indicator increased by 2.7%, ending the week at BRL 687,74/bag.
• Certified stocks for Robusta dropped by 2.2% in the week.
• First estimates cool optimism with Brazilian production. ▲
• Conab estimates production at 54.9 million bags and 37.4 million bags of Arabica. ▲
• StoneX completes its Crop Tour and should release its estimates in the coming weeks.
• USDBRL drops in a steadier week. ▲
• Central banks' decisions worldwide and activity indicators should dictate movements in the next sessions.
• Strong foreign exchange inflow into Brazil favored the Brazilian currency. ▲
• Consumer coffee inflation ends 2022 higher in the US and Europe. ▼
• Rising energy commodities prices may continue to be a problem for eurozone roasters.
▼ Bearish factors ▲ Bullish factors
In recent weeks, future coffee prices have reacted to technical and macroeconomic factors, such as the future hedging of positions by speculative agents and the recovery of the Brazilian currency, and the adjustment in participants' expectations regarding the size of the Brazilian crop in 2023. Futures prices ended last Friday (27) with a weekly advance of 9,75% for the most active contract, Mar/23, which closed quoted at USD 169,90/lb, completing the sixth consecutive session with price appreciation.
In the wake of the moves in New York, Robusta coffee futures prices also showed a positive trend, completing on Friday (27) four consecutive sessions with gains, surpassing the level of USD 2000/t on Friday, when it closed quoted at USD 2053/t, having a weekly change of +5.6%. Robusta futures prices also reacted to the drop in certified stocks by 2.2% last week – since the beginning of the year, certified stocks of the type dropped by 3.2%.
Weekly Intraday (most active contract) - January 09 to 13
It is worth mentioning that the hedging of short positions by speculative agents also impacted the price movements. Last Friday's CFCT report showed that in New York, between January 17 and 24, actively managed funds reduced their short position by 3920 contracts to a net short position of 40020. In London, funds reduced their short position by 5539 contracts to a net short position of 6267. Despite the hedging observed, the funds' position in New York should be monitored, given that they have had a net position higher than the last 5-year average, which is almost 10,8 thousand contracts sold.
Managed Money position in futures and options in New York versus Arabica coffee futures prices
In Brazil, Arabica and Robusta coffee prices ended the week higher. The Cepea's Arabica indicator indicated a 5.9% increase in prices to BRL 1,061.83/bag. On the other hand, the indicator for Robusta coffee showed an increase of 2.7% on the week to BRL 687.74/bag.
As already discussed in other editions of this report, coffee players are keeping an eye on the prospects for Brazilian coffee production in 2023, analyzing any evidence that may suggest the possible size of the crop. Despite the La Niña, the water regime in Brazil presented favorable conditions for crop development given the abundant rainfall accumulated in recent months. This condition fueled optimism regarding the size of the Brazilian crop in 2023.
However, the release of the first reports and the reports of professionals familiar with Brazilian production has pointed to a not-so-large production, which cooled expectations and contributed to the recovery in coffee prices in recent weeks. In a recent disclosure, Conab presented its estimates for Brazilian production in 54.9 million bags, 37.4 million bags of Arabica and 17.5 million of Robusta. In addition, there are estimates from private companies ranging from just over 60 million bags to more than 75 million bags for the next crop. StoneX has completed the last stage of its Crop Tour in the coffee-producing areas and will release its results in the coming weeks.
In the coming weeks, agents' attention will continue to turn to the prospects for Brazilian production in 2023, with better definitions as new estimates are released. As part of such analysis, weather conditions remain on agents' radar. In addition, in the coming weeks, the export data of the countries and the import data of coffee in the US in December, which is expected to be released by the USDA on February 07, will also be monitored.
In a week of greater stability in the foreign exchange market, the USDBRL ended the period with a drop of 1.8% compared to the previous Friday, quoted at BRL 5.113. Year-to-date, the US currency accounts for a devaluation of 3.2%. The dollar index ended at 101.7 points, a slight decline of 0.1%, accumulating a drop of 1,5%.
A strong inflow of foreign funds into the country acted as one of the main supporting factors for the Brazilian currency. According to exchange flow data released last Wednesday (25) by the Central Bank, there was a net inflow of USD 666 million into the country in the week. More information and a detailed history can be checked through the interactive dashboard on the StoneX portal. The movement took the exchange rate to a low of BRL 5.081 in the week, its lowest value since the beginning of November 2022.
The indication that the cycle of adjustments in interest rates of the main global banks has been slowing and is nearing its end tends to increase the attraction for the highest returns on fixed-income assets in emerging markets, such as Brazil. Additionally, the higher-than-expected result for the United States Q4 GDP released last week, with the reopening of the Chinese economy and news of a significant drop in the number of severe cases of Covid-19 in the country are favorable to demand for commodities in general, benefiting the Brazilian currency.
This week will be marked by the monetary policy decisions of the central banks of England, the eurozone and the United States, along with activity indicators for the major global economies and US labor market data in January. For the Federal Reserve, with more than 98% of market bets waiting for an increase of 0.25 p.p., more than the decision itself, agents will be attentive both to the statement and at the press conference of Fed Chairman Jerome Powell in search of clues about the path that the US central bank intends to follow in its next meetings.
For Powell's speech, it is expected that the chairman continues to reinforce that the US interest rate should move towards a final level above 5.00% p.a. At the same time, most current market bets, although considerably dispersed, believe in a high of 5.00% with a retreat already in the last decision of the year. If Powell's statement and speech show that the Fed will not back down from its plans to keep interest rates high for a longer period, the dollar may undergo bullish corrections in the second half of the week.
In the last quarter of 2022, the coffee inflation to the final consumer in the main purchasing regions of the grain, namely the United States and Europe, added to other fundamentals, such as the return of rains and improvement in Brazilian exports, to add strong pressure to the prices of Arabica in New York. In January and December, inflation data in these areas were released, which allows us to take stock of the current price situation over the past year.
Starting with the Brazilian case, the prices of roasted and ground coffee to the Brazilian consumer, after reaching a peak in April, when accumulated in 12 months marked an advance of 67.5% in prices, began to register an intense drop in the pace of price growth, to reach December with a growth of 13.5% in the interval from January to December. Soluble coffee, on the other hand, ended the year with a growth of 18.76%, surpassing the high of roasted and ground coffee from November to December.
While the problem with strong growth in Brazil has been greatly alleviated, which should also be attributed to the reduction in prices seen in recent months, the problem in the United States and Europe still persists. The main buying and consuming regions managed to hold prices in much greater stability throughout 2021 when Brazil was already experiencing a strong rise.
Consumer roasted and ground coffee inflation accumulated in 12 months
The inflationary effects that were slow to arrive abroad now show no signs of cooling. Although accumulated inflation has oscillated between losses and gains monthly since August in the United States, advances have been more intense, leading the accumulated in 12 months to end at its highest level of the year, at 27.0%.
On the other hand, the eurozone made only advances in all months, ending 2022 with accumulated inflation of 11.8%, the highest level since the beginning of the historical series for the economic bloc in 2015. Due to the Russian-Ukraine war, the European bloc faced an energy and economic crisis throughout the year. Many European roasters depend on natural gas as an energy matrix. This commodity has undergone significant appreciation, which has compressed the margins of these companies and forced them to make greater cost transfers to the consumer.
Accordingly, consumer inflation should remain on the radar, still acting as a doubt to the prospects for global coffee consumption. The eurozone should be the most critical point to watch as long as the war and the risks of an economic recession in the bloc remain. It will also be important to note whether the new European Union sanctions on the import of oil products from Russia, which will begin to be imposed in February, will have a significant new effect on inflation in general and on the production costs of roasters, which may continue to force new transfers to the final consumer.
The StoneX Group Inc. group of companies provides financial services worldwide through its subsidiaries, including physical commodities, securities, exchange-traded and over-the-counter derivatives, risk management, global payments and foreign exchange products in accordance with applicable law in the jurisdictions where services are provided. References to over-the-counter (“OTC”) products or swaps are made on behalf of StoneX Markets LLC (“SXM”), a member of the National Futures Association (“NFA”) and provisionally registered with the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (“CFTC”) as a swap dealer. SXM’s products are designed only for individuals or firms who qualify under CFTC rules as an ‘Eligible Contract Participant’ (“ECP”) and who have been accepted as customers of SXM. StoneX Financial Inc. (“SFI”) is a member of FINRA/NFA/SIPC and registered with the MSRB. SFI is registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (“SEC”) as a Broker-Dealer and with the CFTC as a Futures Commission Merchant and Commodity Trading Adviser. References to securities trading are made on behalf of the BD Division of SFI and are intended only for an audience of institutional clients as defined by FINRA Rule 4512(c). References to exchange-traded futures and options are made on behalf of the FCM Division of SFI . StoneX is a trading name of StoneX Financial Ltd (“SFL”). SFL is registered in England and Wales, Company No. 5616586. SFL is authorized and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority [FRN 446717] to provide to professional and eligible customers including: arrangement, execution and, where required, clearing derivative transactions in exchange traded futures and options. SFL is also authorised to engage in the arrangement and execution of transactions in certain OTC products, certain securities trading, precious metals trading and payment services to eligible customers. SFL is authorised & regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority under the Payment Services Regulations 2017 for the provision of payment services. SFL is a category 1 ring-dealing member of the London Metal Exchange. In addition SFL also engages in other physically delivered commodities business and other general business activities which are unregulated and not required to be authorised by the Financial Conduct Authority. StoneX Group Inc. acts as agent for SFL in New York with respect to its payments services business. StoneX APAC Pte. Ltd. acts as agent for SFL in Singapore with respect to its payments services business. ‘StoneX’ is the trade name used by StoneX Group Inc. and all its associated entities and subsidiaries.
Trading swaps and over-the-counter derivatives, exchange-traded derivatives and options and securities involves substantial risk and is not suitable for all investors. Past performance of any futures or option is not indicative of future success. Indicators are not a trading system and are not published as a specific trade recommendation. The information herein is not a recommendation to trade nor investment research or an offer to buy or sell any derivative or security. It does not take into account your particular investment objectives, financial situation or needs and does not create a binding obligation on any of the StoneX group of companies to enter into any transaction with you. You are advised to perform an independent investigation of any transaction to determine whether any transaction is suitable for you. No part of this material may be copied, photocopied or duplicated in any form by any means or redistributed without the prior written consent of StoneX Group Inc.
© 2026 StoneX Group Inc. All Rights Reserved.
Our subscribers have access to comprehensive market analysis from StoneX spanning commodities, equities, currencies and more.
Brazil could still deliver a record arabica crop, but the bigger question for growers is what the next season holds. Out of season flowering and the swing of El Niño have put the spotlight on the rains still to come.
Daily coffee report
August 4 – The benchmark Dow Jones Industrial Average surged into the close yesterday to finish almost 700 points higher, at a record close of 53,178 points – easily clearing the previous top from almost a month ago. The S&P 500 is on the brink of its own record as well, while the NASDAQ index is short of June highs but working on a strong three-session rally. All three are pointing to positive openings today. Palantir (a U.S. software company) reported better-than-expected earnings yesterday afternoon post-close to boost the tech sector, though a host of other firms reported strong earnings as well. The ten-year note continues to retreat from Friday’s high, now at 4.67%, with the dollar on the high side of level-par, while the VIX index now under 16 shows reduced volatility.
Our market expertise, advanced platforms, global reach, culture of full transparency and commitment to our clients’ success all set us apart in the financial marketplace.
Reach
With access to 40+ derivatives exchanges, 180+ foreign exchange markets, nearly every global securities marketplace and numerous bilateral liquidity venues, StoneX’s digital network and deep relationships can take clients anywhere they want to go.
Transparency
As a publicly traded company meeting the highest standards of regulatory compliance in the markets we serve, our financials and track record are matters of public record. StoneX’s commitment to “doing the right thing over the easy thing” sets us apart in the industry and helps us build respect, client trust and new partnerships.
Expertise
From our proprietary Market Intelligence platform to “boots-on-the-ground” expertise from award-winning traders and professionals, we connect our clients directly to actionable insights they can use to make more informed decisions and achieve their goals in the global markets.
