By: StoneX Intelligence Brazil, StoneX Intelligence Brazil
• Arabica coffee quotes retreated 985 points (5,2%) in NY to US₵ 177.85/lb.
• Robusta futures advanced USD 11/t in London (0.5%) to USD 2162/t.
• Arabica and Robusta prices fell by 2.4% and 1.0% in the domestic market.
• Preliminary export data in Brazil indicate a 40% drop in February. ▼
• ICO: World coffee exports dropped by 14% in January. ▼
• Indicators point to a potentially weakened or below-potential consumption. ▼
• ABIC: coffee consumption fell by 1% in Brazil in 2022. ▼
• Inflation in consumer coffee prices accumulated an increase of 35.4% in 2022.
• Robusta coffee COT data were updated, but CFTC still lags with NY data.
• Reports revealed satisfactory results for industries amid economic adversities.▲
• USDBRL ends the week steady.
▼ Bearish factors ▲ Bullish factors
In the past week, Arabica coffee futures prices have retreated amid a corrective move linked to technical factors and agents' concerns about coffee demand. As has been discussed in other editions of this report, as the issues related to coffee production become clearer, agents' attention will turn to the prospects for coffee demand. One of the main highlights of the week was the release of preliminary export data in Brazil, which indicated a sharp drop in February, evidencing a possible weakening of demand for Brazilian coffee.
On the other hand, Robusta futures prices ended the week with slight gains in London. The Robusta coffee market has been supported by the prospect of a sharp drop in coffee production in Indonesia, the world's third-largest producer. As a result, the most active Arabica coffee contract in New York ended the week with losses of 985 points (5.2%), while the most active Robusta contract was up USD 11 /ton (0.5%). During this period, the dollar closed unchanged compared to the previous Friday (3).
Weekly Intraday (most active contract) - 02/27 to 03/03
In the wake of the moves in New York, Arabica and Robusta coffee prices ended the week lower in Brazil. The CEPEA indicator for Arabica coffee ended the week down by 2.4%, quoted at BRL 1.114,38/bag. Robusta prices ended the week down by 1.0%, with the CEPEA indicator closing Friday's session (03) at BRL 691.40/bag.
As anticipated, one of the reasons for the drop in Arabica coffee prices was concern about coffee demand in 2023. The week's main news was the release of preliminary export data by Secex, which pointed to a volume of coffee exported in February around 2,04 million bags, representing a drop of more than 40%. Although this is not yet the official Cecafé's, the data raise doubts about the world demand for Brazilian coffee, given that exports in January fell by more than 18%. These data align with what has been released by the International Coffee Organization (ICO), which pointed to a drop of 14% in exports in January to 9.7 million bags.
Monthly coffee exports from Brazil (million bags)
Coffee demand is a central theme, as several indicators have pointed to potentially weakened or below-potential consumption. The US import data, for example, shows a 3.2% advance in imports in 2022 but is still 4.3% below that observed in 2019 – lower than the time before the Covid-19 pandemic impacts. Moreover, when we analyze the situation of the estimated demand at ports, an index that considers the volume of imported coffee and stocks at ports, we observe that this indicator had an increase of 1% in 2022. However, it is still 4% below 2019.
Coffee consumption trend in Brazil (million bags)
Still, regarding consumption, ABIC released coffee consumption data in 2022 in Brazil last week, which is the producer's second largest consumer worldwide. ABIC data show a 1.12% decline in roasted and ground coffee consumption but a 1.36% advance for instant coffee, resulting in a drop in total coffee consumption of 1.01% in 2022 to 21.3 million bags. The main reason behind the reduction in consumption of the drink was strong price inflation; in 2022, while sugar prices fell by 8%, milk, rice and bean prices had inflation of 20.7%, 4% and 22.5%, respectively, with coffee prices registering inflation of 35.4%. Asked about the prospects for 2023 during the data release event, the president of ABIC stressed that, despite the scenario of uncertainties, there were no prospects for a reduction in coffee prices.
Variation in prices of products from the basic food basket to the consumer
Additionally, in the last two weeks, several coffee companies have released the latest results of their operations. The companies generally showed satisfactory results amid the economic adversities presented in the last year. However, the significant price increases carried out by all companies, as a result of the acceleration of operating costs and inputs, stood out.
CFTC/COT report update: as noted by the CFTC itself, the release of the report with the commitment of traders has been postponed due to a cyber incident. Data on the robusta coffee market in London has been restored. However, information regarding the Arabica coffee market in New York is still delayed, with the latest update available only for 02/07/2023. Access the latest data on the CFTC/COT interactive report.
The StoneX Group Inc. group of companies provides financial services worldwide through its subsidiaries, including physical commodities, securities, exchange-traded and over-the-counter derivatives, risk management, global payments and foreign exchange products in accordance with applicable law in the jurisdictions where services are provided. References to over-the-counter (“OTC”) products or swaps are made on behalf of StoneX Markets LLC (“SXM”), a member of the National Futures Association (“NFA”) and provisionally registered with the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (“CFTC”) as a swap dealer. SXM’s products are designed only for individuals or firms who qualify under CFTC rules as an ‘Eligible Contract Participant’ (“ECP”) and who have been accepted as customers of SXM. StoneX Financial Inc. (“SFI”) is a member of FINRA/NFA/SIPC and registered with the MSRB. SFI is registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (“SEC”) as a Broker-Dealer and with the CFTC as a Futures Commission Merchant and Commodity Trading Adviser. References to securities trading are made on behalf of the BD Division of SFI and are intended only for an audience of institutional clients as defined by FINRA Rule 4512(c). References to exchange-traded futures and options are made on behalf of the FCM Division of SFI . StoneX is a trading name of StoneX Financial Ltd (“SFL”). SFL is registered in England and Wales, Company No. 5616586. SFL is authorized and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority [FRN 446717] to provide to professional and eligible customers including: arrangement, execution and, where required, clearing derivative transactions in exchange traded futures and options. SFL is also authorised to engage in the arrangement and execution of transactions in certain OTC products, certain securities trading, precious metals trading and payment services to eligible customers. SFL is authorised & regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority under the Payment Services Regulations 2017 for the provision of payment services. SFL is a category 1 ring-dealing member of the London Metal Exchange. In addition SFL also engages in other physically delivered commodities business and other general business activities which are unregulated and not required to be authorised by the Financial Conduct Authority. StoneX Group Inc. acts as agent for SFL in New York with respect to its payments services business. StoneX APAC Pte. Ltd. acts as agent for SFL in Singapore with respect to its payments services business. ‘StoneX’ is the trade name used by StoneX Group Inc. and all its associated entities and subsidiaries.
Trading swaps and over-the-counter derivatives, exchange-traded derivatives and options and securities involves substantial risk and is not suitable for all investors. Past performance of any futures or option is not indicative of future success. Indicators are not a trading system and are not published as a specific trade recommendation. The information herein is not a recommendation to trade nor investment research or an offer to buy or sell any derivative or security. It does not take into account your particular investment objectives, financial situation or needs and does not create a binding obligation on any of the StoneX group of companies to enter into any transaction with you. You are advised to perform an independent investigation of any transaction to determine whether any transaction is suitable for you. No part of this material may be copied, photocopied or duplicated in any form by any means or redistributed without the prior written consent of StoneX Group Inc.
© 2026 StoneX Group Inc. All Rights Reserved.
Our subscribers have access to comprehensive market analysis from StoneX spanning commodities, equities, currencies and more.
Brazil could still deliver a record arabica crop, but the bigger question for growers is what the next season holds. Out of season flowering and the swing of El Niño have put the spotlight on the rains still to come.
Daily coffee report
August 4 – The benchmark Dow Jones Industrial Average surged into the close yesterday to finish almost 700 points higher, at a record close of 53,178 points – easily clearing the previous top from almost a month ago. The S&P 500 is on the brink of its own record as well, while the NASDAQ index is short of June highs but working on a strong three-session rally. All three are pointing to positive openings today. Palantir (a U.S. software company) reported better-than-expected earnings yesterday afternoon post-close to boost the tech sector, though a host of other firms reported strong earnings as well. The ten-year note continues to retreat from Friday’s high, now at 4.67%, with the dollar on the high side of level-par, while the VIX index now under 16 shows reduced volatility.
Our market expertise, advanced platforms, global reach, culture of full transparency and commitment to our clients’ success all set us apart in the financial marketplace.
Reach
With access to 40+ derivatives exchanges, 180+ foreign exchange markets, nearly every global securities marketplace and numerous bilateral liquidity venues, StoneX’s digital network and deep relationships can take clients anywhere they want to go.
Transparency
As a publicly traded company meeting the highest standards of regulatory compliance in the markets we serve, our financials and track record are matters of public record. StoneX’s commitment to “doing the right thing over the easy thing” sets us apart in the industry and helps us build respect, client trust and new partnerships.
Expertise
From our proprietary Market Intelligence platform to “boots-on-the-ground” expertise from award-winning traders and professionals, we connect our clients directly to actionable insights they can use to make more informed decisions and achieve their goals in the global markets.
