Coffee Weekly Report

By: StoneX Intelligence Brazil, StoneX Intelligence Brazil

Mon, 20 Mar 2023, 18:40

Coffee futures end the week lower

Fernando Maximiliano

Leonardo Rossetti

Without major news in terms of fundamentals, coffee futures are under the greater influence of technical and macroeconomic factors.

HIGHLIGHTS

•   Arabica coffee futures down by 120 points (0.7%) in NY to US₵ 176.60/lb.
•   Robusta coffee futures down by USD 76/t in London (3.6%) to USD 2,064/t.
•   In Brazil, Arabica coffee prices increased by 1.9%, while Robusta retreated by 6.2%.
•   USDBRL ended the week high by 1.2%.
•   The market continues to be mainly influenced by technical and macroeconomic factors.
•   GCA stocks fell by 2.9% in February.
•   The USDA will release US import data for February on April 5.
•   Agents focus on monetary policy decisions in Brazil and the US.

Without much news from the fundamentals side, coffee futures were mostly impacted by technical and macroeconomic factors – for more details on foreign exchange and macroeconomics, read the FX Weekly Summary. Prices fell, and the volumes traded in the week were reduced, with the participation of speculative agents predominating. The devaluation of the Brazilian real during the week also contributed to pressure on coffee futures prices – the USDBRL appreciated by 1.2% on the week, closing at USDBRL 5.28 last Friday (17).

In New York, the most active contract decreased by 120 points (0.7%), closing the week quoted at US₵ 176,60/lb. Suffering from a sharper decline, the most active robusta contract ended the week lower by USD 76/t (3.6%), closing quoted at USD 2,064/t. According to market participants, over the past two weeks, the lack of trade flow has limited the robust market in London to act as an arbitrage tool with the Arabica market.

Weekly Intraday (most active contract) - March 13 to 17

Source: CommodityNetwork Traders' Pro. Design: StoneX.

Despite the drop in futures, Arabica coffee prices ended the week higher in the Brazilian domestic market, mainly supported by the rise in the dollar. The CEPEA indicator for Arabica coffee ended the week with an appreciation of 1.9%, quoted at BRL 1,113.46/bag. On the other hand, Robusta ended the week with sharp losses, with the indicator retreating 6.2% and closing Friday (17), quoted at BRL 610.32/bag. The proximity of the beginning of the harvest and the availability of Robusta coffee in the domestic market has pressured prices.

Coffee prices in Brazil | CEPEA (BRL/bag)

Source: Cepea. Design: StoneX.

On the fundamentals side, the coffee market will continue to pay attention to data that may indicate the trend of coffee consumption, such as stocks, exports, etc. New data will not be released until the end of the month and the beginning of next month. Meanwhile, the market will continue to react to technical and macroeconomic factors such as inflation, the dollar and concerns about a possible economic recession. Monetary policy decisions in Brazil and the US will be on the agents' focus – for more information, go to Economic Calendar.

Despite the drop in GCA stocks, there is uncertainty regarding the demand

According to data released by Green Coffee Association (GCA), coffee stocks at US ports totaled 6.105 million bags in February, representing a decrease of 159,900 bags (2.6%) from the previous month, but an increase of 339,600 bags (5.9%) from February of last year. Over the past five years, GCA stocks for February averaged 6.047 million bags.

Coffee stocks at American ports - GCA (million bags)

Source: GCA. Design: StoneX.

Despite the drop in GCA stocks, there has been much debate as to whether the drop has been enough to indicate a good pace of demand, given that world coffee exports have been retreating.

For January, GCA stocks had retreated by 112.8 thousand bags (1.8%) compared to the previous month. Brazilian exports had an annual drop of more than 18% and a reduction of 13% compared to the previous month, while imports from the US registered a monthly decline of 41.7 thousand bags (2.3%) - compared to January 2022, imports fell by 14.5%.

For February, the big question revolves around the fact that Brazil, the world's largest producer and exporter of coffee, presented a 35.8% reduction in total exports of green coffee, a drop of 16.2% compared to the previous month. According to Cecafé, between December and January, there was a drop of 114,400 bags (18%) in Brazilian exports destined for the USA. Between January and February, the retraction was 46.3 thousand bags (9%). Considering the annual variation, there was a 29.2% drop in accumulated exports (Jan and Feb) compared to the same period in 2022.

Brazilian exports to the US (thousand bags)

Source: Cecafé. Design: StoneX.

However, a full analysis of this condition will only be possible after the US import data is released, to consider the balance of what was imported and the change in GCA stocks in the month. The USDA will release US import data for February on April 5.

INDICATOR

Sources: ICE/NY; ICE/EU; B3; Commodity Network Trader’s Pro.

Coffee

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