By: StoneX Intelligence Brazil, StoneX Intelligence Brazil
• Arabica coffee futures advanced 265 points (1.5%) in NY to US₵ 179.25/lb.
• Robusta coffee futures prices advanced USD 125/t in London (6.1%) to USD 2189/t.
• Cepea: Arabica coffee advances 0.8% and Robusta 4.9%.
• Lower risk aversion allowed the return of financial flow to commodities ▲
• Change of tone in Fed statement pressured dollar quotes ▲
• Fed raises interest rates by 0.25 p.p., and the Brazilian Central Bank keeps rates at 13.75%.
• Fundamentals still focus on the outlook for demand.
• Trade is expected to pay attention to the USDA's outlook to be released in May and June.
• BCA director indicates coffee demand growth in the UK. ▲
• Trouble with the global financial system could generate new waves of risk aversion. ▼
• Speculators go net long ▲
• Quotes have traded sideways in March, signaling a break from strong trends.
▼ Bearish factors ▲ Bullish factors
Over the past week, Arabica coffee futures advanced 265 points (1.5%), closing Friday (24), quoted at US₵ 179.25/lb. Robusta advanced USD 125/t (6.1%) to USD 2189/t. Despite the advances in the week, there have been no major changes on the fundamentals side, which remains muted. Therefore, the week's movements had a greater influence from technical and macroeconomic factors. In addition, there was a small participation of commercial agents in the week.
Weekly Intraday (most active contract) | March 20 to 24
Easing concerns about the global banking system has allowed for a return of financial flow to the commodities complex. However, after the bankruptcy of the American banks Silvergate, SVB and Signature, and the problems of Credit Suisse in Switzerland, there was a movement of risk aversion, which negatively impacted the commodity complex.
In the past week, monetary policy decisions have been made in the central banks of the United States, Brazil, England and Switzerland. On Wednesday (22), the dollar ended the session lower, reflecting the expected end of the interest rate increase in the US. The Fed decided to raise the US interest rate by 0.25 p.p., moving to a range between 4.75% and 5.00% p.a. However, the change in tone of the statement released by the committee indicated that the cycle of growth in the benchmark rate might be nearing its end.
Bets on upcoming Federal Reserve interest rate decisions
Arabica prices ended the week higher in the Brazilian domestic market following the international market. The Cepea indicator for Arabica ended the week with an appreciation of 0.8%, quoted at BRL 1,122.44/bag. Robusta prices ended the week with significant gains, with the Cepea indicator advancing 4.9% and closing Friday's session (24) quoted at BRL 640.25/bag.
On the fundamentals side, concerns about coffee demand are still a central theme among agents. In the short term, export, import and stock data in the countries will be closely monitored - next week, export data for coffee in Colombia and Vietnam, among other countries, will be released. In the medium term, agents await the USDA report with its outlook for 2023/24. Usually, in the second half of May, but without a defined date, the USDA releases its reports from the attachés in producing countries. Then, in June, it will release its first estimate for coffee's global supply and demand balance.
Regarding demand, it is worth mentioning the interview granted by Paul Rooke, Executive Director of the British Coffee Association (BCA), to CoffeeNetwork, who commented on continued growth in coffee demand in the UK and stocks at a comfortable level. According to Paul, during the pandemic, there was a change in how coffee is consumed, with consumption at home gaining more ground.
With the small changes in fundamentals, the coffee market will continue to react to technical and macroeconomic factors. Despite the cooling of concerns about the health of the global financial system, especially after the purchase of Credit Suisse by UBS, this topic continues to be a point of attention, mainly from the point of view of risk aversion and investors' perspective on the world economy. In Brazil, the friction between government members and the central bank, and the disclosure of the new fiscal framework, will continue as the center of discussions. To follow the main indicators released this week, go to Economic Calendar.
The latest Commitment of Traders (COT) report released by the CFTC showed that spec funds entered liquidly bought territory on the New York Stock Exchange for the first time since mid-October last year. According to the latest update, the specs increased 3,152 lots long in futures and coffee options while reducing their short positions by 3,398, with the balance going from -2,527 to 4,023.
The result materializes a deconstruction movement of bearish bets by the funds, which left a position in January of almost 63,000 lots short and a net short balance of 44,000 lots. Moreover, during the period, there was a significant upturn in quotations, which advanced from US¢ 150.90/lb to end March 21 at US¢ 180.30/lb, as the market internalized the majority perspective that the 2023/24 coffee crop in Brazil should not come close to the records seen in 2020/21.
The current position of the funds reflects the market has become closer to an equilibrium in recent weeks, with prices trading more sideways in March, signaling the break of a strong trend, a dynamic that, once we have a better conception of production, should remain while the market searches for more concrete information about the performance of world coffee consumption.
The StoneX Group Inc. group of companies provides financial services worldwide through its subsidiaries, including physical commodities, securities, exchange-traded and over-the-counter derivatives, risk management, global payments and foreign exchange products in accordance with applicable law in the jurisdictions where services are provided. References to over-the-counter (“OTC”) products or swaps are made on behalf of StoneX Markets LLC (“SXM”), a member of the National Futures Association (“NFA”) and provisionally registered with the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (“CFTC”) as a swap dealer. SXM’s products are designed only for individuals or firms who qualify under CFTC rules as an ‘Eligible Contract Participant’ (“ECP”) and who have been accepted as customers of SXM. StoneX Financial Inc. (“SFI”) is a member of FINRA/NFA/SIPC and registered with the MSRB. SFI is registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (“SEC”) as a Broker-Dealer and with the CFTC as a Futures Commission Merchant and Commodity Trading Adviser. References to securities trading are made on behalf of the BD Division of SFI and are intended only for an audience of institutional clients as defined by FINRA Rule 4512(c). References to exchange-traded futures and options are made on behalf of the FCM Division of SFI . StoneX is a trading name of StoneX Financial Ltd (“SFL”). SFL is registered in England and Wales, Company No. 5616586. SFL is authorized and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority [FRN 446717] to provide to professional and eligible customers including: arrangement, execution and, where required, clearing derivative transactions in exchange traded futures and options. SFL is also authorised to engage in the arrangement and execution of transactions in certain OTC products, certain securities trading, precious metals trading and payment services to eligible customers. SFL is authorised & regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority under the Payment Services Regulations 2017 for the provision of payment services. SFL is a category 1 ring-dealing member of the London Metal Exchange. In addition SFL also engages in other physically delivered commodities business and other general business activities which are unregulated and not required to be authorised by the Financial Conduct Authority. StoneX Group Inc. acts as agent for SFL in New York with respect to its payments services business. StoneX APAC Pte. Ltd. acts as agent for SFL in Singapore with respect to its payments services business. ‘StoneX’ is the trade name used by StoneX Group Inc. and all its associated entities and subsidiaries.
Trading swaps and over-the-counter derivatives, exchange-traded derivatives and options and securities involves substantial risk and is not suitable for all investors. Past performance of any futures or option is not indicative of future success. Indicators are not a trading system and are not published as a specific trade recommendation. The information herein is not a recommendation to trade nor investment research or an offer to buy or sell any derivative or security. It does not take into account your particular investment objectives, financial situation or needs and does not create a binding obligation on any of the StoneX group of companies to enter into any transaction with you. You are advised to perform an independent investigation of any transaction to determine whether any transaction is suitable for you. No part of this material may be copied, photocopied or duplicated in any form by any means or redistributed without the prior written consent of StoneX Group Inc.
© 2026 StoneX Group Inc. All Rights Reserved.
Our subscribers have access to comprehensive market analysis from StoneX spanning commodities, equities, currencies and more.
Brazil could still deliver a record arabica crop, but the bigger question for growers is what the next season holds. Out of season flowering and the swing of El Niño have put the spotlight on the rains still to come.
Daily coffee report
August 4 – The benchmark Dow Jones Industrial Average surged into the close yesterday to finish almost 700 points higher, at a record close of 53,178 points – easily clearing the previous top from almost a month ago. The S&P 500 is on the brink of its own record as well, while the NASDAQ index is short of June highs but working on a strong three-session rally. All three are pointing to positive openings today. Palantir (a U.S. software company) reported better-than-expected earnings yesterday afternoon post-close to boost the tech sector, though a host of other firms reported strong earnings as well. The ten-year note continues to retreat from Friday’s high, now at 4.67%, with the dollar on the high side of level-par, while the VIX index now under 16 shows reduced volatility.
Our market expertise, advanced platforms, global reach, culture of full transparency and commitment to our clients’ success all set us apart in the financial marketplace.
Reach
With access to 40+ derivatives exchanges, 180+ foreign exchange markets, nearly every global securities marketplace and numerous bilateral liquidity venues, StoneX’s digital network and deep relationships can take clients anywhere they want to go.
Transparency
As a publicly traded company meeting the highest standards of regulatory compliance in the markets we serve, our financials and track record are matters of public record. StoneX’s commitment to “doing the right thing over the easy thing” sets us apart in the industry and helps us build respect, client trust and new partnerships.
Expertise
From our proprietary Market Intelligence platform to “boots-on-the-ground” expertise from award-winning traders and professionals, we connect our clients directly to actionable insights they can use to make more informed decisions and achieve their goals in the global markets.
