By: StoneX Intelligence Brazil, StoneX Intelligence Brazil
• Arabica futures end the week 2.9% lower.
• Robusta prices increased by USD 27/t (1.1%).
• Cepea indicator for Arabica fell 3%; Robusta rose 0.4%.
• USDBRL ended the week down 1.2% in Brazil but up 4% in Colombia.
• CFTC COT: New York funds reduce long position by 408 contracts.
• COT: funds in London extend their net long position to 39,789 contracts.
• Nestle's results showed an increase in revenue due to increased prices. ▼
• Dr. Pepper: results showed a 6.6% drop in the volume of coffee sold in the first quarter. ▼
• Tata Global grew 14% in the first quarter of 2023. ▲
• Luckin Coffee grew 84.5%, and 1137 increase in the number of stores. ▲
▼ Bearish factors ▲ Bullish factors
Access: El Niño and its possible impacts on world coffee production
Without major changes on the fundamentals side, Arabica futures decreased 550 points (-2.9%), closing the week at US₵ 185.95/lb. In London, the most active contract advanced USD 27/t (1.1%) to USD 2,409/t. While Arabica prices will show correction after advances in recent weeks, robusta prices were supported amid news of lower supply in Vietnam and Indonesia.
In the Brazilian domestic market, coffee prices ended the week with mixed results following moves abroad. The Cepea indicator for Arabica coffee ended the week at BRL 1,077.88/bag, posting a drop of 3% compared to the previous week. For Robusta coffee, the indicator showed an increase of only 0.4%, closing at BRL 668.11/bag. In the same period, the USDBRL fell 1,2% to BRL 4,99.
Weekly Intraday (most active contract) - April 24 to 28
The latest COT report released by the CFTC showed that funds had a net long position of 19,854 contracts on Tuesday (25/04), 408 contracts lower than that observed in the previous week. In that period, there was a drop of 1465 points in Arabica prices and 672 contracts in the total number of open interest.
On the other hand, in London, funds added 4,859 contracts to their net long position totaling 39,789 contracts. In the period, there was a strong reduction in the number of contracts by commercial players, -23.6 thousand long contracts and -17.04 thousand short contracts, which provided a drop of 26.25 thousand in the number of open contracts. In the period, Robusta coffee advanced by USD 40/t to USD 2,419/t.
In recent weeks, the extension of the long position of the funds has come in the wake of various technical and macroeconomic factors that have supported the increase in prices and the greater appetite of agents.
The condition of the funds at a fairly bought level opens up space for possible liquidation movements, which would contribute to pressure on future coffee prices. Of course, this scenario should be analyzed with coffee fundamentals and macroeconomic prospects.
Although there is no change in fundamentals, the demand for coffee remains a central theme and source of uncertainty. The recent disclosure of the results of companies linked to the sector indicated that, for some companies, the increase in sales in the first quarter of the year was mainly due to inflation in coffee prices, while the sales volume retreated.
The results released by Nestle for the first three months of 2023 show a growth of 9.3% in all segments of the company, with an increase of 9.8% linked to price inflation and a reduction of 0.5% in the indicator of real internal growth (RIG), which shows the impact of volume on sales. Considering the Nespresso follow-up, there was a growth of 2.9%, resulting in a 4% increase in prices but a 1.1% reduction in volume.
Data from the Keurig Dr. Pepper coffee segment in the United States showed a 1.3% drop in the first quarter of the year to USD 931 million, reflecting a 6.6% drop in volume, partially offset by a 5.3% increase in prices.
Results released by Tata Global showed that revenue advanced 14% compared to last year's quarter, mainly supported by 15% business growth in India. Data from Luckin Coffee showed an 84.5% increase to USD 646 million. In addition, the report shows that 1,137 Luckin Coffee stores were opened in the period, representing an increase of 13.8% compared to the previous quarter. Currently, Luckin Coffee has 9,351 stores, of which 6,310 are operated by the company itself and the rest by partners.
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