Colombia’s Second Rainy Season To Be The Strongest in 2022, Hit Coffee
Coffee Network (Bogota)- Colombia’s second rainy season mid-September through December will be stronger than the first rainy season, which will impact coffee production in 2023 and it will make harder to transport the beans collected during the country’s main coffee harvest.
In this second typical rainy season, there will probably be high rainfall, up to 50% above normal, in sectors of the Andean and Caribbean regions, with October being the wettest month in Colombia, according to the weather office Ideam.
Most models predict that sea surface temperatures will remain below normal at the La Niña threshold, until at least December 2022 and February 2023, according to the Institute of Hydrology, Meteorology and Environmental Studies. (Ideam), entity that integrates the National Environmental System (SINA), headed by the Ministry of Environment.
International models predict a continuation of La Niña during September-November 2022, with a probability of 86%. The ENSO-Neutral condition becomes the most likely category for January-March 2023, which means that neither El Niño nor La Niña would prevail, Ideam added.
Susana Muhamad, Minister of Environment and Sustainable Development, said yesterday that emergencies due to rains in Colombia is due to the environmental deterioration of the country, the disorder of some activities in the territories, such as deforestation.
“We must advance in social work and coordination in the regions, with the authorities, so that the country prepares itself for possible risks that lie ahead. The risk or threat maps are not being enough, they must be reinforced. The communities in the territory, in coordination with mayors, have the potential to generate prevention processes,” she said. “We must be prepared because these extreme events will not be the exception, but will continue to occur due to the climate crisis," Muhamad said.
The government authorities recommended mayors and inhabitants to continue monitoring the banks of the rivers that maintain high levels, and take preventive measures on days when extreme rains may occur. We call on the sectors to continue with the execution of prevention and care plans”, said Yolanda González Hernández, director of Ideam.
Javier Pava, director of the National Disaster Risk Management Unit (UNGRD), said 83 people in Colombia have died due to different events caused by the rains. "We are determined that this number does not continue to grow," he said.
The rainiest season has affected 454 municipalities. Of these, 131 municipalities have been declared in a state of public calamity, in 10 departments: Chocó, Bolívar, Córdoba, Cundinamarca, Huila, Meta, Norte de Santander, Risaralda, Valle del Cauca and Antioquia.
Colombia's coffee production in the 12-month period September 2021-August 2022 totaled 12.058 million bags of 60-kg, down 9% over the same period last year hit by torrential rainfall for the past 22 months, and production is likely to be lower as rains drag on.
Hydrological alerts
Before various national and regional media, the minister, and the director of Ideam reported that, in this month of September, the levels of the Magdalena and Cauca rivers are expected to maintain a rising trend, in the medium to high range.
However, conditions will persist for sudden level increases in direct tributaries to the Magdalena and Cauca, due to high rainfall in some basins throughout the Andean region; north of Huila (Ceibas, Páez and Bache rivers); south of Tolima (Saldaña river); in Cundinamarca (Bogotá, Sumapaz and Negro rivers); to the east of Boyacá (Lengupá and Chicamocha rivers); in Risaralda (Risaralda river); in Caldas (Chinchiná and Arma rivers)
“The projection indicates that these 131 municipalities that are in public calamity could triple, if those that are on red alert become events, damages, losses and victims. We have to make an effort with the departmental support and the determined support of the National Government, to take preventive actions so that this number does not increase”, he explained.
Landslides
Soils in unstable or hillside areas are also expected to increase their water saturation in September, which means that the threat of landslides will continue, with the aggravating circumstance that it may increase, mainly in sectors of the Pacific region including the provinces Chocó, Valle del Cauca, Cauca and Nariño.
Minambiente and the SINA recommend activating precautionary measures in large sectors of the Andean region, in Caldas, Risaralda, Quindío, Antioquia, Norte de Santander, Cundinamarca, Boyacá, Huila, Tolima and Santander; in the Caribbean region, in the foothills of the Sierra Nevada de Santa Marta, and in some areas of the Amazon and Llanero foothills, in Meta, Casanare, Putumayo and Caquetá.
