Colombia to Likely Miss 2021 Coffee Production Target: Survey
Coffee Network (Bogota) - Colombia’s coffee production in the calendar year is expected to average 13.3 million with the large majority of analysts interviewed seeing output below the 14 million target as torrential rains in late 2020 and early 2021 prevented flowering.
The Colombia’s coffee growers federation (FNC) has set a target of 14 million bags in the calendar year 2021, but to reach that goal, monthly coffee production would have to increase to 1.212 million bags of 60-kg for the rest of the months of 2021.
Colombia has been producing at a monthly rate of 1.143 million bags according to calculations of Coffee Network as the world’s third-largest coffee exporter yielded 9.150 million bags in January-August, according to the most recent figures published by FNC.
Yet, coffee production in the 12-month period October 2020-September 2021 totaled 12.79 million bags, far from the goal of 14 million bags. The 12-month period is considered the best gauge to predict the harvest.
A large international trader said they see production ranging between 12 and 13 million bags in the calendar year 2021, which is the lowest estimate among the sources interviewed.
“The blooms were effectively affected by excess rainfall in the indicated periods, which felt its effect in the central coffee zone and in the departments of Huila, Cauca, Tolima. It is worth noting that this cold front still remains in some areas of the country, causing flooding and damage to some roads. Clearly, the production estimates for this calendar year 2021 could be in the ranges of 12 to 13 million bags, “ he said.
However, some analysts said that the bulk of the 2021 harvest will yield in September-December, but other growers said the main coffee harvest will come sharply reduced because of the torrential rains in 2020-2021, which prevented the key flowering period to take place.
Colombia picks about 65% of its main harvest in the departments of Antioquia, Caldas, Risaralda, North of Valle del Cauca and some areas of Huila.
Juan Alvaro Arboleda, a large coffee grower in the province of Antioquia, said in the department’s southeast, growers are reporting a drop of as much as 50% in their harvest compared with the same period last year.
ASCAFE, an association that gathers some coffee cooperatives of the southern department of Cauca, including 17 cooperatives that gather ex combats, said their output is coming 40% reduced, said Ascafe’s general manager, Carlos Lopez.
“I agree that the blooms were greatly affected last year, and we could already foresee a significantly lower production this year. This case has been demonstrated in each of the municipalities of Cauca and Nariño,” Lopez said.
ASCAFE sells coffee to Illy Caffee and to an Australian buyer. “ I am strongly concerned because our export projections since 2019-2020 are far below what we have been able to collect. I believe there are 40% below,” he noted.
Record high coffee prices in Colombia is posing another challenge, which is competition from other buyers who are willing to obtain beans regardless of if the beans meet the quality criteria, relaxing coffee growers on the good coffee practices, he noted.
Guillermo Trujillo, a coffee analyst, former secretary to the coffee growers federation, and columnist about coffee, said coffee production would likely range between 13.3 million and 14 million bags, which is in line with the FNC’s range.
Trujillo said large coffee growers are raising alerts about low production as a tactic to unfulfill with deliveries of future coffee deliveries.
Although output at the world's top producer of high quality arabica beans is seen yielding around 13.65 million bags, high production costs, related to fertilizers are prompting coffee growers to also raise attention and alarms.
A coffee grower gets around 1.75 million Colombian pesos ($460) for two 125-kg bags of parchment while production costs are 900,000 pesos for an efficient grower, producers and exporters said.
Smuggled coffee
Smuggled coffee is likely entering from Ecuador and from Peru, which is either getting processed or gets reexported as Colombian coffee, a fact that analysts said it is difficult to measured.
The smuggled coffee is likely taping the shortfall of Colombian coffee, analysts said.
“We are certain that smuggled coffee is inflating the local production figures,” Lopez at Ascafe concluded.
By Diana Delgado
