By: Matt Simpson, Market Analyst
Futures positioning across metals and oil offers important clues for traders navigating gold, silver, copper and WTI crude oil. While the US dollar’s net-short exposure has reached its most bearish level since March 2021, positioning shifts beneath the surface suggest selective conviction returning to commodities.
Large speculators and managed funds have nudged exposure higher in precious metals, aggressively lifted copper net-longs, and covered shorts in crude oil. Here’s what the latest CFTC COT data reveals.
View more of Matt's analysis
Source: CFTC (COT), LSEG
Futures traders effectively increased their net-short exposure to the dollar by $2.3 billion to -$22.8 billion — their most bearish level since March 2021. Despite this, large speculators flipped to net-long exposure on the US Dollar Index.
Gold: Managed funds increased net-long exposure slightly by 3.9k contracts, while the weekly change among large speculators remained effectively flat.
Silver: Net-long exposure edged higher, rising by a combined 1.4k contracts across both groups of traders.
Copper: Large speculators increased net-long exposure at their fastest weekly pace since April 2024, adding 13.6k contracts.
Platinum: Net-long exposure remains low but rose to a four-week high of 3.4k contracts among managed funds.
Palladium: Traders remained marginally net-long by around 500 contracts.
WTI Crude Oil: Net-long exposure reached a 28-week high among large speculators.
Source: CFTC (COT), LSEG
I’ve doubled up on gold and silver this week as positioning remains broadly similar, but still warrants attention. Futures traders have been sceptical of the precious metals rally for months, with net-long exposure trending lower even as gold and silver prices surged.
Last week, net-long exposure among managed funds ticked higher, albeit marginally. Shorts declined in silver while longs edged higher in gold. It may be early days, but positioning hints at potential near-term upside — particularly with Trump’s tariffs back in focus.
Source: CFTC (COT), COMEX, LSEG
I noted last week that copper prices have remained elevated in recent weeks, despite printing a menacing shooting star candle four weeks ago. The fact that large specs and managed funds remain heavily net-long supports the view that the rally may resume. Note the spinning top doji just above $5.50 and another just below $6.00, both preceding last week’s bullish candle.
Large speculators increased their net-long exposure at their fastest weekly pace since April 2024, rising by 13.5k contracts. However, gross longs actually fell by 4.7k, with the 18.2k (-37.4%) drop in gross shorts doing the heavy lifting. With tariffs back in the headlines, the case for higher copper prices could strengthen further.
Source: CFTC (COT), COMEX, LSEG
The pullback in WTI crude oil over the past two weeks has been minor at best, with an inverted hammer candle signalling that bears were already losing momentum ahead of last week’s bullish outside candle. This keeps my bias for a move towards $72 intact, with $70 the next obvious pit stop for bulls.
As for positioning, there is a mild divergence beneath the surface. Net-long exposure rose to a 28-week high among large speculators, although the increase was driven primarily by short covering. Gross shorts fell by 22.7k contracts (-11.5%) to a 19-week low, while longs rose by just 903 contracts (0.2%).
Source: CFTC (COT), NYMEX, LSEG
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