CONAB Publishes Second Coffee Crop Survey, Raises Estimate to 66.7 Million Bags

By: Alexis Rubinstein, Managing Editor - Coffee Network

Fri, 22 May 2026, 12:52

CoffeeNetwork (New York) – CONAB has published their second survey of Brazil’s 2026 coffee crop, pegging total production at 66.7 million bags, an 18% increase compared to the previous cycle, and slightly higher then the first forecast of 66.2 million 60‑kg bags.

If the result is confirmed at the end of the cycle, this will be the highest ever recorded in the historical series of the National Supply Company (Conab), surpassing by 5.74% the harvest recorded in 2020, when 63.08 million bags were harvested.

The total area destined to coffee cultivation should also register an increase of 3.9%, reaching 2.34 million hectares, of which 1.94 million hectares in production and 401,700 hectares in formation.

The national average productivity of crops should also show a recovery of 13%, being forecast at 34.4 bags per hectare.

For Arabica, Conab forecasts a production of 45.8 million bags, a significant increase of 28% over the previous year and the third highest recorded in the historical series, behind only the results obtained in 2020 and 2018. The increase is explained by the positive effects of the current biennial cycle, which influences the larger area destined for production, combined with favorable weather conditions.

In the case of conilon, the expectation is that 20.9 million bags will be harvested, which represents an increase of 0.8% over the previous harvest. The growth is influenced by the larger area in production, projected at 388.22 thousand hectares, which compensates for the drop of 3.5% in the national average performance of conilon crops, estimated at 53.9 bags per hectare.

Production in the states – In Minas Gerais, the main coffee producer in the country and the state that registers the largest area destined for arabica, the production is estimated at 33.4 million bags, adding the two species, which represents an increase of 29.8% compared to the total volume produced in the previous harvest. The good result is justified by the positive biennial cycle combined with the better distribution of rainfall, especially in the months preceding flowering, in addition to the favorable weather until March, which provided good grain, factors that contribute to good productivity.

Conab also predicts an increase in production in the other main coffee-producing states. In Espírito Santo, the second largest producer, the estimate is for a 3% increase in production, which could reach 18 million bags. The positive result is justified by the high biennial cycle in the Arabica crops, which show a growth of 27.9% in productivity, with the expected production of 4.4 million bags. Conilon crops, on the other hand, should register a harvest of 13.6 million bags, a reduction of 4.2% compared to the previous year. This drop is explained by the high performance recorded in 2025, a situation that limited the production potential for the current season. In addition, the temperatures recorded throughout the conilon production cycle in the state of Espírito Santo were below average, which also affects the physiology of the plant, reflecting on the performance presented. Even so, the current productivity estimated by the state-owned company is the second highest in the historical series verified in Espírito Santo.

In Bahia, the climatic regularity, the greater investment of producers in management and the entry of new areas into production reflect a growth in the harvest of 5.9%, with the expectation of a total harvest of 4.7 million bags, of which 1.2 million bags of arabica and 3.5 million bags of conilon.

In São Paulo, a state where the cultivation is exclusive of arabica, an increase of 24.6% in production is expected, estimated at 5.9 million bags. In the case of Rondônia, the production is exclusive of conilon, and the expected harvest is 2.8 million bags, an increase of 19.4% compared to the volume obtained in the last harvest. The renewal of genetic material by more productive clonal plants, which has been occurring in the last harvests, combined with favorable climatic conditions since the beginning of the cycle, justify the observed increase.

Market – Brazil exported 11.5 million 60-kilogram bags of coffee from January to April 2026, which represents a drop of 22.5% compared to the same period last year, according to data from the Ministry of Development, Industry, Commerce and Services (MDIC). This reduction in Brazilian coffee exports in the first months of 2026 reflects the low level of domestic stocks. The limitation of production in previous years, combined with a heated export demand, influenced the reduction of domestic stocks. Even with the drop, the perspective is for a recovery of Brazilian coffee exports in the second half of the year, favored by the estimated growth of national production.

In the international market, the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) expects a 2% increase in world coffee production in the 2025/26 cycle, expected at 178.8 million 60-kilogram bags. Despite the increase in production, significant reductions in quotations are not expected due to the low level of the remaining stock from the previous cycle and also due to the expectation of a 1.3% growth in world demand for the grain, expected at 173.9 million bags.

Alexis Rubinstein

Coffee

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Daily Coffee Report 8/10/26

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StoneX Coffee TeamMon, 10 Aug 2026, 20:32

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