Corn Weekly Report

By: StoneX Intelligence Brazil, StoneX Intelligence Brazil

Mon, 03 Apr 2023, 17:04

Corn futures rise for third consecutive week, supported by USDA data

João Pedro Lopes

Export sales and lower-than-expected stocks in the US contributed to the rise. Argentine crop failure continues to provide support

Bearish drivers

Concerns about a possible recession;
Fears of a global crisis following the bankruptcy of US banks;
Favorable prospects for Brazilian production;
Increased corn area in the US.

Bullish drivers

Poor conditions of the Argentine grain crop;
New announcement of US corn sales to China;
Concern about the Black Sea grain export agreement;
Lower-than-expected stocks in the US.

Last week, corn futures rose higher in Chicago, with the contract expiring in May 2023 gaining 17.5 cents/bushel, an appreciation of 2.7% in the period, ending last Friday (31) quoted at 660.5 cents/bushel.

Intraday (15 min) - May/23 (CBOT)

Source: CME. Design: StoneX.

Source: CME. Design: StoneX.

US corn shipments show significant decline. According to the USDA export inspections report released on March 27, the US shipped 666,300 tonnes of corn in the week between March 17 and 23. This number represents a drop of 525,800 tonnes compared to that registered a week before and of 948,300 tonnes compared to shipments made in the same week of 2022. In addition, the volume registered in the week in question was below the lower limit of market estimates, which varied between 700,000 and 1.4 million tons. Cumulative shipments totaled 18.2 million tonnes, against 29 million in the same period last year.

Weekly ethanol production is practically stable, but stocks are down considerably. According to data released by the Energy Information Administration (EIA), US ethanol production increased to 1.003 million barrels per day in the week between March 18 and 24, 6,000 more than registered one week before and 1,000 below the five-year average for the same period. Ethanol stocks had a significant decline of 661,000 barrels, going from 26.19 million to 25.53 million barrels. Despite the decline, stocks remain above the five-year average for the same period (23.8 million barrels).

Another 630,800 tonnes of corn flash sales are announced. Last week, between March 27 and 30, the USDA announced 630,800 tonnes in corn flash sales, 518,000 to China and 112,800 to unknown destination. The number was relatively below sales released in recent weeks, but still contributed to the bullish movement seen in Chicago corn futures.

Even with a decrease in the weekly comparison, export sales exceed those recorded in the same week of 2022. In its export sales report, the USDA reported that US net sales for the 2022/23 crop totaled 1 million tonnes in the week ended March 23, 2.1 million tonnes less than a week earlier, but 400,000 tonnes higher than in the same week of 2022 and 83,000 more than the five-year average for the same period. With that, commitments rose to 36 million tonnes, against 53.7 million in the same period last year, that is, a difference of 17.7 million. One week before, this difference was 18.1 million tonnes.

US weekly export sales (000 tonnes)

Source: USDA. Design: StoneX.

On March 31, the long-awaited USDA Planting Intentions and Quarterly Stock Position Report was released. In the case of area, whose number was the USDA's first for the 2023/24 crop that was based on a survey with the producers, the Department brought a planted area of 37.23 million hectares, slightly above the figure released in the Agricultural Forum (36.83 million) and the average of market estimates (36.78 million). On the side of stocks, the Department pointed out that the country had 187.98 million tonnes of corn by March 1st, below the average of market estimates (189.75 million) and the level seen on March 1st, 2022 (197.06 million).

Argentine crop conditions deteriorate again. The Buenos Aires Cereales Exchange (BCBA) reported that 9% of Argentine cereal crops were in good/excellent condition on March 30, an increase of 4 points in the week, but 24 points the same week of 2022. Despite the improvement in crop conditions, driven by good rainfall in the Argentine agricultural region over the last two weeks, the BCBA continues to estimate the country's crop at 36 million tonnes.

SPOT PRICES (USD/60kg-bag)

Grains & Oilseeds

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