Corn Weekly Report

By: StoneX Intelligence Brazil, StoneX Intelligence Brazil

Tue, 02 May 2023, 16:41

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Corn futures end another week in the negative field in Chicago

João Pedro Lopes

joao.lopes@stonex.com

Favorable outlook for the Brazilian crop and slower US pace of shipments, sales cancellations pressure futures

Bearish drivers

Favorable prospects for Brazilian production;
Slower pace of US sales and shipment;
Cancelled US corn sales to China.

Bullish drivers

Concern involving the Black Sea grain export agreement, banned imports of Ukraine grains by some eastern European countries;
Concern about delayed planting in the US.

Last week, corn futures fell significantly in Chicago, with May/23 posting a 4.1% drop in the period, or 27.25 cents/bu, ending Friday (28) quoted at 636 cents/bu. More distant contracts also had significant declines. July/23 contracted by 4.9%, to 585 cents/bu, while September/23 fell by 4.3%, ending the week quoted at 528.75 cents/bu.

Intraday (15 min) - May/23 (CBOT)

Source: CME. Design: StoneX.

Source: CME. Design: StoneX.

US Export Inspection Report shows weak shipments. The USDA Export Inspection Report showed that the US shipped 914,000 tonnes of corn in the week ended April 20, 323,400 tonnes less than a week earlier and 269,000 above the same week last year. With this, the nation increased the deficit of accumulated shipments in relation to the 2021/22 season to 12.55 million tonnes (on April 13, the gap was 11.82 million). Until April 20, the US exported 22.4 million tonnes of corn.

US ethanol production and stocks retreat. According to data released by the Energy Information Administration (EIA), US ethanol production dropped to 967,000 barrels per day in the week between April 15 and 21, a contraction of 57,000 on a weekly basis, but 66,000 above the five-year average for the same period. Stocks also dropped to 24.31 million barrels, 987,000 barrels less than a week earlier.

Announcement of sales cancellations to China pressures prices. Last week, through its flash sales system, the USDA announced the cancellation of 550,000 tonnes to China, which would be delivered in 2022/23. The announcement was an important factor pressuring futures last week.

Deficit in export sales volume compared to last season widens once again. In its Export Sales Report, the USDA reported that US net sales totaled 400,000 tonnes for the week ended April 20, 87,500 tonnes higher than a week earlier, but 467,000 lower than the same period of 2022 and 431,000 below the five-year average. As a result, cumulative sales increased to 38.5 million tonnes, but the deficit compared to the 2021/22 season increased from 18.6 million to 19 million tonnes.

US weekly export sales (000 tonnes)

Source: USDA. Design: StoneX.

Grain export agreement through the Black Sea is still on the agents' radar. The continuity of the Black Sea grain export agreement remains in focus, but has not moved the market as much as in previous weeks. Over the last few weeks, Russia has made it clear that it is only interested in renewing the initiative if there is a significant reduction in sanctions against the country. In addition, Poland, Hungary and other eastern European countries intend to maintain the ban on grain imports from Ukraine until the end of 2023, as a way to protect local producers.

Positive outlook for the Brazilian crop puts pressure on the market. The expectation of a robust crop has increased the perspective of higher corn cereal availability and contributed to the contractions seen in the international market. On Tuesday (2), StoneX released the update of its grain crop estimate, strengthening this perspective. Regarding the first 2022/23 corn crop, StoneX kept its production estimate unchanged at 28.6 million tonnes. The 2nd crop received a positive adjustment to 100.8 million. As a result, total production increased to 131.6 million tonnes, a record for the country. Click to read.

SPOT PRICES (USD/60kg-bag)

Grains & Oilseeds

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Perspective: Morning Commentary for August 7

August 7 – The U.S. economy unexpectedly lost 23k jobs in July, dramatically below market expectations of an 80k increase and marking the worst Non-Farm Payrolls print since February. Furthermore, May and June were both revised sharply downward, with combined revisions showing 103k fewer jobs than previously reported. Outside of the healthcare sector, which added 22k jobs in July, the losses were very broad-based. Government payrolls saw the largest decline, shedding 53k jobs in July, the largest seen since October 2025, while June was revised down to show a loss of 10k jobs as well. The private sector at least saw growth, adding 30k jobs in July, now matching the month prior after it was revised down from the 49k initially reported, and substantially missing forecasts of 78k jobs being added. This is a sharp reversal in course from the largely better than expected U.S. labor data seen earlier this week.

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Perspective: Morning Commentary for August 6

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