Corn Declines Amid a Week Highlighted by Soybean Market Movements
- Bullish
- Global demand remains strong;
- USDA projects lower global stock levels for the 2025/26 crop;
- Strengthened US export performance;
- Boosted ethanol production in the US;
- Improved US-China trade relations.
- Bearish
- Increased planting for the 2025/26 crop in Brazil;
- Potentially record-breaking harvest in the US;
- Higher stock levels in the US.
CBOT
Corn futures closed last week trading at US¢437.50/bu for the March contract, a 1.5% decline. The contract faced some resistance at the US¢440/bu level after last week's gains and followed soybeans in a downward corrective trend.
Corn fundamentals remain strong on the demand side, with new sales and inspections exceeding market expectations. Export sales for the week ending October 2nd, released late, totaled 2.3 million tonnes. With the USDA’s efforts to publish delayed data following last month's US government shutdown, two additional export sales reports will be released this week: one tomorrow (Tuesday) and another on Friday.
Nevertheless, the ample supply from the large US harvest continues to drive a bearish trend for the time being. Market sentiment suggests the USDA may be overestimating productivity figures, which will continue to influence the market at least until January’s WASDE report, when the department typically makes more substantial revisions to its US grain production estimates.
Intraday (15 min) December 2025 Contract - CBOT
Source: CBOT. Design: StoneX.
Brazil
Corn prices in Brazil traded lower throughout the entire week. However, a sharp rise on Friday due to a depreciation of the Brazilian real allowed futures to close the week in a stable position.
Brazil’s first crop continues to show good development, easing concerns over potential corn shortages in the first half of 2026. Nonetheless, exports remained strong during the first week of November, supporting the outlook for 40 million tonnes of exports for the current crop year.
Intraday (15 min) January 2026 Contract - B3
Source: B3. Design: StoneX.
FX | USDBRL
The US dollar ended the week higher after a sharp depreciation of the Brazilian real during Friday’s session. Despite news that the US will reduce tariffs on Brazilian agricultural products—which would typically be bearish for exchange rates—the reduced liquidity in Brazil after a national holiday, combined with the global strength of the dollar, prompted a significant relative depreciation of the Brazilian currency.
Futures Contracts Traded on CBOT (US¢/bu)
Source: CME. Prepared by StoneX.
Futures Contracts Traded on B3 (R$/sc)
Source: B3. Prepared by StoneX.
Spot Prices in Brazil (USD/60kg bag)
Source: StoneX.
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