StoneX logo
Contact us

Corn Weekly Report

By: StoneX Intelligence Brazil, StoneX Intelligence Brazil

Add us as preferred source on Google

Banner Currencies

Corn declines on CBOT; USDBRL movement boosts futures on B3, closing the week higher; StoneX revises estimates for the 25/26 crop

  • Bullish
  • Strong global consumption;
  • Exports remain strong in the United States;
  • Smaller planted area expected in the U.S. for 2026;
  • Robust Brazilian consumption.
  • Bearish
  • Expansion of planted area in Brazil for 2025/26;
  • Record productivity in the U.S.;
  • Higher ending stocks in the United States;
  • Potential downward revision for U.S. corn consumption.

CBOT

Corn futures on CBOT ended last week with a slight decline. Despite bearish fundamentals, the weekly movement was less influenced by specifics of the corn market and more tied to the intensification of capital flows throughout the week. A notable highlight was the significant liquidation in the precious metals market, with sharp declines in gold and silver, which underwent a substantial correction last Friday.

The trigger for this drop, according to various analysts, was U.S. President Donald Trump’s nomination of Kevin Warth as the next Federal Reserve chairman. Warth’s previously rigid stance on inflation reduced fears of political intervention in the future direction of U.S. interest rates. This renewed confidence in sound monetary policy boosted trust in the strength of the U.S. dollar as the dominant currency, weakening one of the key factors supporting the rise of metal commodities in recent months.

Technical factors, however, kept the corn market steady within the US¢425/bu-US¢430/bu range. March 2026 contracts closed the week at US¢428.25/bu (-0.5%).

Intraday (15 min) March/26 contract - CBOT

image 126029

Source: CBOT. Prepared by: StoneX.

Ethanol | U.S.

Speaking in Clive, Iowa, U.S. President Donald Trump expressed his support for allowing year-round sales of gasoline with a 15% ethanol blend (E15).

The official explanation for restricting E15 sales during certain periods of the year (specifically between June 1 and September 15) stems from a regulation by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), aimed at preventing the sale of fuel with higher volatility levels to reduce smog, a specific type of air pollution. Alternative explanations suggest the measure is designed to favor the oil industry by promoting fuel with higher fossil content during peak light fuel consumption periods (driving season).

Trump’s announcement is significant for the corn market, as the robust harvests of recent years need a destination to balance the market. However, legislative progress on this issue will not immediately affect market dynamics, which is reflected in the lack of price movement following the president's statements. Expanding ethanol consumption in the U.S. would require adjustments at gas stations and fuel pump infrastructure, as well as increased corn distillation capacity—a prospect not currently on the horizon. Even if the announcement spurred plans to build new corn ethanol plants in the U.S., it would take time for them to become operational, limiting the immediate impact on domestic corn consumption.

Argentina

The Argentine harvest continues to deteriorate. Last week, crops rated good/excellent dropped to 46%. Although far below the 88% achieved in December, the harvest still appears better than last year, when only 28% of crops were in top developmental condition.

Several climate models indicate better-distributed rainfall over the coming weeks could improve the harvest. However, high temperatures are expected to persist, remaining a key concern.

Brazil

The Brazilian harvest is progressing well. Strong development of first-crop fields in Paraná and the MATOPIBA region contributed to a 2.3% upward revision in StoneX’s summer crop estimates, now projected at 26.6 million tonnes. For the second crop, while planting is still underway in key states, an increase in planted area in Pará and Tocantins more than offset downward revisions in Maranhão and Piauí, raising second-crop harvest expectations to 106.4 million tonnes.

Access the full report here.

In addition to a more positive balance due to the strong harvest expected this year, the continued strengthening of the Brazilian real against the U.S. dollar has kept domestic prices under pressure. At this point, low corn prices from the U.S. and Argentina in the export market have hindered the competitiveness of Brazilian corn internationally, further adding to short-term pressure in the domestic market.

Intraday (15 min) March/26 contract - B3

image 126030

Source: B3. Prepared by: StoneX.

Futures contracts traded on CBOT (US¢/bu)

image 126031

Source: CME. Prepared by: StoneX.

Futures contracts traded on B3 (R$/bag)

image 126032image-20250902142429-4

Source: B3. Prepared by: StoneX.

Spot prices in Brazil (USD/60 kg bag)

image 126033image-20250902142435-5

Source: StoneX.

INDICATORS 

 
  • Grains & Oilseeds

The StoneX Group Inc. group of companies provides financial services worldwide through its subsidiaries, including physical commodities, securities, exchange-traded and over-the-counter derivatives, risk management, global payments and foreign exchange products in accordance with applicable law in the jurisdictions where services are provided. References to over-the-counter (“OTC”) products or swaps are made on behalf of StoneX Markets LLC (“SXM”), a member of the National Futures Association (“NFA”) and provisionally registered with the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (“CFTC”) as a swap dealer. SXM’s products are designed only for individuals or firms who qualify under CFTC rules as an ‘Eligible Contract Participant’ (“ECP”) and who have been accepted as customers of SXM. StoneX Financial Inc. (“SFI”) is a member of FINRA/NFA/SIPC and registered with the MSRB. SFI is registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (“SEC”) as a Broker-Dealer and with the CFTC as a Futures Commission Merchant and Commodity Trading Adviser. References to securities trading are made on behalf of the BD Division of SFI and are intended only for an audience of institutional clients as defined by FINRA Rule 4512(c). References to exchange-traded futures and options are made on behalf of the FCM Division of SFI . StoneX is a trading name of StoneX Financial Ltd (“SFL”). SFL is registered in England and Wales, Company No. 5616586. SFL is authorized and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority [FRN 446717] to provide to professional and eligible customers including: arrangement, execution and, where required, clearing derivative transactions in exchange traded futures and options. SFL is also authorised to engage in the arrangement and execution of transactions in certain OTC products, certain securities trading, precious metals trading and payment services to eligible customers. SFL is authorised & regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority under the Payment Services Regulations 2017 for the provision of payment services. SFL is a category 1 ring-dealing member of the London Metal Exchange. In addition SFL also engages in other physically delivered commodities business and other general business activities which are unregulated and not required to be authorised by the Financial Conduct Authority. StoneX Group Inc. acts as agent for SFL in New York with respect to its payments services business. StoneX APAC Pte. Ltd. acts as agent for SFL in Singapore with respect to its payments services business. ‘StoneX’ is the trade name used by StoneX Group Inc. and all its associated entities and subsidiaries.
 
Trading swaps and over-the-counter derivatives, exchange-traded derivatives and options and securities involves substantial risk and is not suitable for all investors. Past performance of any futures or option is not indicative of future success. Indicators are not a trading system and are not published as a specific trade recommendation. The information herein is not a recommendation to trade nor investment research or an offer to buy or sell any derivative or security. It does not take into account your particular investment objectives, financial situation or needs and does not create a binding obligation on any of the StoneX group of companies to enter into any transaction with you. You are advised to perform an independent investigation of any transaction to determine whether any transaction is suitable for you. No part of this material may be copied, photocopied or duplicated in any form by any means or redistributed without the prior written consent of StoneX Group Inc.
 
© 2026 StoneX Group Inc. All Rights Reserved.

Satellite view of Earth at night showing illuminated cities across Asia and the Middle East

Discover more insights

Our subscribers have access to comprehensive market analysis from StoneX spanning commodities, equities, currencies and more.

Explore subscriptions

Related articles for Grains & Oilseeds

Perspective: Morning Commentary for August 7

August 7 – The U.S. economy unexpectedly lost 23k jobs in July, dramatically below market expectations of an 80k increase and marking the worst Non-Farm Payrolls print since February. Furthermore, May and June were both revised sharply downward, with combined revisions showing 103k fewer jobs than previously reported. Outside of the healthcare sector, which added 22k jobs in July, the losses were very broad-based. Government payrolls saw the largest decline, shedding 53k jobs in July, the largest seen since October 2025, while June was revised down to show a loss of 10k jobs as well. The private sector at least saw growth, adding 30k jobs in July, now matching the month prior after it was revised down from the 49k initially reported, and substantially missing forecasts of 78k jobs being added. This is a sharp reversal in course from the largely better than expected U.S. labor data seen earlier this week.

Mike Castle
Mike Castle
  • Grains & Oilseeds
  • Energy
  • Dairy
  • Renewable Fuels
  • Cocoa
  • Coffee
  • Cotton
  • Sugar
  • Meats & Livestock
  • Forest Products

Perspective: Mid-Day Commentary for August 6

August 6 – Stocks remain quietly mixed at midday as both the S&P 500 and Dow Jones remain just below their fresh all-time highs put in yesterday. This is allowing the VIX to cool to a four-week low below the 15.4 mark, reflecting the collective sigh of relief in the market amid largely better than expected U.S. economic data today. The dollar remains quietly in the green in its relatively tight range this week, trading at 99.9 at the time of writing. Treasuries remain elevated but have cooled from their recent peaks, with 30-year yields trading at 5.189%, 10-year yields trading at 4.647%, and 2-year yields trading at 4.229% at midday. Crude oil also remains quietly in the green, with nearby WTI up 2.3% on the day trading near $76.80 and nearby Brent up 2.4% on the day trading near $81.40. The ags remain mixed, with the wheat complex now squarely in the red while corn and soybeans cling to small gains, and the livestock complex largely pushes lower.

Mike Castle
Mike Castle
  • Grains & Oilseeds

Perspective: Morning Commentary for August 6

August 6 – This morning’s stronger-than-expected U.S. labor data offered markets some relief, reinforcing confidence in the economy while giving the Fed greater flexibility to raise rates should inflationary pressures reaccelerate in next week’s July data. Stock futures are pointing to a mixed open to start the day, with the tech-heavy Nasdaq showing the most weakness. The VIX has fallen notably from yesterday’s spike above 18.4 as it starts the day hovering just below the 16-mark. The dollar is quietly higher as it trades just above 99.8, holding in the tight range seen thus far this week as traders continue to digest data to shape expectations for the Fed’s next move, which we’ll dive into in more depth below. Long-term treasury yields have relaxed slightly from their recent spike, with 30-year yields starting the day trading just above 5.19%, while 10-year yields trade above 4.64%, and 2-year yields sit below 4.22%. Crude oil is modestly higher to start the session after sharp declines earlier in the week, with nearby WTI up 1.8% to trade at $76.40 and nearby Brent up 2.4% to trade at $81.40. Meanwhile, the ags are quietly mixed to start the day.

Mike Castle
Mike Castle
  • Grains & Oilseeds
  • Energy
  • Dairy
  • Renewable Fuels
  • Cocoa
  • Coffee
  • Cotton
  • Sugar
  • Meats & Livestock
  • Forest Products
Read more
StoneX: We open markets

Our market expertise, advanced platforms, global reach, culture of full transparency and commitment to our clients’ success all set us apart in the financial marketplace.

Reach

With access to 40+ derivatives exchanges, 180+ foreign exchange markets, nearly every global securities marketplace and numerous bilateral liquidity venues, StoneX’s digital network and deep relationships can take clients anywhere they want to go.

Transparency

As a publicly traded company meeting the highest standards of regulatory compliance in the markets we serve, our financials and track record are matters of public record. StoneX’s commitment to “doing the right thing over the easy thing” sets us apart in the industry and helps us build respect, client trust and new partnerships.

Expertise

From our proprietary Market Intelligence platform to “boots-on-the-ground” expertise from award-winning traders and professionals, we connect our clients directly to actionable insights they can use to make more informed decisions and achieve their goals in the global markets.