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Daily Coffee Report 3/17/26

By: StoneX Coffee Team, Softs Coffee Miami

Coffee futures extended yesterday’s gains, with Arabica flat price and structure leading the rally again, climbing enough to stimulate renewed origin selling on what became one of the most active shipper days in the past two weeks.

Beyond price-fixing of new purchases, traders also engaged in profit‑taking across both terminal markets, reflected in a notable increase in EFP (AA) activity:

1,278 lots of May26 Arabica EFPs
1,071 lots of May26 Robusta EFPs
255 lots of July26 Robusta EFPs
This in addition to a 3,005‑lot EFS was posted in July26 Arabica.

The May/July Arabica spread traded up to a 7.70 cent premium, the highest since January 28, before easing into the close to finish 25 points lower at a 6.40 premium. The Arabica July/Sep also firmed, reaching 10.15 premium, its strongest level since December 15. Total Arabica market volume was the highest recorded since February 11.

More CSOs traded today—some reflecting profit‑taking after the recent run‑up, and others adding fresh coverage in anticipation of a broader move higher:

Coffee “C” 1‑Month CSO – NYCC – May26 10.00/4.00 fence (to the call)
Paper sold the call down to flat, 500 lots.

Coffee “C” 1‑Month CSO – NYCC – May26 15.00/20.00 call spread
Paper bought 800 lots @ 0.75.

Robusta flat price and structure also moved higher, though the true test for origin selling interest is just above current market rate in the 3500–3600 basis July range.

After the close, Safras & Mercado released updated old/new crop sales figures – there is still a lot of coffee to be sold in Brazil:
Brazil 2025/26 coffee sales: 77% of expected output (vs. 93% a year ago)
Brazil 2026/27 coffee sales: 12% of expected output (vs. 13% a year ago)

In addition, a headline has been circulating late in the session regarding a potential nationwide trucker strike in Brazil toward the end of the week in response to rising diesel prices.

Coffeeorderdesk@stonex.com

Miami                                                London                                Brazil                           

305-925-4847                                  +44-203-580-6099            +55-34-3199-1550     

ICE Arabica

Source: Refinitiv 
Source: Refinitiv 
Source: Refinitiv

Volume:

59,985

ICE Robusta

Source: Refinitiv 
Source: Refinitiv 
Source: Refinitiv

Volume:

20,787

Brazil Arabica

Source: Refinitiv 
Source: Refinitiv

Volume:

380

Arabica-Brazil Arbitrage

Source: Refinitiv 

Arabica-Robusta Arbitrage

Source: Refinitiv 

Arabica Switches

Robusta Switches

Source: Refinitiv 
                             Source: Refinitiv 
  • Coffee

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