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Daily Natural Gas Market Update 1-17-24

By: Heather Wine, Senior Risk Manager - Energy

Daily Natural Gas Market Update
 
Heather Wine
Senior Risk Manager | (312) 373-8250
StoneX Financial Inc. - FCM Division
StoneX Value Matrix
image 87977
Source: StoneX Value Matrix, Bloomberg
StoneX Market Indicator
image 87974
Source:  StoneX Market Indicator, Bloomberg
Fundamentals & Weather

Spot month gas prices have sunk lower since Friday as the market looked past the current arctic cold blast to a warmer weather pattern expected to take hold next week.  The change to warmer weather should result in much lower demand and higher output later this month. Falling LNG flows have added further downside pressure.  The Feb contract fell 41.3 cents lower from Friday, settling yesterday at 2.90.   

image 87978
Source: Bloomberg, CME

The current cold pattern will continue through this weekend before giving way to much warmer conditions at the start of next week.  Above normal temps will be widespread with much and strong above normal readings dominating the Eastern US mid to late in the 6-10 day period.  The 6-10 day timeframe, Jan 22-Jan 26 will rank 3rd lowest for HDDs.  

Temps will turn even warmer across the Eastern half of the US during the 11-15 day period which takes us thru Jan 31. Much to strong above normal readings will favor the West, Midwest and East while the South averages above normal. 

image 87979
Source: Bloomberg, EIA

A larger than normal draw of 159 is expected for the week ended Jan 12.  The estimate compares to last year’s pull of just 68 BCF and the 5 yr avg draw of 126 BCF.  

Freeze offs and surging demand this week are expected to produce a withdrawal of 380 BCF for the week ending Jan 19.The current cold blast has hampered production levels by about 10 BCF/day from last week.  Steep cuts due to freeze offs left output at 91 BCF/day on Tuesday.  The Permian was hit hardest, falling to just 15.5 BCF/day.  

​​image 87980
Source: NOAA
Prices continue to reverse recent gains this morning as the weather pattern is set to flip back to a much warmer than normal one starting Jan 22. 
 
Technical Analysis
image 87981
Source: Bloomberg, CME

The February 24 contract has lost .413 (12.5%) over the past two days including a .206 (6.6%) loss on Tuesday as it closed the session at 2.900.

Two important areas of support were broken on Tuesday.  The first was the 10 day moving average at 3.015 followed by trend line support beginning at the mid-April 2023 low at the 2.920-2.930 level.

This turns the 40 day moving average currently at 2.720 followed by the 200 day average at 2.655 into the next areas of support.

A drop under the 200 day average would be a very bearish technical signal as the market heads into the February-March time frame.  Over the past 8 years, a post-winter low has been set in either February or March.

Former support at 2.920-2.930 is the 1st area of resistance today followed by the 10 day average at 3.015.

Moving Average Alignment – Neutral-Bullish 
Long Term Trend Following Index – Bullish
Short Term Trend Following Index – Bullish
Relative Strength Index – 48.38

Seasonal Prices
image 87987
Source: Bloomberg, CME
image 87985
Source: Bloomberg, CME
image 87986
Source: Bloomberg, CME
image 87887
Source: Bloomberg, CME
image 87886
Source: Bloomberg, CME
Forward Curve Pricing
image 87984
Source: Bloomberg, CME
 
Disclaimer

The StoneX Market Indicator provides an overall view of market sentiment for a commodity based on the quantification of fundamental, technical and historical market data related to that commodity.  Each factor is quantified by comparing data for the current period versus last year, versus the previous period, versus its history and versus the yearly average.  This quantification is converted to a number and summed together. The sum of all factors are reweighted by the 4-year decile of its history. The 4-year deciles redistribute the StoneX Market Indicator to obtain an equal share between the bullish and the bearish signals.  The StoneX Market Indicator History graphically represents each day’s actual very bearish to very bullish signal.  This history contains the sum of all factors, excluding weather forecasts.

The StoneX Value Matrix provides a measure of historical value by analyzing 4 years historical price data distributed into 10 deciles.  All of the years are weighted at 20% with the exception of the most recent year which is weighted at 40%. The prices are adjusted for inflation using the Producer Price Index (PPI).  

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