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Daily Natural Gas Market Update 1-22-24

By: Heather Wine, Senior Risk Manager - Energy

Daily Natural Gas Market Update
 
Heather Wine
Senior Risk Manager | (312) 373-8250
StoneX Financial Inc. - FCM Division
StoneX Value Matrix
image 88230
Source: StoneX Value Matrix, Bloomberg
StoneX Market Indicator
image-20240122094906-1
Source:  StoneX Market Indicator, Bloomberg
Fundamentals & Weather

Gas prices extended the downside on Friday with Feb futures falling to a 3 week low as forecasts provided further confirmation of a return to above normal readings over the coming week.  Warmer trends should persist longer than initially thought with the stretch of very warm weather continuing through at least the very beginning of Feb.  The Feb contract settled 17.8 cents lower at $2.519.  For the week, the spot month was down nearly 24%.  

image 88234
Source: Bloomberg, CME

Total demand is estimated this morning at 142.8 BCF/day.  This is nearly 16 BCF/day lower than Friday’s estimate of 160.1 BCF/day.  The majority of the fall is due to an 11.3 BCF/day drop in res/comm usage to 48.8 BCF/day, down from Friday’s level of 60.3 BCF/day.

Consumption will continue to plunge over the next 2 weeks as temps warm significantly.  Platts estimates demand over the next 7 days will average 122.9 BCF/day with their 8-14 day average estimate at 123.4 BCF/day.

image 88235
Source: Bloomberg, EIA

LNG feedgas demand has rebounded since falling below 10 BCF/day last week.  As of this morning, feedgas demand is estimated at 13.9 BCF/day.  Platts forecasts feedgas demand will average at precisely this level over the next 2 weeks.  

​​image 88236
Source: NOAA
Forecasts for an exceptionally warm start to February is helping further depress gas prices this morning.
The 11-15 day forecast from Maxar is now showing warmer trends will persist into the first 5 days of February. Widespread above normal temps are expected with much to strong above normal readings projected for a large portion of the Eastern US.  Cooler readings are limited to the West Coast and SW mid to late in the period. 
Technical Analysis
image 88237
Source: Bloomberg, CME

The spot February 22 natural gas contract closed down every single day in last week’s trade losing .793 (24%) over the course of the week to settle Friday at 2.519.

10, 40 and 200 day moving average support levels were broken last week turning the primary trend sideways to down.

The February contract has gapped lower today begin the new week of trade breaking out under the final 88% retracement support of the December-January uptrend at 2.375.

This turns the mid-December 2.235 low into the next area of support.  Longer term support is the 1.944 low set in March 2023.

Over the past 7 years, a post-winter seasonal low has been set during the months of February or March.

Moving Average Alignment – Neutral-Bearish 
Long Term Trend Following Index – Bullish
Short Term Trend Following Index – Bearish
Relative Strength Index – 37.51

Seasonal Prices
image 88240
Source: Bloomberg, CME
image 88238
Source: Bloomberg, CME
image 88239
Source: Bloomberg, CME
image 87887
Source: Bloomberg, CME
image 87886
Source: Bloomberg, CME
Forward Curve Pricing
image 88241
Source: Bloomberg, CME
 
Disclaimer

The StoneX Market Indicator provides an overall view of market sentiment for a commodity based on the quantification of fundamental, technical and historical market data related to that commodity.  Each factor is quantified by comparing data for the current period versus last year, versus the previous period, versus its history and versus the yearly average.  This quantification is converted to a number and summed together. The sum of all factors are reweighted by the 4-year decile of its history. The 4-year deciles redistribute the StoneX Market Indicator to obtain an equal share between the bullish and the bearish signals.  The StoneX Market Indicator History graphically represents each day’s actual very bearish to very bullish signal.  This history contains the sum of all factors, excluding weather forecasts.

The StoneX Value Matrix provides a measure of historical value by analyzing 4 years historical price data distributed into 10 deciles.  All of the years are weighted at 20% with the exception of the most recent year which is weighted at 40%. The prices are adjusted for inflation using the Producer Price Index (PPI).  

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