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Daily Natural Gas Market Update 10-12-23

By: Heather Wine, Senior Risk Manager - Energy

Daily Natural Gas Market Update
 
Heather Wine
Senior Risk Manager | (312) 373-8250
StoneX Financial Inc. - FCM Division
StoneX Value Matrix
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StoneX Market Indicator
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Fundamentals & Weather

Following 6 straight higher settlements, the spot month contract settled 0.5 cent lower Wednesday at $3.377.  Recent gains remained intact as a drop in daily production and rising exports offset lower demand over the next 2 weeks.  Output declined 1 BCF/day on Tuesday to 101.7 BCF and continues to hold this level as of this morning.  LNG feedgas demand has risen from Monday’s low of 12.7 BCF/day to an estimated 13.9 BCF/day as of today. 

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Reuters is calling for a build of 88 BCF in the week ended Oct 6.  This compares to last year’s build of 125 BCF and the 5 yr avg build of 93 BCF.  Early estimates for next week’s report suggest a build of 81 BCF.

In its winter fuels outlook, the EIA says inventories heading into winter will be at 3.85 TCF, the highest since 2020 despite lower than normal injections during the past 3 months.   

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The EIA has bumped up its nat gas supply outlook for Q4 of 2023 while simultaneously lowering its demand outlook.  Their consumption estimates for 4th quarter fell 1.27 BCF/day to 92.08 BCF/day.  For all of 2023, consumption is pegged at 89.17 BCF/day. Nat gas dry output is seen rising to 103.72 BCF/day this year and to 105.13 BCF/day in 2024.

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Maxar’s outlook for Nov remains unchanged with above normal readings expected in the northern Plains to the NE with cooler conditions in the South and West.  A total of 542 HDDs are expected which compares to Nov 2022’s total of 553.5.  
Prices are currently trading lower ahead of storage data. 
Technical Analysis
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The November 23 natural gas contract was down .157 or 4.6% in Wednesday’s morning trade as the contract tested 60-minute trend line support at the lower-3.200.

After holding above support at the 3.225 morning low, buyers came back in to bid the contract higher into the close erasing the early losses as it finished the day at 3.377, down just 5 ticks.

With support holding on Wednesday, the primary trend remains sideways to higher.

3.360-3.380 is near term resistance followed by 3.471 weekly high resistance.  The next key area of resistance is at 3.500-3.530.

A breakout above 3.500-3.530 would be a very bullish technical signal.

Trend line support reached on Wednesday is at 3.250-3.260 today.  A close under this trend line would turn 3.000-3.020 into the next area of support.

Moving Average Alignment – Bullish
Long Term Trend Following Index – Bullish
Short Term Trend Following Index – Bullish
Relative Strength Index – 69.94

Seasonal Prices
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Forward Curve Pricing
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