

Profit taking following a 20% decline in spot month futures this month along with forecasts showing increased, HHDs lifted nat gas prices on Monday. Gains were limited as temperatures over the next 2 weeks are still expected to average warmer than normal. Nov futures settled 5.4 cents higher at $2.312.

Since hitting a near term high of 14.4 BCF/day on Oct 17, LNG feedgas flows have been declining. Feedgas demand is being affected by unplanned reductions at Cameron LNG and Sabine Pass with overall flows estimated this morning at 12.1 BCF/day, down 0.7 BCF/day from Monday. Month to date, feedgas demand is averaging 13 BCF/day, down 0.5 BCF/day from Oct 2023.
Varying outages continue to dampen dry gas production. Output is coming in lower this morning, down 0.9 BCF/day at 100.7 BCF/day, due to a drop in the Appalachian Basin and weaker volumes in the Rockies. Output for October is averaging 1.9 BCF/day lower than Oct 2023 at 101.3 BCF/day.

Prices have turned higher following early session losses. Pressure had stemmed from the persistent decline in LNG exports while weather forecasts maintain expectations for an overall warm pattern over the next 2 weeks. Prices turned higher on the potential for a pattern change during the 11-15 day period.

The November 24 natural gas contract gained .054 on Monday closing at 2.312 after holding above 200 day moving average support on early weakness.
The November contract remains in a bearish downtrend after closing lower for 3 consecutive weeks. But trend following indicators on the 60-minute chart are showing bullish divergences possibly indicating a low is forming.
Weekly high resistance is at 2.369 followed by 2.445-2.450 where the 10 and 40 day moving averages have converged.
A close under 200 day moving average support at 2.235 today will keep the market in a bearish downtrend turning the 78% retracement of August-October uptrend at 2.120 into the next area of support.
Moving Average Alignment – Neutral
Long Term Trend Following Index – Bullish
Short Term Trend Follow Following Index - Bearish
Relative Strength Index - 37.76






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