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Daily Natural Gas Market Update 10-24-25

By: Heather Wine, Senior Risk Manager - Energy

StoneX Value Matrix

image-20251024085327-1

Source: StoneX Value Matrix (2), Bloomberg

Fundamentals & Weather

Nat gas prices extended losses yesterday as a surprisingly bearish storage report overshadowed support from colder weather forecasts.  The Nov contract settled 10.6 cents lower at $3.344.  

This morning’s 6-10 day outlook leans warmer in the West and cooler in the East. Above normal temps favor the West while below normal temps are predicted from the lower Midwest to the South.  The 11-15 day period features above normal temps from the West to the Central US early to mid period while slightly below normal temps along the East Coast warm to more normal levels late in the period. 

image 121473

Source: Bloomberg, CME

For the week ended Oct 17, the EIA reported a build of 87 BCF, bringing total gas in storage to 3.808 TCF.  The injection topped both last year and the 5 yr avg builds of 77 BCF and 79 BCF, respectively, and surpassed the average estimate by 6 BCF.  The year over year surplus is now 34 BCF while the 5 yr avg surplus stands at 164 BCF.  

The South Central region was behind the miss in expectations as renewable generation increased more than expected.  

Stocks have increased 2.035 TCF so far this injection season, the 7th largest build through this point since 2010.

Weather will be a key driver in determining whether injections continue past the traditional Oct 31 end to injection season. 

image 121474

Source: Bloomberg

LNG activity has been consistently strong this week.  LNG feedgas hit 17.3 BCF/day yesterday as flows to Freeport increased.  Feedgas demand is down slightly as of this morning, at 17 BCF/day.  Month to date, flows are averaging 16.5 BCF/day, up 3.5 BCF/day from last year. 

Feedgas flows are expected to increase heading into the end of the year and into early 2026. Demand is estimated to reach towards 20 BCF/day this winter given new export capacity and expansions along the Gulf Coast.

image 121475Source: NOAA

The spot month is currently trading 9 cents lower as storage levels could reach toward 4 TCF prior to heating season while forecasts for early November appear less supportive across the East. 

image-20251024085453-2

Source: Bloomberg, CME

The November 25 natural gas contract has been heavily sold since topping at a 3.572 high on Wednesday.  

After losing .024 on Wednesday, the November contract lost an additional .106 (3%) on Thursday to close the day at 3.344.  

The November contract is down again in today’s early trade as it nears key support at 3.205 level.  This is the 10 day moving average on the daily continuation chart as well as the 200-minute average on the 60-minute chart.

If 3.205 support is reached and broken, the top of the gap created on Monday’s open 3.130 will become the next area of support.  

In order to close the gap, the November contract will need to trade down to 3.025.  This gap will remain a bearish technical indicator until closed. 

Wednesday’s high is technically important as it coincides with the 200 day moving average.  It is also near the level the market last topped 3 weeks ago creating a double top reversal.

As long as the 200 day moving average holds as resistance, the longer term trend will remain sideways to down.

That said, a pre-winter seasonal low appears to be in place.

Moving Average Alignment – Neutral-Bullish
Long Term Trend Following Index – Bullish
Short Term Trend Follow Following Index - Bullish

Relative Strength Index - 53.99

image 121481

Source: Bloomberg, CME

image 121479

Source: Bloomberg, CME

image 121480

Source: Bloomberg, CME

image 121477

Source: Bloomberg, CME, StoneX Value Matrix (2)

image 121478

Source: Bloomberg, CME, StoneX Value Matrix (2)

Forward Curve Pricing

image 121482

Source: Bloomberg, CME

Disclaimer
(1)  The StoneX Commodity Indicator provides an overall view of market sentiment for a commodity based on the quantification of fundamental, technical and historical market data related to that commodity.  The StoneX Commodity Indicator History graphically represents each day’s actual very bearish to very bullish signal.  This history contains the sum of all factors, excluding weather forecasts.
(2) The StoneX Value Matrix provides a measure of historical value by analyzing historical price data distributed into 10 deciles. The prices are adjusted for inflation using the Producer Price Index (PPI) published by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.
 

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