By: Heather Wine, Senior Risk Manager - Energy
4-Year price deciles Normal & Redistributed
After hitting fresh 7 month lows early Monday, prices rebounded higher throughout the day on expectations for rising LNG export demand and oversold conditions. Export plants are likely to conclude seasonal maintenance in the coming weeks which will boost feedgas demand. Ending a 6 session losing streak, Nov futures settled 24 cents higher at $5.199.
Freeport LNG is getting closer to restarting after a fire caused the plant to shutdown in early June. While a mid to late November restart is expected, there have been reports of a tanker docking nearby. Freeport has apparently not yet requested permission to resume service. Cove Point, which shut down around Oct 1 is also likely to resume service near Nov 1 as maintenance typically lasts about 4 weeks.
A brief rise in heating demand is expected this week as colder temps settle into the Midwest. The start of November is still expected to see much warmer than normal conditions across the eastern US, which should keep res/comm usage at below normal levels.
Res/comm usage is projected to average 21.5 BCF/day over the next week.
Prices are trading higher on the day amid expectations that LNG feedgas demand will rise as plants begin to exit maintenance season over the coming weeks.
Total demand is coming in this morning 3.6 BCF higher on the day at 91.2 BCF/day due to rising heating demand. Res/comm usage is up 2.3 BCF/day at 19.7 BCF/day, with the biggest increase seen in the Midcon region. LNG feedgas is coming in 0.5 BCF/day higher at 11.7 BCF/day.
The spot November 22 natural gas contract traded down to a 4.750 morning low on Monday but rallied back higher into the close ending the session at 5.199, up .240.
Yesterday’s 4.750 low was technically important as it held above 4 point trend line support beginning at the June 2020 1.440 low. If support continues to hold, a pre-winter low will be in place.
5.470-5.500 is the next area of resistance followed by the 10 day moving average currently at 5.765.
4.750 remains primary support. If broken, the downtrend will continue with the December 2021 low at 3.500 becoming the next downside objective.
Relative Strength Index – 31.29
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