

Nat gas prices settled lower ahead of the weekend as forecasts showed seasonally mild weather continuing into late November, helping extend injection season. Further pressure stemmed from weakness in the cash market while Hurricane Rafael’s track shifted more westward, taking it away from the US coast. December NG settled 2.4 cents lower at $2.669.

Near term forecasts show the warmer than normal pattern continuing for the next 2 weeks across the East. The NWS 6-10 day outlook shows well above normal temps across the east while the west remains below normal. This will leave res/comm usage well below normal levels during this time. The span of above normal conditions narrows in the 8-14 day period while the 3-4 week outlook has taken out a big chunk of above normal conditions.
Following 2 consecutive weekly gains, the nag gas rig count remained steady last week at 102 rigs. This is down 16 rigs from a year ago.
Production Friday was estimated at 99.2 BCF/day, down from the 7 day avg of 100.4 BCF/day. Due to precautions, GOM output declined from 1.67 BCF/day at the start of last week to 1.34 BCF/day on Friday with about 10% of Gulf facilities evacuated. Production restraint is likely to continue over the coming months given the oversupply.

Nat gas prices have gapped higher this morning with the spot month currently trading 26 cents higher.

The spot December 24 natural gas contract gapped higher to begin the new week of trade and is currently up .230 trading near 2.900.
Today’s strength comes after the December contract consolidated in a sideways trade range last week holding above 10 and 40 day moving average support on the daily continuation chart. For the week, the December contract close up 3 ticks settling Friday at 2.669.
2.919, a high set two weeks ago, is near term resistance followed by 2.970-3.000.
2.970-3.000 is three point trend line resistance beginning at the January 2024 high.
The lower-3.000 area has been solid resistance throughout 2024. If broken, the June 3.159 high will become the next area of resistance.
2.748-2.769 is the open gap created overnight and is near term support. The 10 day moving average is the next area of support at 2.700 followed by the 40 day average at 2.600.
Moving Average Alignment – Bullish
Long Term Trend Following Index – Bearish
Short Term Trend Follow Following Index - Bullish
Relative Strength Index - 560.67






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