

Forecasts calling for chilly start to December sent nat gas prices higher on Monday but momentum was still not strong enough to break through the $3 level. Dec futures settled with a 15 cent gain at $2.974.

Total demand is up 5 BCF/day this morning due to increases across several sectors including power burn, res/comm and Mexican exports. Demand estimates for the coming 2 weeks reflect the arrival of colder temps. Res/comm usage is currently at 25.1 BCF/day and is expected to rise to 31.3 BCF/day during the 6-10 day period and to 34.7 BCF/day during the 8-14 day period. This will help push total demand to an average of 120.8 BCF/day during the this time.
Feedgas demand remains just under 14 BCF/day, estimated today at 13.8 BCF/day. Flows are expected to maintain this level over the next 2 weeks.
Temperatures are expected to turn cooler this week as cold air from Canada begins to move south into the West and Central US. Maxar expects colder temps to make their way into the eastern US during late November. Maxar’s 11-15 day forecast features widespread below normal temps with today’s outlook slightly colder than yesterday across the East Coast. T
The NWS is still showing a lack of cold along the East Coast and South Central US for Nov 26-Dec 2.

Prices are trading lower this morning as the market factors in forecasts for shift in the weather pattern against seasonally robust supplies.

The December 24 natural gas contract took another stab at lower-3.000 resistance on Monday rallying up to a 2.977 high before closing the day at 2.974, up .150.
The lower-3.000 area is 10-month trend line resistance beginning at the January 2024 and was tested on four occasions last week holding each time.
Resistance held again overnight with the a current high of 2.995. A close above 3.000 will turn the June 3.159 high into the next area of resistance.
If lower-3.000 resistance continues to hold, the market will remain in a sideways to lower range.
10 day moving average support is at 2.845 today followed by the 40 day moving average which held as support last week and is currently at 2.670.
Moving Average Alignment – Bullish
Long Term Trend Following Index – Bullish
Short Term Trend Follow Following Index - Bullish
Relative Strength Index - 58.39






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