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Daily Natural Gas Market Update 11-20-25

By: Heather Wine, Senior Risk Manager - Energy

StoneX Value Matrix

image-20251120085024-1

Source: StoneX Value Matrix (2), Bloomberg

Fundamentals & Weather

Nat gas rallied Wednesday, reversing losses from earlier this week given greater probability for much colder weather next month.  Weather models trended colder yesterday for the Northern US with some models even indicating a polar vortex.  Dec futures settled 17.9 cents higher at $4.55.

Weather patterns are expected to shift during the latter half of the 6-10 day period.  Above to much above normal temps dominate the East to start the period while below normal temps arrive early in the NW before expanding to the Midwest, South and East during the 2nd half of the period.  Below normal temps are expected from the Rockies to the Midwest.  

Cooler changes were made to the Weather Desk’s December forecast with greater coverage and intensity of cold is expected across the North and Central US. HDD’s rose by 25 to a total of 830 HDDs, which would be colder than 6 of the past 7 Decembers.  

image 122787

Source: Bloomberg, CME

Today’s storage report is expected to show the first withdrawal of the season.  Estimates call for a pull of 13 BCF for the week ended Nov 14, which is bullish when compared to last year’s build of 3 BCF and the 5 yr avg build of 12 BCF.  If correct, stocks would fall to 3.947 TCF.  Early estimates for next week’s report call for a build of 3 BCF versus the previous year’s 2 BCF withdrawal and the 5 yr avg draw of 25 BCF. 

image-20251119091735-2

Source: Bloomberg

LNG demand remains near record highs with the 7 day average at 18.3 BCF/day.  Demand is expected to rise even further next month given ongoing capacity expansions along the Gulf Coast. LNG feedgas flows are expected to average 18 BCF/day over the next 2 weeks.  

Output has been keeping up with the rise in export demand, averaging 107.2 BCF/day over the past week, up about 6 BCF/day from last year. Output is expected to average 107.4 BCF/day over the next 2 weeks. 

image 122788Source: NOAA

Prices have traded mixed this morning with the spot month currently down 2 cents. 

image-20251120085109-2

Source: Bloomberg, CME

The December 25 natural gas contract broke out above 10 day moving average resistance in Wednesday’s early trade renewing the bullish uptrend following a three day correction.

The December contract reached a 4.602 high on Wednesday before pulling back slightly into the close to settle the day at 4.550, up .179 (4.1%).

Wednesday’s rally failed to clear the 4.688 high set last week as resistance.  This resistance needs to be broken or the trend could quickly swing back down.

If 4.688 resistance is broken, the winter 2025 high at 4.900 will become the next upside objective.

10 day moving average support is at 4.480 today.  A close under 4.480 will turn the near term trend back down with Tuesday’s 4.235 low being the next area of support.

Longer term support is former trend line resistance on the December daily chart broken in late-October and is now support at 4.050.

Moving Average Alignment - Bullish

Long Term Trend Following Index – Bullish

Short Term Trend Follow Following Index - Bullish

Relative Strength Index - 66.59

image 122789

Source: Bloomberg, CME

image 122791

Source: Bloomberg, CME

image 122790

Source: Bloomberg, CME

image 121477

Source: Bloomberg, CME, StoneX Value Matrix (2)

image 121478

Source: Bloomberg, CME, StoneX Value Matrix (2)

Forward Curve Pricing

image 122792

Source: Bloomberg, CME

Disclaimer
(1)  The StoneX Commodity Indicator provides an overall view of market sentiment for a commodity based on the quantification of fundamental, technical and historical market data related to that commodity.  The StoneX Commodity Indicator History graphically represents each day’s actual very bearish to very bullish signal.  This history contains the sum of all factors, excluding weather forecasts.
(2) The StoneX Value Matrix provides a measure of historical value by analyzing historical price data distributed into 10 deciles. The prices are adjusted for inflation using the Producer Price Index (PPI) published by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.
 

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