StoneX logo

Daily Natural Gas Market Update 11-21-24

By: Heather Wine, Senior Risk Manager - Energy

Daily Natural Gas Market Update
 
Heather Wine
Senior Risk Manager | (312) 373-8250StoneX Financial Inc. - FCM Division Heather.Wine@stonex.com
StoneX Value Matrix
image-20241121083828-1
Source: StoneX Value Matrix (2), Bloomberg
StoneX Market Indicator
image-20241121083845-2
Source:  StoneX Market Indicator (1), Bloomberg
Fundamentals & Weather

The spot month nat gas contract soared higher Wednesday, extending the rally for a 4th straight session.   Prices climbed on expectations for stronger demand as a much colder weather pattern begins to take hold late Nov into early December. The Dec NG contract settled yesterday’s with a 19.5 cent gain at $3.193.

image 104231
Source: Bloomberg, CME

Yesterday’s outlook from Maxar showed a much colder end to November.  Despite this, the month is still on track to rank 5th warmest with 468 HDDs. Their outlook for December trends much colder across the East with above normal readings reduced to the southern US.  The month will start off colder than normal with widespread below to much below normal temps across the eastern 2/3.  An additional 30 HDDs were added in, leaving HDDs expectations at 820 which falls between the 10 and 30 yr norms but is much higher than last year’s 668.1.

image 104232​​​​
Source: Bloomberg

The market is likely to see the season’s last injection in this morning’s.  The EIA is expected to show a build of 6 BCF for the week ended Nov 15.  This compares to last year’s injection of 12 BCF and the 5 yr avg withdrawal of 16 BCF.  The supply/demand balance tightened last week by nearly 7 BCF/day as production fell 800 MMcf/day while heating demand rose 6.5 BCF/day week over week. 

With a colder pattern emerging,  we could see larger than normal withdrawals quickly develop. Early estimates for next week’s report range suggest a drawdown of 3 BCF, which compares to a 5 BCF build last year and a 5 yr avg draw of 30 BCF. 

​​image 104233
Source: NOAA

LNG feedgas demand remains supportive despite a downtick yesterday to 13.6 BCF/day.  Feedgas demand is back up this morning at 13.8 BCF/day.  LNG demand is likely to continue growing heading into winter, especially as Europe braces for colder winter conditions.  Exports will also get a boost once Plaquemines and Corpus Christi’s Stage 3 come online. 

Nat gas prices have thrusted higher this morning in response to weather forecasts with the Dec contract trading 20 cents higher.  The NWS outlooks seem to now be more in line with Maxar as they have added in more cold over the next 2 weeks.  This is especially the case for the 8-14 day period which now shows below normal readings across nearly the entire US.

 

image-20241121083936-3
Source: Bloomberg, CME

A very bullish breakout in the natural gas market on Wednesday as the spot December 24 contract was finally able to break out and close above lower-3.000 resistance.

The December contract gained .195 on Wednesday closing at 3.193, the 2nd highest close so far in 2024.  Volume was strong at 225,693 contracts.

The October 2024 high at 3.159 was broken on Wednesday turning the January 2024 high at 3.392 into the next area of resistance.

The January high is currently being tested on overnight buying.  If 3.392 resistance is broken, the November 2023 high at 3.630 will become the next upside objective.

The lower-3.000 level is now primary support followed by the 10 day moving average at 2.960.

Moving Average Alignment – Bullish
Long Term Trend Following Index – Bullish
Short Term Trend Follow Following Index - Bullish

Relative Strength Index -70.00

image 104236
Source: Bloomberg, CME
image 104234
Source: Bloomberg, CME
image 104235
Source: Bloomberg, CME
image 103919
Source: Bloomberg, CME, StoneX Value Matrix (2)
image 103918
Source: Bloomberg, CME, StoneX Value Matrix (2)
Forward Curve Pricing
image 104237
Source: Bloomberg, CME
 
Disclaimer

This material should be construed as the solicitation of an account, order, and/or services provided by the FCM Division of StoneX Financial Inc. (“SFI”) (NFA ID: 0476094) or StoneX Markets LLC (“SXM”) (NFA ID: 0449652) and represents the opinions and viewpoints of the author. It does not constitute an individualized recommendation or take into account the particular trading objectives, financial situations, or needs of individual customers. Additionally, this material should not be construed as research material. The trading of derivatives such as futures, options, and over-the-counter (OTC) products or “swaps” may not be suitable for all investors. Derivatives trading involves substantial risk of loss, and you should fully understand the risks prior to trading. Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results. 
All references to and discussion of OTC products or swaps are made solely on behalf of SXM. All references to futures and options on futures trading are made solely on behalf of SFI. SXM products are intended to be traded only by individuals or firms who qualify under CFTC rules as an ‘Eligible Contract Participant’ (“ECP”) and who have been accepted as customers of SXM.
SFI and SXM are not responsible for any redistribution of this material by third parties, or any trading decisions taken by persons not intended to view this material. Information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not guaranteed as to its accuracy. Contact designated personnel from SFI or SXM for specific trading advice to meet your trading preferences.

(1)  The StoneX Market Indicator provides an overall view of market sentiment for a commodity based on the quantification of fundamental, technical and historical market data related to that commodity.  The StoneX Market Indicator History graphically represents each day’s actual very bearish to very bullish signal.  This history contains the sum of all factors, excluding weather forecasts.
(2) The StoneX Value Matrix provides a measure of historical value by analyzing historical price data distributed into 10 deciles. The prices are adjusted for inflation using the Producer Price Index (PPI) published by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Reproduction or use in any format without authorization is forbidden. © Copyright 2024. All rights reserved.

 

  • Energy

This material should be construed as market commentary and represents the opinions and viewpoints of the author, and does not reflect tailored advice associated with any specific account.


The views are current only through the date stated and are subject to change at any time based upon market or other conditions, and StoneX Group Inc. (“SGI”) disclaims any responsibility to update such views. Actual results, performance, or achievements may differ materially from those expressed or implied. Information is based on data gathered from what we believe are reliable sources. Past performance does not guarantee future results.


The StoneX Group Inc. group of companies provides financial services worldwide through its subsidiaries, including physical commodities, securities, exchange-traded and over-the-counter derivatives, risk management, global payments and foreign exchange products in accordance with applicable law in the jurisdictions where services are provided.


References to certain OTC products or swaps are made on behalf of StoneX Markets, LLC (SXM), a member of the National Futures Association (NFA) and provisionally registered with the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as a swap dealer. SXM’s products are designed only for individuals or firms who qualify under CFTC rules as an ‘Eligible Contract Participant’ and who have been accepted as customers of SXM.


StoneX Financial Inc. (SFI) is a member of FINRA/NFA/SIPC and registered with the MSRB. SFI is registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) as a Broker-Dealer and with the CFTC as a Futures Commission Merchant and Commodity Trading Advisor. StoneX Financial (Canada) Inc. (SFCI) is registered in Canada and is a member of CIRO and CIPF. References to certain securities trading are made on behalf of the BD Division of SFI and are intended only for an audience of institutional clients as defined by FINRA Rule 4512(c). References to certain exchange-traded futures and options are made on behalf of the FCM Division of SFI. Wealth Management is offered through SA Stone Wealth Management Inc., member FINRA/SIPC, and SA Stone Investment Advisors Inc., an SEC-registered investment advisor, both wholly owned subsidiaries of SGI.

R.J. O’Brien & Associates, LLC (RJO) is registered with the CFTC as a Futures Commission Merchant and is a member of NFA.


StoneX Financial Ltd (SFL) is registered in England and Wales, company no. 5616586. SFL is authorized and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) (registration number FRN:446717) to provide services to professional and eligible customers including: arrangement, execution and, where required, clearing derivative transactions in exchange traded futures and options. SFL is also authorized to engage in the arrangement and execution of transactions in certain OTC products, certain securities trading, precious metals trading and payment services to eligible customers. SFL is authorized and regulated by the FCA under the Payment Services Regulations 2017 for the provision of payment services. SFL is a category 1 ring-dealing member of the London Metal Exchange. In addition SFL also engages in other physically delivered commodities business and other general business activities which are unregulated and not required to be authorized by the FCA.


StoneX Financial Pte Ltd (Co. Reg. No 201130598R) (“SFP”) is regulated by the Monetary Authority of Singapore and is a Capital Markets Service Licence holder (for dealing in capital market products), an Exempt Financial Adviser (for advising on investment products and issuing or promulgating analyses/ reports on investment products) and a Major Payment Institution (for domestic and cross-border money transfer services).


SFP may distribute analysis/report produced by its respective foreign affiliates within the StoneX Group of companies pursuant to an arrangement under Regulation 32C of the Financial Advisers Regulations Recipients should contact SFP at (65) 6309 1000 for any matters arising from, or in connection with, this webinar.


StoneX APAC Pte. Ltd. (“SAP”) (Co. Reg. No 200616676W) is regulated as a Dealer (PS20190001002) under the Precious Stones and Precious Metals (Prevention of Money Laundering and Terrorism Financing) Act 2019 for purposes of anti-money laundering and countering the financing of terrorism.


StoneX Financial (HK) Limited (CE No.: BCQ152) (“SHK”) is regulated by the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission for Dealing in Securities and Dealing in Futures Contracts.


StoneX Financial Pty Ltd (ACN 141 774 727) holds an Australian Financial Service License (AFSL: 345646) for Dealing in Securities, Exchange-Traded Derivatives Contracts, OTC Derivatives Contracts and Foreign Exchange Contracts, and is regulated by the Australian Securities and Investments Commission.


StoneX Securities Co., Ltd. (“SSJ”) (Co. Reg. No 010401047199) is regulated by the Japanese Financial Services Agency as a Type-I Financial Instruments Business Operator (Kanto Local Finance Bureau (FIBO)No.291’), is a member of the Financial Futures Association of Japan for dealing and broking FX and FX Option transactions, and is a member of the Japan Securities Dealers Association for dealing and broking stock indices and option transactions.


Trading swaps and over-the-counter derivatives, exchange-traded derivatives and options and securities involves substantial risk and is not suitable for all investors. Past performance of any futures or option is not indicative of future success. Indicators are not a trading system and are not published as a specific trade recommendation. The information herein is not a recommendation to trade nor investment research or an offer to buy or sell any derivative or security. It does not take into account your particular investment objectives, financial situation or needs and does not create a binding obligation on any of the StoneX group of companies to enter into any transaction with you. You are advised to perform an independent investigation of any transaction to determine whether any transaction is suitable for you. No part of this material may be copied, photocopied or duplicated in any form by any means or redistributed without the prior written consent of StoneX Group Inc.


The report/analysis herein is not directed to, or intended for distribution to or use by, any person or entity who is a citizen or resident of or located in any locality, state, country or other jurisdiction where such distribution, publication, availability or use would be contrary to law or regulation.


1. PRECIPICE DISCLAIMER: This communication includes data and analytics supplied by Precipice Analytics. StoneX does not own, control, create, or author this data and has not independently verified its accuracy. StoneX does not endorse its use for anything other than informational purposes. You are advised that Precipice Analytics technology may be protected by intellectual property and other rights that prohibit the unauthorized use and dissemination of the information contained herein.

2. MARKET INDICATOR DISCLAIMER: The StoneX Market Indicator provides an overall view of market sentiment for a commodity based on the quantification of fundamental, technical and historical market data related to that commodity. The StoneX Market Indicator History graphically represents each day’s actual very bearish to very bullish signal. This history contains the sum of all factors, excluding weather forecasts.

3. VALUE MATRIX DISCLAIMER: The StoneX Value Matrix provides a measure of historical value by analyzing historical price data distributed into 10 deciles. The prices are adjusted for inflation using the Producer Price Index (PPI) published by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.


© 2026 StoneX Group Inc. All Rights Reserved.

Satellite view of Earth at night showing illuminated cities across Asia and the Middle East

Discover more insights

Our subscribers have access to comprehensive market analysis from StoneX spanning commodities, equities, currencies and more.

Related articles for Energy

Perspective: Morning Commentary for August 11

August 11 – It was generally a quiet night for the markets until early this morning when a headline hit that Iran and Oman were close to reaching a deal. Stock futures rallied, while the dollar index followed Treasury yields lower, along with active selling in the energy- and food-based commodities. The headline had limited impact though in a world that has become skeptical of promises of peace. Stock futures remain steady to firmer at this hour, while the VIX trades near 16 – just above 2026 lows. The dollar index is trading near 99.8 this morning, after recovering from its early morning selloff over the following hour of trade. Yields on 10-year Treasuries are trading near 4.69%, while yields on 2-year Treasuries trade near 4.22%. WTI crude oil is trading near $82 per barrel at this hour, while Brent trades near $88. The grain and oilseed markets are mostly weaker, after failing to recover from this morning’s early selloff that started in the crude oil market.

Arlan Suderman
Arlan Suderman
  • Grains & Oilseeds
  • Energy
  • Dairy
  • Renewable Fuels
  • Cocoa
  • Coffee
  • Cotton
  • Sugar
  • Meats & Livestock
  • Forest Products

Perspective: Morning Commentary for August 10

August 10 – The world commodity markets and economy remains at risk amid two wars this morning. Tensions continue to escalate in both the Middle East and the Black Sea – risking pulling other countries into the conflicts. Stocks are down modestly this morning as we start a week of trade in which we’ll see key inflation and retail sales data following a weak jobs report this past Friday. Yet, stocks continue to trade just below record high levels, with the VIX trading near 2026 lows just above 15. The dollar index is trading near 99.7. Yields on 10-year Treasuries are trading near 4.68%, while yields on 2-year Treasuries are trading near 4.23%. The energy and food-based markets are firmer today amid the escalated risks. WTI crude oil is trading near $80, while Brent trades near $85 per barrel. Double-digit gains in the winter wheat markets lead the way for higher grain and oilseed prices.

Arlan Suderman
Arlan Suderman
  • Grains & Oilseeds
  • Energy
  • Dairy
  • Renewable Fuels
  • Cocoa
  • Coffee
  • Cotton
  • Sugar
  • Meats & Livestock
  • Forest Products

WTI and Brent Crude Are Now Reading the Strait of Hormuz Differently

WTI and Brent crude are moving to different beats as a possible U.S. Iran deal reshapes the oil market. The two benchmarks are pricing Strait of Hormuz risk in their own ways, and the gap between them says a lot about where crude goes next.

Editorial Team
Editorial Team
  • Energy
StoneX: We open markets

Our market expertise, advanced platforms, global reach, culture of full transparency and commitment to our clients’ success all set us apart in the financial marketplace.

Reach

With access to 40+ derivatives exchanges, 180+ foreign exchange markets, nearly every global securities marketplace and numerous bilateral liquidity venues, StoneX’s digital network and deep relationships can take clients anywhere they want to go.

Transparency

As a publicly traded company meeting the highest standards of regulatory compliance in the markets we serve, our financials and track record are matters of public record. StoneX’s commitment to “doing the right thing over the easy thing” sets us apart in the industry and helps us build respect, client trust and new partnerships.

Expertise

From our proprietary Market Intelligence platform to “boots-on-the-ground” expertise from award-winning traders and professionals, we connect our clients directly to actionable insights they can use to make more informed decisions and achieve their goals in the global markets.