

Following a 5 day surge higher, nat gas prices pulled back on Friday amid profit taking ahead of tomorrow’s Dec contract expiration. Steady production levels last week in response to higher prices also played a role in Friday’s decline. Dec NG settled 21 cents lower at $3.129.

Anticipation of much colder temperatures for late November continues to drive the market higher this morning. Total demand is coming in this morning at 112.9 BCF/day. Platts estimates total demand will rise about 17 BCF/day during the 8-14 day period to an average of 129.5 BCF/day.
LNG feedgas fell to 13.3 BCF/day on Sunday but is back up this morning at 13.9 BCF/day, on par with Friday’s level. Volumes at Plaquemines are expected to ramp up over the coming weeks.
November has been an anomalously warm month across the East but changes are on the way. Weather forecasts on Friday suggested significantly colder temps for the approaching 6-10 day period. A forecast of 370.1 HDDs was expected for the next 15 days, higher than last year’s 343.5 HDDs for the same timeframe.
Much colder weather will emerge in the Rockies and Midwest by midweek. The colder air will then push south and east later this week, causing a surge in heating demand. By the end of Nov, highs will only top out in the teens across the Northern Plains.

Nat gas prices have resumed the upside this morning on expectations for stronger heating needs later this week.
Due to Thanksgiving, storage data will be released on Wednesday of this week. Estimates call for a draw of 5 BCF for the week ended Nov 15, which compares to the 5 yr avg draw of 36 BCF.

For a 2nd week in a row, the December 24 natural gas contract has gapped higher to begin the new week of trade opening the overnight session at 3.356.
In last week’s trade, the December contract rallied up to a new 11-month contract high at 3.563 on Friday but sold off into the close. Daily settle on Friday came in at 3.129, down .210 or 6.8% for the day.
For the week, the December contract was up .306 or 10.9% with much of the gains coming late last week following Wednesday’s breakout above lower-3.000 trend line resistance.
Last week’s 3.563 is technically important as it came in near the same level the market topped in November 2023 at 3.630. The November 2023 high was the top for prices in winter 2023-2024 and remains primary resistance.
If 3.630 resistance is broken, 3.990-4.000 and 4.750 will become the next upside objectives.
Former resistance at 3.000-3.020 is now primary support which coincides with the 10 day moving average currently at 3.045.
Moving Average Alignment – Bullish
Long Term Trend Following Index – Bullish
Short Term Trend Follow Following Index - Bullish
Relative Strength Index - 65.24






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